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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

Prediction: NE 27, NYJ 17 (Line: NE by 6)

Players to Watch: Aaron Hernandez

This is the late game on Thanksgiving. The 7-3 Patriots head to New York where the 4-6 Jets are 2-3 and have already lost to the Patriots 26-29 just four weeks ago. Apparently that close call inspired the Patriots since they have scored at least 37 points in each of the last three games and are currently the #1 scoring team in the NFL by over 50 points.

New England Patriots
Homefield: Gillette Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @TEN 34-13 10 BUF 37-31
2 ARI 18-20 11 IND 59-24
3 @BAL 30-31 12 @NYJ -----
4 @BUF 52-28 13 @MIA -----
5 DEN 31-21 14 HOU -----
6 @SEA 23-24 15 SF -----
7 NYJ 29-26 16 @JAC -----
8 @STL 45-7 17 MIA -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NE @ NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Tom Brady 250,2
WR Danny Amendola
WR Julian Edelman 3-30
TE Dwayne Allen 4-40
PK Stephen Gostkowski 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Pats are back to their "roll up the points" mode but that may take a step back now that Rob Gronkowski is out for at least four weeks and potentially longer. The talented tight end has been the central man in the passing scheme for two seasons now and his limitation in the Superbowl may have been part of the four point loss. That and the whole "Curse of Eli" thing.

Fortunately, Aaron Hernandez is expected to return from his ankle injury that has basically robbed him of his season since week two. He returned in week six and seven but then missed the last four games. Some reports have him still limited and since this is the Patriot way, we cannot really know until we know. He's been limited in practice for a few weeks. The same was true in week six when he came back and scored once on his six catches for 30 yards.

Vishanthe Shiancoe should see an increase in snaps but not necessarily receptions. Neither he nor Michael Hoomanawanui are a true replacement and whatever Hernandez does not inherit will go to Julian Edelman, Wes Welker or even running backs.

Tom Brady passed for 259 yards and two scores when the Jets visited a month ago. The Jets played a very good game defensively that week and held the Pats to no rushing scores. Stevan Ridley gained 65 yards on 17 carries with no receptions while Shane Vereen went for 49 yards on eight runs. Danny Woodhead has six runs and four receptions for a total of 46 yards in that game but was never given a touch last week in the blow out win.

This is a prime time game on national TV. Both teams know each other very well but the absence of Gronk could make a difference. But this is the exact sort of game that Brady and company loves to really put on a show. This is a pivotal week too since the Pats need to show that losing Gronk is not going to make a big difference.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NE 5 3 11 1 2 3
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 7 21 4 24 19 17

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Tom Brady, NE @NYJ 0000031020 ***
In two games last year vs. New York, Tom Terrific went for 286-2-0 and 214-3-0 to average 22 fantasy points. This season's version of the Jets has allowed a TD pass every 11.6 completions (9th) but otherwise has quieted fantasy quarterback play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB James White, NE @NYJ 1006500000 ***
New York grants receiving types more space. The position has mustered 161.2 offensive yards (58.6 receiving) and six receptions per game. One of every 15 catches has gone the distance. In 2016's 16th week, White caught a 3-32-1 line vs. the Jets.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Mike Gillislee, NE @NYJ 500000000 ***
The Jets are fantasy's fifth-easiest opponent for RBs in both scoring formats. Most of the damage comes via high yardage yields, though, and only three of 129 carries have scored in five contests.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Chris Hogan, NE @NYJ 006801000 ***
Hogan has been electric after a muted Week 1 and is a must-play in any format. The Jets have held down receivers for catches (22nd-most) and yards (27th) but have allowed a TD every game this year to the position. In a reserve role last year, his best game against NYJ was a 4-70-0 line.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Danny Amendola, NE @NYJ 006600000 ***
While this is a generally neutral matchup with the Jets, Amendola's value comes from his receiving volume. This group has given up only 10.8 catches per contest to the position, which rates in the bottom third of the league.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brandin Cooks, NE @NYJ 004500000 ***
The big-play weapon finds himself against a Jets defense that has given up the 10th-most points per play to receivers and a matching 10th-highest TD frequency.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Rob Gronkowski, NE @NYJ 005801000 ***
Gronk missed last Thursday but is on track to return in Week 6. The Jets have given up only four catches per game to tight ends, with one of every 10 going the distance. Gronk was held catchless on his two targets in Week 12 at New York in 2016.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Stephen Gostkowski, NE @NYJ 3333 ***
Fantasy kickers haven't fared well vs. the Jets because of how easy it has been to score TDs, which diminishes the count of field goals against.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA 7-28
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL 27-13
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE -----
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE 26-29 16 SD -----
8 MIA 9-30 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Matt Forte 70 5-30,1
RB Bilal Powell 30,1 3-20
WR Jeremy Kerley 4-70,1
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Josh McCown, NYJ NE 0000025021 ***
QBs have averaged a messload of fantasy points against the Pats this year. No one has given up more fantasy points (29.5) and yards (335) per outing. QBs have thrown a TD every 10.4 completions, which is the fifth-most-efficient clip.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Elijah McGuire, NYJ NE 5002100000 ***
If Bilal Powell cannot play or is limited, McGuire would get the lion's share of the touches. He has proven to be explosive but hasn't been tested heavily over four quarters in the NFL. New England is the best matchup for a running back to cut his teeth.

Update: Powell didn't practice all week but is listed as questionable. He isn't likely to play. Matt Forte, though, returns to action.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Matt Forte, NYJ NE 3001100000 **
Forte's status remains unsettled at this time. He didn't practice Wednesday but managed to warm up with the team.

Update: Bilal Powell didn't practice all week but is listed as questionable. Forte is expected to make his return to the field after he was removed from the injury report.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jermaine Kearse, NYJ NE 005601000 ***
Kearse is as close to a safe option in this offense as you'll find among its receivers. The Patriots help nudge him closer to playability, as this is the fourth-best matchup in PPR. Kearse has shown a nose for the end zone in 2017, and the Patriots have permitted a WR TD per game in five showings.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robby Anderson, NYJ NE 003400000 ***
Purely a wild flier because of the matchup, Anderson should be reserved for DFS purposes. New England has given up the fourth-most points per game in PPR and fifth-most in standard.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Kerley, NYJ NE 005400000 ***
Kerley could sneak into DFS lineups as a bottom-priced option because of the plus-matchup rating. New England is among the five most easily exploited defenses in either scoring system.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, NYJ NE 005501000 ***
One of every seven catches has gone for a score versus the Pats, and Seferian-Jenkins is developing a larger role int he offense. The position has averaged 66 yards on 5.6 snares facing this defense.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chandler Catanzaro, NYJ NE 2222 ***
This would be a much better matchup than its current neutral status if kickers had not missed four of the 12 field goals attempts afforded to them.

Pregame Notes: Winning big in St. Louis was a surprise last week since the Jets were on a three game losing streak that started against these Patriots and the next two losses were blowouts by 21 points each. If nothing else, it made the Jets look good for one week and quelled the withering fire they take from the NY media after every loss.

Mark Sanchez threw for a season best 328 yards in the last meeting with the Patriots though only one touchdown and he's scored multiple touchdowns in only two games all year. At 11 touchdowns on the year, he's been only marginally effective in any game. The Patriots have shored up their secondary in the interim as well with the addition of CB Aqib Talib who instantly became their #1 cover corner. He also returned an interception for a touchdown in his first game with the Patriots. Sanchez is less likely to see as much success passing.

Shonn Greene still slogs along with around 60 rush yards in most games and aside from his week six freak show against the Colts when he scored three times, he's been the picture of mediocrity this year. Now the Jets are taking a committee approach to the backfield and including Bilal Powell who scored his first two NFL touchdowns last week on his 11 runs for 42 yards in St. Louis. Greene rushed for 64 yards on 18 carries in that game as well. In week seven, Greene ran for 54 yards and a score on 16 runs in New England. A committee is a good thing if it finally dissuades you from giving Greene a fantasy start.

Dustin Keller caught seven passes for 93 yards and a score in New England this year but that was his only touchdown and he's settled down to much lower production. Against the Rams he caught two passes for 16 yards.

Jeremy Kerley was the best receiver in the last meeting when he gained 120 yards on seven receptions. He's failed to turn in more than 60 yards in any game since and has not scored since back in week three. None of the Jets wideouts have any reliability or fantasy value now.

This is a late game and prime time so both teams will bring their "A" games. So far that heavily favors the Patriots.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 30 24 24 24 28 9
Preventing Fantasy Points NE 31 16 27 31 6 1

INSERT THE PLAYER TABLE #2 HERE

WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

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