FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

Prediction: DET 23, PHI 27 (Line: PHI by 5)

Updated Player: Titus Young

Players to Watch: Mikel Leshoure, Michael Vick

The 1-3 Lions come off their bye having last lost to the visiting Vikings in a game that signals this is no longer 2011. The Eagles are 3-2 and 2-0 at home though they have struggled to score any points and have been held to fewer than 20 in all but one game. The Lions on the road are likely to lose this one because quite simply they turned back into a pumpkin after a magical 2011 season.

Detroit Lions
Homefield: Ford Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 STL 27-23 10 @MIN -----
2 @SF 19-27 11 GB -----
3 @TEN 41-44 12 HOU -----
4 MIN 13-20 13 IND -----
5 BYE ----- 14 @GB -----
6 @PHI ----- 15 @ARI -----
7 @CHI ----- 16 ATL -----
8 SEA ----- 17 CHI -----
9 @JAC ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Stats | Roster
DET @ PHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Matthew Stafford 250,2
WR Golden Tate 3-40
PK Matt Prater 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Lions get the short straw this year with an early bye and now four road games in the next five weeks. There is nothing easy about the Lions schedule and the only game that might be considered soft is against the Colts who are getting better. Otherwise - this is a very tough slate of games left to play.

Matt Stafford is probably not going to throw for 5000 yards this year. Not unless they change the rules and let him play with no defense on the field. Because Stafford only has thee passing touchdowns on the year against four interceptions. Not unlike Tony Romo, he has the yardage and already topped 300 yards twice. But the scores are just not there.

All the upcoming road games are going to make the ineffective rushing attack look even worse. Kevin Smith has dropped so far that he hasn't had a touch since week two. Mikel Leshoure was great in the Titans game but only managed 26 yards on 13 runs against the Vikings. He has turned in four receptions for around 35 yards both weeks to salvage some fantasy value but this offense needs a home game against a soft defense to hope that Leshoure can play a significant role. Chances are pretty good he won't look any better by the time November rolls around.

Calvin Johnson was handled by the Vikings but otherwise he has been a stud with 90+ yards in all other games. He has just one score this year though. Nate Burleson remains just a mediocre #2 and Titus Young only has one catch per game other than the Tennessee tilt. Johnson is the only wideout that matters and he is getting little help from the others.

Brandon Pettigrew has offered moderate consistnecy with around 60 or 70 yards per week but has only scored once. Pettigrew has also been dropping passes in recent games as well.

Last year was the aberation because these Lions are back to the same problems. No passing game beyond Calvin Johnson a and a decreasing ability to score. The defense that was so surprising in 2011 has yet to hold anyone to under 20 points.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DET 7 8 10 3 1 30
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 4 12 13 6 25 30

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Matthew Stafford, DET @CHI 10000028010 ***
Chicago has been stout vs. QBs, giving up only one TD pass in the last four games (86 completions). That is the stiffest rate in football. Four interceptions and 225.5 yards allowed later, this is the third-worst opponent of the week. Stafford averaged a modest 17 fantasy points vs. the Bears in last year's two games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ameer Abdullah, DET @CHI 5011100000 ***
The Bears rank as the 10th-easiest defense for gaining rushing yards and racking up rushing TDs. Abdullah could turn in a decent game, if you're willing to take the risk. This one is probably much closer to being a coin toss than a lock.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Theo Riddick, DET @CHI 1005500000 ***
Chicago's defense has granted running backs 6.5 receptions (8th) and the 17th-highest average (42.3) aerial yards. None of the 26 catches permitted since Week 5 have found the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Golden Tate, DET @CHI 005801000 ***
Tate is always the safest bet among Detroit's receiving corps. The Bears, though, won't be a friendly opponent. Since Week 5, only one time has a reception gone into the end zone. That's 42 catches worth. Chicago is the eighth-hardest opponent in PPR and seventh-worst in standard. He generated a total of just 12.8 PPR points in two games last year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marvin Jones Jr., DET @CHI 005700000 ***
Jones' streak of quality play game to a crashing halt last week. It may need to wait a week before getting back on course. The Bears rate as the eighth-best defense of the position and have allowed only one TD in the last four games, spanning 41 catches. He was good for 12.4 and 10.7 PPR points in the two 2016 meetings.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kenny Golladay, DET @CHI 002400000 ***
Golladay returned last week but is hard to bank on in fantasy. Consider him nothing more than a contrarian play in huge DFS contests.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Eric Ebron, DET @CHI 003300000 ***
Chicago is the second-worst matchup of the week, and Ebron might as well be the second-worst tight end of the year.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Matt Prater, DET @CHI 2222 ***
Chicago offers a midrange matchup. Fourteen of the 15 kicks have been good, and the best part is nine of them were field goals. The volume prevents this from being an elite matchup.

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 17-16 10 DAL -----
2 BAL 24-23 11 @WAS -----
3 @ARI 6-27 12 CAR -----
4 NYG 19-17 13 @DAL -----
5 @PIT 14-16 14 @TB -----
6 DET ----- 15 CIN -----
7 BYE ----- 16 WAS -----
8 ATL ----- 17 @NYG -----
9 @NO ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Torrey Smith 5-100,1
TE Brent Celek 6-70,1

Pregame Notes: The Eagles have been in four games all decided by three points or less and only lost the Pittsburgh game. That is living right but a scary proposition to continue to struggle offensively. Michael Vick has not thrown an interception since the six he had in the first two weeks abut once again last week he lost two fumbles. With games that are always nailbiters each week, losing the ball a total of 11 times in five games makes the 3-2 record a surprise.

VIck has passed for at least one score in all but one game but his passing yardage has really waned. He posted two 300+ yard efforts to start the year and now he cannot get past 240 yards. Against the Steelers he only managed 175 yards. Vick is also not running much which has really hurt his fantasy value and contributuion to the team. The good news is that he has been better at home than on the road and faces a weaker team finally. It ends up going against BAL, ARI, NYG and PIT was not the easiest opening for a season.

Vick sustained a knee contusion against the Steelers but it is not expected to be a problem in this game.

LeSean McCoy was a touchdown machine last year but so far has just one rushing touchdown and another one as a reciever. Again - his best games other than in Cleveland were the two homestands versus the Ravens and Giants. McCoy is not sharing the ball and he gets whatever is there to get. But so far he is off his 2011 pace and has a glaring lack of touchdowns. McCoy's knee was swollen after the game last week but he is expected to be fine this week and the knee will not be an issue.

Brent Celek scored last week in Pittsbriugh but only turned in three catches for nine yards. He has been at his best in home games so far but only against better defenses that limit the wideouts. That is less likely this week.

Where the decline in offense is pronounced is with the wide receivers. DeSean Jackson scored only once so far and two of his last three games were under 60 yard. Jeremy Maclin has been hampered by a sore hip from back in week two and after sitting out in week three, he has been a non-factor in games. Maclin started the year with a score in both games but has returned nothing to fantasy owners since.

The Eagles at home should be able to handle the Lions without too much trouble and hopefully break their constant trend to remain within three points to all opponents. The Lions rank decent enough against the fantasy positions but have only faced STL, SF, TEN and MIN. This should be a good win.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 15 23 19 9 24 29
Preventing Fantasy Points DET 11 6 11 27 30 32

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Carson Wentz, PHI @DAL 0000024030 ***
Well-rested, Wentz and Co. take on a Dallas defense that is likely to be without its top playmaker. Fantasy-wise, this group has given up only 19.9 points per game, which is the 19th-highest average. Wentz faces a unit allowing a TD every 19 completions.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jay Ajayi, PHI @DAL 8011100000 *
This is a rather negative matchup. The Cowboys have given up only 66.8 rushing yards (28th) and a touchdown every 36 rushing attempts (12th), or two scores in the past four games. The 'Boys could give up more production with LB Sean Lee likely out of action.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Corey Clement, PHI @DAL 2001200000 *
Clement was a fantasy darling a few weeks ago but is a risky proposition for Week 11 lineups. Dallas has yielded just two TDs over the past 94 offensive touches (19th).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeGarrette Blount, PHI @DAL 300000000 *
The matchup isn't worthy of tossing Blount into a fantasy lineup without being in a dire situation. With Jay Ajayi gaining extra time via the bye week to study up, expect a lessened role for Blount.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Nelson Agholor, PHI @DAL 004601000 ***
We've seen countless times this year how Agholor's fantasy worth is directly tied to finding the end zone. Dallas has given up only three WR TDs in the past four games, so there is a hint of hope here. This is a slightly optimistic projection, but it's absolutely worth gambling on in fantasy lineups.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Alshon Jeffery, PHI @DAL 002401000 ***
Receivers have averaged 13 receptions (7th) for 157.3 yards (13th) and a TD every 17.3 grabs (23rd), which shows Dallas has done a sound job of the proverbial bending without breaking. This project really could go either way, but expecting a brilliant day from Jeffery would be asking a bit much.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Ertz, PHI @DAL 005701000 ***
Ertz should be healthy after the bye week and ready to resume his dominant season. The Cowboys have given up two tight end scores in the past four games, and this is an overall neutral matchup. In Week 17 last year, he exploded for 13 catches, 139 yards and two TDs vs. a largely resting Dallas team.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jake Elliott, PHI @DAL 1144 ***
The matchup is solidly negative based on fantasy points allowed, with one missed field goal and an inaccurate point-after try. The potential for more is definitely real.

WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

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