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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

Prediction: MIN 20, WAS 23 (Line: WAS by 2.5)

Players Updated: Percy Harvin, Jerome Simpson, Adrian Peterson

Players to Watch: Fred Davis

The 4-1 Vikings are on a three game winning streak that started with their surprise trap win over the 49ers but are only 1-1 on the road and lost in Indianapolis. The 2-3 Redskins are 0-2 at home and looking to crawl out of the NFC cellar. The Vikings have been on a nice run of wins but the home town Redskins have to pull together here or start to write off the season.

The Vikes won 33-26 at Washington last year.

Minnesota Vikings
Homefield: Metrodome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 JAC 26-23 ot 10 DET -----
2 @IND 20-23 11 BYE -----
3 SF 24-13 12 @CHI -----
4 @DET 20-13 13 @GB -----
5 TEN 30-7 14 CHI -----
6 @WAS ----- 15 @STL -----
7 ARI ----- 16 @HOU -----
8 TB ----- 17 GB -----
9 @SEA ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIN @ WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Sam Bradford 220,1
WR Michael Floyd 2-30
TE Kyle Rudolph 6-60,1
PK Kai Forbath 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Vikings have their own brand of "Triplets" between Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin and Christian Ponder but it may be a bit early to consider the quarterback as a major difference maker quite yet. He has scored twice in three of his games but was blanked in the other two. His string of no interceptions ended against the Titans of all teams and he threw two once he saw how easy it was. Ponder gets a crack at a big game this week thanks to facing the Skins secondary but will likely be back to just one wideout in Harvin because Jerome Simpson may not play.

Percy Harvin has helped carry this team with productive games in every week other than the last road game and he finally scored when the Titans visited last week. He's adding a couple of runs per week and usually coming up with eight or nine catches in most games. Going against the worst secondary in the league should only make that even better.

Jerome Simpson is having problems with his back and never made a catch against the Titans. He is being checked out this week and may not suit up. Until they figure out what is causing the weakness and numbness in his lower leg, he's not going to be productive even if he plays. Problem here is that there are no other wideouts of any note. Devin Aromashodu will step up but that meant nothing before Simpson could play. Michael Jenkins also figures in but only for a couple of catches if that. Harvin has been a trooper to be sure with 38 catches on the year already but he cannot do it all.

Kyle Rudolph adds the occasional touchdown catch here but still has not produced more than 36 yards in a game since the season opener.

Adrian Peterson is a medical marvel to be sure. And he is gaining 4.4 yards per carry but has only one 100 yard rushing game and has not scored since week one. Peterson has been solid with around 80 rush yards per week and does supplement his production with a couple of catches as well. If he would find the end zone any time soon would make a big difference. He is certainly good with yardage but so far never great and scoreless for the last four games.

The Skins have never allowed fewer than 300 passing yards per opponent and that benefits the wideouts and tight ends with equal blessings. The run has been mostly stuffed by the Skins who have allowed just three rushing scores and yet never more than 83 rushing yards to any runner. As always with the Skins, this will be all about throwing the ball and taking advantage of the weak secondary.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIN 22 20 18 17 4 10
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 30 9 32 31 21 2

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Case Keenum, MIN LAR 0000023011 ***
Keenum may have put a stranglehold on the starting job in Week 10. The visiting Rams have been a formidable opponent for quarterbacks. The position has averaged 217.5 yards (25th) and 15.4 fantasy points (29th) on a weekly basis, giving up only one TD per game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN LAR 5014300000 ***
If McKinnon indeed lives up to his projected touchdown, it will be only the second time in the past five weeks. The general theme of his matchup is negative. LA ranks 27th in rushing TDs, 20th in total TDs, 18th in rushing yards, 19th in receiving yards, 21st in standard fantasy points and 22nd in PPR points.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Latavius Murray, MIN LAR 6001100000 ***
Murray will have to defy the odds against a solidly negative matchup. Just one time in the past 81 attempts has a running back made it into the end zone. His only justifiable utility is as a flex in deep leagues.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarius Wright, MIN LAR 002201000 ***
Without scoring a TD, Wright is wrong for fantasy purposes. Taking that gamble is unnecessary, especially vs. such a strong defense of the position in the Rams.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Adam Thielen, MIN LAR 006600000 ***
The Rams have been strong against wideouts all season. In the past five weeks, only two of 42 completions have found the end zone by receivers, which is the sixth-lowest rate in football. Thielen faces a defense that has given up just 10.5 catches for 132 yards, on average, to an entire team's worth of wideouts.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Stefon Diggs, MIN LAR 003500000 ***
Only one catch per every 21 against the Rams has found the end zone. This is the sixth-lowest frequency, and LA ranks as the sixth-hardest defense to exploit in fantasy. Wideouts have averaged 10.5 receptions (22nd) and 132 yards per contest (21st).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Kyle Rudolph, MIN LAR 006300000 ***
LA has yielded very little to the position. Only one of the 14 catches has scored in the last four games, and the position has managed just 45.3 yards an outing. Rudolph is a fringe play in this one.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Kai Forbath, MIN LAR 2222 ***
Despite allowing a reasonable seven field goal kicks, only two have made it, which depresses this matchup's rating. The position has kicked only five XPAs, and the 2.8 fantasy points per game allowed is the fewest since Week 5.

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NO 40-32 10 BYE -----
2 @STL 28-31 11 PHI -----
3 CIN 31-38 12 @DAL -----
4 @TB 24-22 13 NYG -----
5 ATL 17-24 14 BAL -----
6 MIN ----- 15 @CLE -----
7 @NYG ----- 16 @PHI -----
8 @PIT ----- 17 DAL -----
9 CAR ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
TE Vernon Davis 5-60

Pregame Notes: The Skins have tumbled to a 2-0 mark thanks to playing in New Orleans and Tampa Bay still have not won at home. This week is easily their best chance of a win and along with the Panthers in week nine may be the only time they will be favored this year.

Robert Griffin III took a break as the best fantasy quarterback last week when he was knocked out of the Falcons game with a "mild" concussion. All signs point to him playing this week though he still needs to get through a week of practice free and clear before he can play. Griffin had been throwing for scores and also rushing in a touchdown for the previous three matchups. Kirk Cousins came in and gave it a valiant effort last week but it should be back to Bob this time.

Alfred Morris is still a fantasy gold mine considering that he has four touchdowns on the season and has never rushed for fewer than 78 yards in any game, He is on a two game streak with over 100 yards. His only failing is that they almost never throw to him. Then again, he is averaging 4.9 yards per carry and just under 100 yards per game.

Fred Davis has assumed a consistent role by now with his last three games producing never less than four catches and averaging just over 70 yards per game. With the wide receivers less than stellar, Davis has a place in this passing game that should only grow bigger. The wideouts have yet to distinguish themselves from each other and that even includes Pierre Garcon. The Redskins have five different wide receivers who all have between 114 and 184 yards after five games. That's a whole lot of mediocrity.

The Vikings defense has been very good - far exceeding expectations. But this is their third road game and they lost to the Colts and then clipped divisional rivals of the Lions. This is a big test so long as Griffin is able to play healthy and in his full capacity. The Vikings rushing defense has been top notch so far but they have never had to chase a quarterback.

The Redskins have to rise up this week because this is almost a must-win game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 3 17 15 20 16 2
Preventing Fantasy Points MIN 14 3 15 29 11 4

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Kirk Cousins, WAS @NO 10100026011 ***
No team has granted fewer yards per game than New Orleans' 166.6. The defense has held quarterbacks to five TD passes in as many games, or one every 16.4 completions. Six passes have been picked on 165 attempts, and one of the 16 rushes went into the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Thompson, WAS @NO 3006501000 ***
Thompson has quieted in the last two weeks. A sign of things to come? Maybe. This week, the Saints provide a low-end matchup -- the fifth-hardest in PPR, in fact. Since Week 5, none of the 26 receptions found the end zone, which is discouraging.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Samaje Perine, WAS @NO 300000000 ***
Perine has not shown a great deal of competence in his limited NFL action. This is the seventh-worst matchup in fantasy for non-PPR backs. Two of the past 96 carries went into the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jamison Crowder, WAS @NO 004500000 ***
Crowder has flashed a little in the last few weeks. The Saints, though, have done everything in their power to keep wideouts down. A touchdown has been scored once every 20 snags, which has amounted to only a pair of WR touchdowns in the last five games. This also is a terrible matchup for receptions (3rd worst) and yardage (4th).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Josh Doctson, WAS @NO 003400000 ***
The matchup is anything but ideal. New Orleans has given up only eight catches a game to wideouts in the last five contests. Since Week 5, the position has caught only two TDs. The Saints are fantasy's third-strongest defense in either scoring system.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Vernon Davis, WAS @NO 006700000 ***
The Saints have given up the third-fewest catches for the second-fewest yards on a weekly clip, and yet they have managed to permit a TD every 5.3 receptions (2nd). Davis will have a bigger role if Jordan Reed once again is out of action.

Update: Davis will play a larger role with Reed ruled out.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Rose, WAS @NO 2211 ***
Only six of the 10 field goal attempts against the Saints have been true, and all nine kicks were accurate. The volume is too low to consider this anything better than a midrange matchup in the most optimistic sense.

WEEK 6
2012
PIT at TEN (THU) *DET at PHI *MIN at WAS *STL at MIA
BUF at ARI *GB at HOU *NE at SEA *DEN at SD (MON)
*CIN at CLE *IND at NYJ *NYG at SF Bye:
*Updated DAL at BAL *KC at TB OAK at ATL CAR, CHI, JAC, NO

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