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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

Prediction: GB 27, NYG 23 (Line: NYG by 2.5)

Players to Watch: Eli Manning

The 6-4 Giants lead the NFC East but are on a two game losing streak and the offense struggled before they went on their bye. The 7-3 Packers are 3-2 on the road but are on a five game winning streak. The Packers won 38-35 when they played in New York during week 13 last year. The Packers are bound to lose soon and the Giants are not as bad as they seemed the last few games. This game comes down to which Eli Manning shows up.

Green Bay Packers
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SF 22-30 10 BYE -----
2 CHI 23-10 11 @DET 24-20
3 @SEA 12-14 12 @NYG -----
4 NO 28-27 13 MIN -----
5 @IND 27-30 14 DET -----
6 @HOU 42-24 15 @CHI -----
7 @STL 30-20 16 TEN -----
8 JAC 24-15 17 @MIN -----
9 ARI 31-17 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
GB @ NYG Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 10 290,3
WR Randall Cobb 6-80,1
WR Jordy Nelson 4-70,1
TE Martellus Bennett 3-30
TE Lance Kendricks 2-20
PK Mason Crosby 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Packers are on a nice run this week may be their toughest remaining game depending on who is still hurt in Chicago in week 15. The Packers defense held their last four opponents to 20 points or less and the offense has been back to their productive ways. As of last week they drew even with the Bears in the standings and four remaining divisional games can lock it up, particularly if the Bears continue to struggle at quarterback.

Aaron Rodgers is still plenty prolific with 27 passing scores on the year but his yardage has waned in recent weeks. They've still won their games and he did throw at least two scores in each but Rodgers throwing for 186, 218 and 236 yards in three consecutive games is low for anyone and in particular for him. He faces a secondary this week that has allowed two or more scores to every visiting quarterback.

The rushing effort here is the worst in the NFL with only two touchdowns scored by a running back all year - Cedric Benson and John Kuhn. No runner has gained more than 65 yards since Benson left and while James Starks was given 25 carries last week, he only gained 74 yards and HC Mike McCarthy said he was going to go back to a committee. In fairness, nothing is going to change and the only help in sight potentially is if Benson can return before the season ends. Then the Packers can rise up to mediocre in their rushing offense.

In week 13 last year, the Packers visited the Giants and Rodgers passed for 369 yards and four touchdowns. Both Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings gained 94 yards in that game and Jermichael Finley scored on his six receptions for 87 yards. Donald Driver scored twice as a true surprise and the rushing effort was nearly nonexistent in that game of course.

The Giants seemed to be running down in recent weeks and even their defense was letting up. All the same fantasy plays are good this week since the Giants weakness - the pass - is the Packers strength.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 3 32 1 14 29 12
Preventing Fantasy Points NYG 27 7 26 26 16 7

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Brett Hundley, GB NO 20000022022 *
Hundley isn't a fantasy-worthy option at this time. The matchup isn't ideal, so consider him a fringe option down the line if he shows some competence in Week 7. The Saints has picked off seven balls to only six TDs allowed.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ty Montgomery, GB NO 3003201000 *
Pass-catching backs have done a fine job at exploiting the Saints. In the past four games, the position has averaged 7.8 receptions (2nd most) and 76.5 yards (2nd most). Only one of the 31 total catches in that window has found the end zone, however. One can assume Green Bay will rely more on the running backs without Aaron Rodgers.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Aaron Jones, GB NO 4003300000 *
More powerful backs haven't fared so well against the Saints, a defense that has permitted 74.3 rushing yards and one ground score in the last 75 carries.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordy Nelson, GB NO 006701000 ***
When in doubt, Nelson gets the benefit of being the top dog in this passing game. Brett Hundley could prefer another target, although sitting Nelson to find out is not advised. Complicating this is the matchup. New Orleans has allowed WRs to score three times in the last 50 receptions faced, which ranks 22nd.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Davante Adams, GB NO 006600000 **
Adams caught a TD from Brett Hundley last week, but it's frankly a guessing game as to which receiver will get the majority of looks at this stage. The Saints have been awesome at corralling receivers, and Adams' value comes mostly from his ability to find the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Randall Cobb, GB NO 003200000 ***
Cobb could see some checkdown work with Brett Hundley starting. Banking on anything is difficult at this stage of the Hundley era, and New Orleans will make it all that much harder. This secondary is rock solid.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Martellus Bennett, GB NO 002200000 ***
Brett Hundley could rely on Bennett more than usual. New Orleans has granted tight ends only 3.3 catches per contest, which is the third-lowest per-game average. In total, this is a decent matchup for scoring TDs but not much else.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mason Crosby, GB NO 3322 *
In the past four weeks, kickers have been reasonable productive against the Saints. In the three games when the position scored, kickers averaged nine points per game. In Week 4, Miami was shut out.

New York Giants
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL 17-24 10 @CIN 13-31
2 TB 41-34 11 BYE -----
3 @CAR 36-7 12 GB -----
4 @PHI 17-19 13 @WAS -----
5 CLE 41-27 14 NO -----
6 @SF 26-3 15 @ATL -----
7 WAS 27-23 16 @BAL -----
8 @DAL 29-24 17 PHI -----
9 PIT 20-24 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYG vs GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Eli Manning 260,1
RB Shane Vereen 30 3-20
WR Brandon Marshall 8-110,1

Pregame Notes: Perhaps it was just a lack of a bye week and the Giants were getting tired. Not only did they drop their last two games, but they barely beat the visiting Redskins in week seven and had to thank Dez Bryant for having long fingers in week eight. This week needs to answer if the Giants can bounce back from the level of play that fell since week six.

Eli Manning is certainly culprit in the downturn with no touchdowns in the last three games and only one each in the two previous that those. That's not only two scores over the last five games but he topped 215 pass yards only once. Manning threw at least one interception every week. He is getting sacked each week as well. Speculation was that his arm was "tired" and he needed the rest to get the zip back on the ball. This week should answer that since the Packers are sure to encourage plenty of passing.

Manning threw for 347 yards and three scores when these teams met in the regular season in 2011 and he passed for 330 yards and three touchdowns in the playoff meeting. This week should make it very apparent if Manning is back to form or still struggling.

Ahmad Bradshaw is expected to play this week but suffered a neck injury in the Cincinnati game. Bradshaw has been phased out as a receiver in recent weeks and he's even fumbled three times this year. His yardage remains marginal thanks in part to Andre Brown who has not only rushed better on his six or so carries per week, but he scored in each of the last four games. Brown currently stands at seven touchdowns on the season though his yardage remains below 25 yards in almost every game. He just takes away the scores from Bradshaw who has lost almost all fantasy value.

Hakeem Nicks is healthy now but hasn't scored since his big game in week two. He's remained below 50 yards in all but one game since and should see an uptick from here on out if Manning indeed is healthy and is rested. Victor Cruz was on a hot streak all year until after week seven when Manning's passing woes finally included him. Cruz scored seven times in the first seven weeks with three games over 100 yards. The last three games only averaged 39 yards and not included any scores.

This game is critical since the Giants lost the last two games and the offense seemingly has started to come apart. By the end it should be very apparent if the Giants buck their recent trend or if a repeat trip to the Superbowl has really no chance.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYG 22 12 8 22 1 5
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 15 10 23 8 17 6

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Eli Manning, NYG SEA 0000015012 ***
Weaponless, shielded by a feeble offensive line, Manning isn't worth starting in an good matchup and certainly not against a well-rested Seattle defense.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Wayne Gallman, NYG SEA 5004300000 ***
This defense is especially unkind to PPR backs. Gallman will do more than just catch the ball, but he's going to play second-fiddle to Orleans Darkwa and have a daunting matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Orleans Darkwa, NYG SEA 5001100000 ***
A week after he overcame a horrible matchup, Darkwa finds himself against a Seattle defense that is fresh off a bye. The 'Hawks have allowed 109 rushing yards, on average, which is the ninth most in football. Just two of the last 82 carries have found the end zone. Darkwa will have an uphill trek vs. fantasy's sixth-hardest opponent.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG SEA 004300000 ***
Update: Shepard, questionable after being limited all week, may give it a go, albeit with a terrible matchup ahead of him. The Giants' second-year receiver is a fringe play and could safely be benched in most situations.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Roger Lewis, NYG SEA 003200000 ***
Lewis may be one of the top remaining bodies left among the Giants receiving corps, yet he has no fantasy worth in Week 7. Seattle should have no problem shutting down the inexperienced wideout.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Evan Engram, NYG SEA 005300000 ***
Seattle allows quarterbacks to work over the middle with tight ends, giving up 60.5 yards on five receptions per meeting. One of the 20 catches in the past four games has scored.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Aldrick Rosas, NYG SEA 1111 ***
This is a top-10 opponent for Rosas. Seattle has granted only five extra points against twice as many field goal tries (nine made).

WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

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