Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

Prediction: GB 20, HOU 24 (Line: HOU by 5)

Players Updated: Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, Greg Jennings, Jermichael Finley

Players to Watch: James Starks, Alex Green

The 2-3 Packers bring their 0-2 road record to Houston where the 5-0 Texans come off a short week.The Packers offensive strengths match the Texans defensive strength. I'll raise you one Arian Foster and rake in the chips.

Green Bay Packers
Homefield: Lambeau Field
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SF 22-30 10 BYE -----
2 CHI 23-10 11 @DET -----
3 @SEA 12-14 12 @NYG -----
4 NO 28-27 13 MIN -----
5 @IND 27-30 14 DET -----
6 @HOU ----- 15 @CHI -----
7 @STL ----- 16 TEN -----
8 JAC ----- 17 @MIN -----
9 ARI ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
GB @ HOU Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 20 260,2
WR Randall Cobb 4-60
WR Jordy Nelson 2-40
TE Martellus Bennett 3-30
TE Lance Kendricks 2-20
PK Mason Crosby 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Packers drag their losing record down to Houston with a couple of notable injuries and an inability to score more than 28 points in any game. The Packers were a scoring machine in 2011 but now struggle to post more than two touchdowns against all but the weakest of defenses. Their last three games were all decided by three points or less and came one point away from being a 1-4 record. Playing on the road has been even tougher for the Packers who now miss Cedric Benson, Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley has a bad shoulder.

Aaron Rodgers has bounced back with seven touchdowns in the last two weeks but facing the Saints and Colts have made that happen. Against the tougher defenses of Seattle and Chicago he only totals one touchdown and passed for no more than 223 yards in either game. Rodgers has also been hurt by worse pass blocking and has 21 sacks already this year with 13 coming in just the two games against those two good defenses. Rodgers is dealing with a diminished set of receivers thanks to injuries and this year has not been good enough to rise above the challenges.

Cedric Benson suffered a Lis franc injury to his foot and will be out at least eight weeks meaning he won't show up until the end of the year if even then. In his place the Packers are likely to use a committee between Alex Green who they cannot trust with a full load and James Starks who has been out with a turf toe but should be ready to return. The reality is that even left to just one runner, the rushing stats here have been marginal and Benson had just one touchdown on the year.

Jermichael Finley says that he will play this week though HC Mike McCarthy was less certain after he suffered a shoulder injury last week. Finley has not scored since the season opener and has been stuck at four catches for moderate yardage every week when healthy anyway.

Greg Jennings missed last week with his groin injury and is no lock to return for this game. In his place James Jones has been very effective with two scores in each of the last two games though only around 50 yards in each. In a matter of just two games as a replacement for Jennings, Jones is now the scoring leader for the Packers with five touchdowns. No one else has more than just one. Randall Cobb just had his first touchdown last week and has also seen a nice uptick in receptions and yardage since Jennings left. Jordy Nelson has been unable to rekindle the magic he had in 2011 when he was a scoring machine in every home game. His only truly good fantasy game came at home against the Saints when he posted 93 yards and one score on eight catches. Otherwise he has just struggled to do anything in road games where he has only caught two passes for no more than 30 yards in either Seattle or Indianapolis. He's barely relevant at home and nearly invisible when he is away.

This does not match up well with the Texans who have not allowed more than two scores to any opposing quarterback and after five games no running back has scored a rushing touchdown. The only decent game by a runner was shockingly Chris Johnson when the Texans openly allowed the Titans to run draws when they were hopelessly behind on the scoreboard. Worse yet there have only been two touchdowns given up to any wide receivers and none of them had more than 50 receiving yards in Houston.

Gaining Fantasy Points GB 10 26 3 12 30 19
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 3 8 4 8 3 8

QB Aaron Rodgers, GB @DET 10000028040 ***
Rodgers threw for only 205 yards in the Week 3 meeting, but four of his 15 completions found the end zone for a cool 28.5 fantasy points. Last year, at Detroit, he tossed a pair of TDs, ran for one, and threw for 273 yards with an interception. The Lions have yielded only six passing TDs in their last five games, or one every 19.5 completions. The secondary is an injury-riddled mess, however, so Rodgers should have a field day.
RB Ty Montgomery, GB @DET 5004300000 ***
Montgomery takes on a Lions defense that cannot possibly account for all of the weapons in Green Bay's offense. This defense give up two scores last week to Zeke Elliott and is battered with injuries.
WR Jordy Nelson, GB @DET 0071002000 ***
Nelson should have no problem finding room to roam against the Lions' banged up secondary. Detroit has surrendered five TDs to the position in the last two games, and Nelson scored two of his own in the Week 3 contest.
WR Davante Adams, GB @DET 004501000 ***
Adams caught 2-23-1 in the Week 3 meeting, but he has exploded since that game. The Packers travel to Detroit this time, and the Lions have allowed five receiver TDs in the last two games alone. This secondary is ravaged with injuries.
TE Lance Kendricks, GB @DET 004400000 ***
Arizona has been stout against the position all year, and Kendricks is too hit or miss to be trusted.
TE Martellus Bennett, GB @DET 003400000 ***
Miami is the second softest opponent for tight ends to exploit in Week 17. The Week 2 meeting resulted in Bennett posting five catches for 114 yards and a TD.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mason Crosby, GB @DET 1144 ***
Detroit has allowed the fourth lowest weekly average of field goal chances, but all 12 extra points in the last five games have gone through. Most of them came against Dallas last week.

Houston Texans
Homefield: Reliant Stadium
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 MIA 30-10 10 @CHI -----
2 @JAC 27-7 11 JAC -----
3 @DEN 31-25 12 @DET -----
4 TEN 38-14 13 @TEN -----
5 @NYJ 23-17 14 @NE -----
6 GB ----- 15 IND -----
7 BAL ----- 16 MIN -----
8 BYE ----- 17 @IND -----
9 BUF ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
HOU vs GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Brandon Weeden 240,1
RB Lamar Miller 30,1
PK Nick Novak 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Texans join the Falcons as the only unbeaten teams in the NFL and with three straight home games coming up, that may not change. The schedule becomes much more challenging starting in week ten with four road trips out of five weeks but these Texans are the real deal and their defense will always help them to stay in every game. Add in one of the top rushing attacks in the league and it is a safe bet that the Texans will be still busy in January.

One notable here - ILB and 2011 team MVP Brian Cushing appears to have torn his ACL on Monday night and that will poke a hole in an otherwise great defense.

Matt Schaub is still mostly a game manager and has the luxury of usually playing with a lead. He has scored in all but one game but rarely has more than low 200's in passing yardage and has only eight passing scores over five games played. But he has just two interceptions on the season and never has to throw more than 35 times in any game. With a dominating ground game, Schaub is hard to rely on for a big game because the easier the opponent is, the more likely he'll just hand off for most of the day.

Arian Foster is the top fantasy back in most leagues and has a NFL-best six touchdowns on the season with 106 rushing yards per game. He has not had even a remotely moderate game this year since he has scored every week and produced solid yardage though with minimal receptions. Brandon Tate has been out with a toe injury but his replacement Justin Forsett only gained six yards on four carries against the Jets and is no jeopardy of keeping the back-up spot when Tate is healthy. Safe assumption this week with the Packers visiting is that the Texans will be running the ball no less than they have every week.

The only bad fantasy surprise this year is that Owen Daniels has become the preferred target for Schaub and has scored in each of the last three games while turning in 70 yard or so almost every week. That is bad because Andre Johnson has become an afterthought in this offense and was held to only one catch for 15 yards by the Jets. Worse yet he dropped two of his six targets. No other receiver here remotely matters. Kevin Walter has the only touchdown among wideouts.

This should be interesting since the Packers have a good rushing defense that has only allowed one rushing touchdown for a running back back in the season opener and held all but Frank Gore to under 100 rushing yards. But this is the best rushing team that the Packers have faced and on the road no less. The pass defense has given up two or more touchdowns in all but one game. The Texans are on a shorter week but back at home will be good enough here.

Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 23 2 31 7 7 3
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 24 13 21 22 14 15

QB Tom Savage, HOU @TEN 0000023011 *
Savage will start in Week 17 even though Houston has nothing to play for against the Titans. Tennessee is a top-12 matchup, as this defense has given up the sixth most yards per game in the last five weeks. Starting Savage could brutalize your chances of winning.
RB Alfred Blue, HOU @TEN 4003200000 ***
Blue will again shoulder the load if Lamar Miller cannot go, and Houston would be foolish to chance it without anything to gain. Tennessee is the third strongest opponent of RBs entering Week 17.

Update: Miller has been ruled out of Week 17.
WR Braxton Miller, HOU @TEN 002301000 **
Tennessee has given up a TD per game to wideouts since Week 11. This is the third best overall matchup for PPR scoring, but Miller is nothing more than a wild flier.
WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU @TEN 004500000 *
Tennessee provides a brilliant matchup, but Hopkins may not play a lot since Houston has nothing on the line. The Titans have provided the third most points per game since Week 11 in PPR scoring. Nuk caught only one pass for four yards in Week 4 with Brock Osweiler under center.
WR Will Fuller, HOU @TEN 004400000 *
Fuller had a nice game in Week 4 versus the Titans, going for 81 yards on seven catches, including a score. That was with Brock Osweiler, and the Texans have obviously moved on. Fuller is a barely viable play in deep setups for flex spots.
TE C.J. Fiedorowicz, HOU @TEN 005400000 **
CJF contributed a 4-48-1 line in the Week 4 game against Tennessee. The Titans have put the clamps on his position of late, so this one probably could go either way.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Novak, HOU @TEN 3311 ***
Novak has made all 13 of his field goal tries in the past five weeks, but Houston has afforded him only six touchdown-capping kicks (four made). Tennessee is a neutral matchup for the position.

BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

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