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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

Prediction: KC 17, TB 23 (Line: TB by 3.5)

Player Updated: Jon Baldwin

Players to Watch: Brady Quinn

The 1-4 Chiefs are 1-1 on the road thanks to the Saints and head to face the 1-3 Buccaneers are fresh off their bye and ready face the easiest two game stretch of their season. This is no "gimmee" game because that simply would never exist for either team but has to favor the rested, prepared and at home Buccaneers.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT -----
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN -----
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN -----
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR -----
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE -----
6 @TB ----- 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK ----- 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
KC @ TB Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith 10 240,1

Pregame Notes: The Chiefs biggest problem - aside from a defense that has ranked as one of the worst until last week - was the passing game under Matt Cassel. While the team still stood behind him as the starter, there were plenty of rumblings that Cassel was not long for being a starter and that his inability to score compared to his ability to lose the ball presented a bad ratio. Like five passing scores against nine interceptions and four lost fumbles.

A concussion last week made the switch they were contemplating anyway and now Brady Quinn will take the reins and likely show once again why he has been a mostly just a backup for his six years in the NFL. His last start came in Cleveland four years ago. He gets the benefit of the perception "well he cannot be any worse."

The entirety of the offense not only runs through Jamaal Charles who leads the NFL with 515 rushing yards, but HC Romeo Crennel said the 30 carries against the Ravens were not enough. Be still my fantasy heart. For the last three weeks, Charles has been a machine with no real signs of the knee injury that ended his 2011 season. He is not only back to form but Peyton Hillis has been out with a bad ankle and Shane Draughn does very little to get in the way of Charles who already has two games with 30 or more carries. Charles is about the only thing that has worked in Kansas City aside from late game catches by Dwayne Bowe when the opponent doesn't care anymore.

The tight ends are among the least used in the entire league. Bowe has been generally solid every week with at least 60 yards and twice he has topped 100 yards with a score thanks to trash time in losses. Jonathan Baldwin has never gained more than 62 yards in any game and generally has less than 50 yards, He took a promising 2011 and has just been mediocre at best this year. Steve Breaston only has four catches total and Dexter McCluster has declined to where he never even had a pass last week.

Brady Quinn is not likely to energize this offense and traveling to Tampa Bay means hoping that somehow Jamaal Charles is going to be enough to win the game. He'll keep them in it, but he's not enough to win it and he doesn't play defense.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 25 1 28 30 18 26
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 25 14 30 13 24 12

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Alex Smith, KC @NYG 10000032030 ***
Smith comes back from his bye week to face fantasy's best matchup for quarterbacks. New York is the worst team at defending in yardage, points per play, yards per completion, and fantasy points surrendered per contest. The Giants have permitted a touchdown pass every 9.1 completions, which ranks tied fourth.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Kareem Hunt, KC @NYG 8004400000 ***
This is largely a moderate matchup on the ground and through the air. The Giants have not given up a receiving score on the last 20 grabs, but this is the ninth-best matchup for rushing TD frequency. This is the 10th-best matchup for overall yardage production on a weekly basis.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyreek Hill, KC @NYG 0051001000 ***
Following a week off to recover from some bumps and bruises, Hill gets to face the second-best matchup of Week 11. The Giants have given up six TDs to WRs in the last four games, and only Houston has provided more yardage on a weekly basis.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Demarcus Robinson, KC @NYG 003500000 ***
Robinson has seen an uptick in playing time since Chris Conley went down. Wideouts have averaged 13.8 receptions for 215.3 yards and a TD ever 9.2 catches, or 1.5 per game, since Week 5. The Chiefs are coming back from a bye week and could give Robinson a few chances to make a big play. Starting him isn't exactly the safest move one can make, but it could pay off.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Travis Kelce, KC @NYG 0071002000 ***
The Giants have given up a touchdown every game this year to the position. KC comes back from his bye week and takes on a team allowing a TD every four catches by tight ends. This is the second-best matchup in both scoring formats.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Harrison Butker, KC @NYG 3333 ***
All but two of the 22 kicks (both field goals) have made their final destination against the Giants. Despite missing two field goals, 1.5 per game have made it through the pipes. This is a top-12 matchup.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CAR 16-10 10 SD -----
2 @NYG 34-41 11 @CAR -----
3 @DAL 10-16 12 ATL -----
4 WAS 22-24 13 @DEN -----
5 BYE ----- 14 PHI -----
6 KC ----- 15 @NO -----
7 NO ----- 16 STL -----
8 @MIN ----- 17 @ATL -----
9 @OAK ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TB vs KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 10 210,1
RB Doug Martin 70,1 2-20
RB Jacquizz Rodgers 40 4-30
WR DeSean Jackson 4-60,1
PK Nick Folk 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: This is an important week because it may not get any better than coming off a bye week and facing the visiting Chiefs. Josh Freeman scored in every game this year but just once had more than one touchdown. He has also varied greatly in the yardage. He's been as good as 299 yards when the Skins showed up and yet twice has failed to top 140 yards in a game. He has also stopped adding rushing attempts for himself. Freeman is little more than a game manager quarterback only without the solid rushing and sound defense that normally accompanies such a marginal passing attack.

Doug Martin has decreased each week since starting out against the Panthers with 95 yards on 24 runs. He scored only once this year and against the Redskins only produced 33 yards on eight runs. LeGarrette Blount was even given the short touchdown. Martin only gets a couple of passes per game for minimal gain. His 247 yards on 71 carries is just 3.5 yards per carry.

Dallas Clark prompted optimism this summer but it was completely unfounded. He has never gained more than 33 yards, has never scored and usually catches only one pass each week. The one touchdown thrown to the position went to Luke Stocker who only has two catches on the year.

Surprisingly, there is fantasy value with the wide receivers. The reality is that almost all the passing and scores end up with just Mike Williams and Vincent Jackson. Williams has two touchdowns on the season but marginal yardage until week four when he turned in 115 yards on four catches against the Redskins (like everyone else). Jackson also has two touchdowns on the year and over 100 yards in two of the last three games. Problem is that his game in Dallas saw him removed from the passing game plan thanks to Brandon Carr and Jackson only had one catch that week.

The Chiefs defense has been average at best and allowed 24 or more points to every opponent until the near trap game with the Ravens last week. Prior to that they had never allowed less than two passing touchdowns per game and their rushing defense has been much less formidable on the road. They only ranks as well as they do from facing the Saints ground game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 30 24 24 31 12 13
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 21 22 6 11 27 31

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, TB @MIA 0000025010 ***
Fitz once again starts in place of the injured Jameis Winston. Miami was whacked in Week 10 and presents an interesting matchup. Quarterbacks have averaged only 226.4 passing yards, which is the 10th fewest, but have thrown a touchdown once every 8.7 completions -- the second-softest clip in football.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Doug Martin, TB @MIA 500000000 ***
Despite a great matchup, Martin isn't a top candidate for fantasy success. Say he has a better game than expected, the floor is awfully low and the ceiling is relatively low, as well. Miami is a much better opponent for gamers in non-PPR scoring.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Charles Sims, TB @MIA 1003200000 ***
In the last five games, Miami has given up just 19 receptions (28th) and 31.8 yards (26th) per game. One of those catches scored.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Evans, TB @MIA 004701000 ***
A one-game break is over, and Evans will return from his suspension for a blindside hit two weeks ago. The Buccaneers remain without Jameis Winston (shoulder). Miami should be a reasonable opponent for exploitation purposes. While the reception volume is low against this defense, wideouts have found the end zone at the highest clip in football when facing Miami.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeSean Jackson, TB @MIA 004500000 ***
Mike Evans returns this week and pushes D-Jax back into sitting shotgun. The Dolphins have surrendered wide receiver touchdowns at the highest rate of any team, which is interesting since this is the fifth-best defense at limiting catches. Sounds exactly like a matchup for Jackson to exploit, so there is at least some upside to this conservative projection.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Adam Humphries, TB @MIA 003300000 ***
Humphries will continue to work out of the slot and have a minor role in the offense. Playing him is asking for trouble. Miami has given up only 9.6 receptions per contest to wideouts, although one in 6.9 have scored.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Cameron Brate, TB @MIA 004500000 *
Tight ends have posted healthy numbers when facing Miami. The position has averaged 5.6 snares for 57.8 yards and a score every 9.3 receptions -- all top-12 figures.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Patrick Murray, TB @MIA 3311 ***
A 3.8 XPA-per-game average is tops in football. Allowing just six of the eight field goals, spread over five games, is far from encouraging, though.

WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

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