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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

Prediction: GB 27, NYG 23 (Line: NYG by 2.5)

Players to Watch: Eli Manning

The 6-4 Giants lead the NFC East but are on a two game losing streak and the offense struggled before they went on their bye. The 7-3 Packers are 3-2 on the road but are on a five game winning streak. The Packers won 38-35 when they played in New York during week 13 last year. The Packers are bound to lose soon and the Giants are not as bad as they seemed the last few games. This game comes down to which Eli Manning shows up.

Green Bay Packers
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SF 22-30 10 BYE -----
2 CHI 23-10 11 @DET 24-20
3 @SEA 12-14 12 @NYG -----
4 NO 28-27 13 MIN -----
5 @IND 27-30 14 DET -----
6 @HOU 42-24 15 @CHI -----
7 @STL 30-20 16 TEN -----
8 JAC 24-15 17 @MIN -----
9 ARI 31-17 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
GB @ NYG Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 10 290,3
WR Randall Cobb 6-80,1
TE Jimmy Graham 6-60,1
TE Lance Kendricks 2-20
PK Mason Crosby 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Packers are on a nice run this week may be their toughest remaining game depending on who is still hurt in Chicago in week 15. The Packers defense held their last four opponents to 20 points or less and the offense has been back to their productive ways. As of last week they drew even with the Bears in the standings and four remaining divisional games can lock it up, particularly if the Bears continue to struggle at quarterback.

Aaron Rodgers is still plenty prolific with 27 passing scores on the year but his yardage has waned in recent weeks. They've still won their games and he did throw at least two scores in each but Rodgers throwing for 186, 218 and 236 yards in three consecutive games is low for anyone and in particular for him. He faces a secondary this week that has allowed two or more scores to every visiting quarterback.

The rushing effort here is the worst in the NFL with only two touchdowns scored by a running back all year - Cedric Benson and John Kuhn. No runner has gained more than 65 yards since Benson left and while James Starks was given 25 carries last week, he only gained 74 yards and HC Mike McCarthy said he was going to go back to a committee. In fairness, nothing is going to change and the only help in sight potentially is if Benson can return before the season ends. Then the Packers can rise up to mediocre in their rushing offense.

In week 13 last year, the Packers visited the Giants and Rodgers passed for 369 yards and four touchdowns. Both Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings gained 94 yards in that game and Jermichael Finley scored on his six receptions for 87 yards. Donald Driver scored twice as a true surprise and the rushing effort was nearly nonexistent in that game of course.

The Giants seemed to be running down in recent weeks and even their defense was letting up. All the same fantasy plays are good this week since the Giants weakness - the pass - is the Packers strength.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 3 32 1 14 29 12
Preventing Fantasy Points NYG 27 7 26 26 16 7

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB DeShone Kizer, GB MIN 30100019002 ***
Chicago shouldn't have too much trouble putting the hurt on Kizer. For every flash of potential and brilliance, the rookie has displayed a million more hair-pulling whiffs at trying to make a big play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Brett Hundley, GB MIN 30000019002 ***
Hundley replaces Aaron Rodgers in Week 16 and faces a Vikings defense that picked him off three times in Week 6. You know what to do....
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jamaal Williams, GB MIN 5014300000 ***
Last week's game flow didn't much favor Williams seeing more than the 10 touches he was allotted. In Week 16, Brett Hundley will start, so Green Bay is bound to rely more on Williams, but the matchup stinks in all but the TD department. One in 18 carries has scored, which is fifth in the last five weeks. Being the forecast is for single digits at Lambeau, look for plenty of chances for the rookie.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Randall Cobb, GB MIN 005600000 ***
Davante Adams (concussion) could sit, which improves Cobb's chances. Unfortunately, Brett Hundley returns to the lineup, so any gains are likely washed away. Minnesota offers one of the harshest matchups of the week.

Update: Adams has been ruled out.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Geronimo Allison, GB MIN 003400000 ***
Update: No Davante Adams means Allison will see more chances. There is little reason to consider him in any fantasy situation.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jimmy Graham, GB MIN 004201000 ***
Who are you, and what have you done with Jimmy Graham?!? One catch, negative-one yard in the last two games COMBINED?!? Provided your team somehow managed to escape with a W, the Cowboys are a mid-tier opponent, having given up 4.8 receptions (12th), 46.6 yards (17th) and a TD every 12 grabs (18th).
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mason Crosby, GB MIN 2211 ***
All eight of the PATs have been accurate, whereas seven of the eight field goal chances were knocked through the pipes. Crosby faces the eighth-worst matchup of the week.

New York Giants
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL 17-24 10 @CIN 13-31
2 TB 41-34 11 BYE -----
3 @CAR 36-7 12 GB -----
4 @PHI 17-19 13 @WAS -----
5 CLE 41-27 14 NO -----
6 @SF 26-3 15 @ATL -----
7 WAS 27-23 16 @BAL -----
8 @DAL 29-24 17 PHI -----
9 PIT 20-24 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYG vs GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Eli Manning 260,1
RB Jonathan Stewart 20 2-10

Pregame Notes: Perhaps it was just a lack of a bye week and the Giants were getting tired. Not only did they drop their last two games, but they barely beat the visiting Redskins in week seven and had to thank Dez Bryant for having long fingers in week eight. This week needs to answer if the Giants can bounce back from the level of play that fell since week six.

Eli Manning is certainly culprit in the downturn with no touchdowns in the last three games and only one each in the two previous that those. That's not only two scores over the last five games but he topped 215 pass yards only once. Manning threw at least one interception every week. He is getting sacked each week as well. Speculation was that his arm was "tired" and he needed the rest to get the zip back on the ball. This week should answer that since the Packers are sure to encourage plenty of passing.

Manning threw for 347 yards and three scores when these teams met in the regular season in 2011 and he passed for 330 yards and three touchdowns in the playoff meeting. This week should make it very apparent if Manning is back to form or still struggling.

Ahmad Bradshaw is expected to play this week but suffered a neck injury in the Cincinnati game. Bradshaw has been phased out as a receiver in recent weeks and he's even fumbled three times this year. His yardage remains marginal thanks in part to Andre Brown who has not only rushed better on his six or so carries per week, but he scored in each of the last four games. Brown currently stands at seven touchdowns on the season though his yardage remains below 25 yards in almost every game. He just takes away the scores from Bradshaw who has lost almost all fantasy value.

Hakeem Nicks is healthy now but hasn't scored since his big game in week two. He's remained below 50 yards in all but one game since and should see an uptick from here on out if Manning indeed is healthy and is rested. Victor Cruz was on a hot streak all year until after week seven when Manning's passing woes finally included him. Cruz scored seven times in the first seven weeks with three games over 100 yards. The last three games only averaged 39 yards and not included any scores.

This game is critical since the Giants lost the last two games and the offense seemingly has started to come apart. By the end it should be very apparent if the Giants buck their recent trend or if a repeat trip to the Superbowl has really no chance.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYG 22 12 8 22 1 5
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 15 10 23 8 17 6

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Eli Manning, NYG @ARI 0000020011 ***
Sans two rushing TDs by quarterbacks, this is the fifth-worst matchup of the week. Quarterbacks have averaged just 193 yards (30th) since Week 10. Manning is coming off of a monster performance that should be viewed as an aberration. One of every 16 passes faced by the Cardinals has gone for a TD, which ranks 22nd.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jonathan Stewart, NYG @ARI 5011100000 ***
Stewart's Week 8 meeting with the Bucs wasn't pretty, but he salvaged fantasy worth with a touchdown on his 34-yard day. This week, Tampa Bay could be missing several cogs on defense, and this is the softest matchup for finding the end zone on the ground in the past five weeks of data.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Wayne Gallman, NYG @ARI 4006400000 ***
Gallman has been explosive in his limited work the last two games, logging 4.9 yards per carry on his 20 totes. He also has added 80 receiving yards on 13 grabs. The rook hasn't scored in limited action since Week 4. Arizona boasts the third-best defense of limiting rushing yardage and 10th-strongest at stopping overall yardage gains. The matchup is merely average for everything else.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Cody Latimer, NYG @ARI 003400000 ***
It appears Paxton Lynch (ankle) will get the start. It really doesn't matter; gamers need to stay away from Latimer with a title on the line.

Update: It looks like Brock Osweiler will start instead of Lynch.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG @ARI 004400000 ***
Shepard was nothing short of impressive last weekend and now faces the fourth-best defense of his position. The Cardinals have smothered receivers across the board in the past five weeks, giving up only 108.2 yards (31st) on 10 catches (26th) per game. WRs have scored three times over those five contests.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Roger Lewis, NYG @ARI 003300000 ***
Arizona has dominated receivers and shouldn't have any trouble holding the great Roger Lewis in check.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Evan Engram, NYG @ARI 005601000 ***
Just one of the last 17 catches by tight ends has scored on Arizona, and this matchup is among the five worst in both scoring formats. Engram's projection is optimistic, but he has the track record and athleticism to make something happen.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Aldrick Rosas, NYG @ARI 2211 ***
Arizona is a neutral matchup against the position. One field goal and another extra point attempt missed, while only 40.9 percent of all kicks against the Cards were worth three points.

WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

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