FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Follow Follow @DMDorey
 

Predictions Summary »  Player Rankings (Projections) »  myHuddle Projections by Team »  Projections Summary by Team »

WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

Prediction: SEA 20, MIA 6 (Line: SEA by 3)

Players to Watch: Marshawn Lynch

The 6-4 Seahawks come off their bye but are only 1-4 on the road. The 4-6 Dolphins are 2-2 at home but have lost their last three games.

Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 16-20 10 NYJ 28-7
2 DAL 27-7 11 BYE -----
3 GB 14-12 12 @MIA -----
4 @STL 13-19 13 @CHI -----
5 @CAR 16-12 14 ARI -----
6 NE 24-23 15 @BUF -----
7 @SF 6-13 16 SF -----
8 @DET 24-28 17 STL -----
9 MIN 30-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA @ MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 20 210,1
TE Jimmy Graham 6-60,1
PK Blair Walsh 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Chances are we have already seen the best of the Seahawks offense since the remaining schedule contains several very tough matchups and maybe even the Bills game is not going to be as promising given last week and what they did to these Dolphins. But the defense is not facing many great offenses and so should remain one of the top units in the league. The season may come down to those final two home games and the Seahawks always play better at home. Much better.

Russell Wilson scored two or three times in each of the last three games but only with minor yardage in each and he's been blanked twice this year - both on the road against the better defenses of the Rams and 49ers. His yardage keeps him from being a fantasy option with seven games of under 200 yards. He's a safe bet to score once or twice in home games but otherwise he better left on your bench.

Shades of 2011. Marshawn Lynch is getting better and better as the season progresses and he is currently on a four game streak of 100+ rushing yards and scored in each of the last three. He's been a lock for 100 total yards in road games and 150+ total yards when at home.

Sidney Rice never gets more than around 60 yards but has scored in four of the last five games but only one of those came on the road. GOlden Tate scored three times in the last two weeks but both of those were home games. He also rarely has more than 50 yards in any game and was even blanked in San Francisco.

The Seahawks live and die by their defense and the rushing of Lynch. Any passing is just to keep the defenses honest and to score in home games. The only safe play on this team is Marshawn Lynch. The problem this week is that the best part of the Miami defense is against the run which is the strength of the Seahawks. And they are weakest against the pass which is also the weakness of the Seahawks.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 27 20 25 27 25 22
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 17 6 25 13 25 22

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Russell Wilson, SEA LAR 30100023021 ***
In Week 5, at LA, Wilson recorded his second-worst game of the year in fantasy (15.5 points0. Over the last five games, the Rams have permitted the ninth-most yards, on average, and a TD in 18.3 completions (18th). None of the 14 carries against have scored. One intangible: Seattle hosts.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Mike Davis, SEA LAR 7004300000 ***
Davis (ribs) has 31 carries over his last two games, plus five receptions, and he is running well enough for fantasy consideration. The Rams provide the sixth-best matchup for rushing yards. One of every 29.5 carries has found the end zone since Week 9, with is the 13th-easiest rate to exploit. Davis is a high-risk gamble.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Doug Baldwin, SEA LAR 005601000 ***
Baldwin was a non-factor in the Week 5 meeting. He hauled in four of eight targets for 37 yards. The Rams have yielded big possession numbers to the position lately. Since Week 9, wideouts have averaged 14.4 receptions (5th), 171.8 yards (6th) but a TD every 18 catches (25th).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Paul Richardson, SEA LAR 003600000 ***
Los Angeles travels north for the rematch. Richardson was nothing to write home about in that game. The Rams have done well against wideouts when it comes to limiting touchdowns (8th-hardest), but this is a good matchup for finding receptions and yardage totals. Both stats are in the top six since Week 9.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA LAR 002300000 ***
Lockett has virtually no impact in the first game. The Rams have given up quality figures for yardage (6th) and receptions (5th) that work in his favor, but this is also the eighth-best defense at keeping receivers from scoring TDs since Week 9.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jimmy Graham, SEA LAR 004301000 ***
Provided you survived last week's miserable performance, Graham returns with a top-10 opponent -- one he exploited for north of 15 fantasy points in the earlier meeting this year. Expect a decent rebound showing from the veteran.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Blair Walsh, SEA LAR 2222 ***
Only 7 of the 11 field goals faced since Week 9 have made their mark against the Rams. Eleven of the 12 PATs went through the posts.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 10-30 10 TEN 3-37
2 OAK 35-13 11 @BUF 14-19
3 NYJ 20-23 12 SEA -----
4 @ARI 21-24 13 NE -----
5 @CIN 17-13 14 @SF -----
6 STL 17-14 15 JAC -----
7 BYE ----- 16 BUF -----
8 @NYJ 30-9 17 @NE -----
9 @IND 20-23 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA vs SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Jay Cutler 240,2
QB Ryan Tannehill 200

Pregame Notes: The loss in Buffalo was a double-whammy. First it dropped the Dolphins to 4-6 and made even the most optimistic fan realize "probably not going to happen this year.. again...". Secondly and for our purposes even worse - they faced the weak Bills defense and played like they were in Chicago. Ryan Tannehill only passed for 141 yards and one score with two interceptions. All combined, the running backs gained 53 yards on 23 carries. Against the Bills. It is alarming for all players on this team.

Tannehill has never been relevant to fantasy since he's thrown just six touchdowns this year and 11 interceptions. His 431 yards in Arizona back in week four was really about two to three games worth combined. He's an average quarterback at best with marginal production.

Reggie Bush just gets worse and worse. In Buffalo, he only gained 20 yards on ten carries and the previous week ran four times for 21 yards before getting benched for fumbling. Bush has the look of someone who will not be back next year when his current contract has expired and who isn't pressing like he did earlier in the year. Daniel Thomas is sharing carries and doing more with them but no back here has more than very marginal fantasy value and even less so this week with the Seahawks showing up.

The meager passing has left the wide receivers and tight ends with no real fantasy value beyond Brian Hartline. But even he scored only once this year and too often ends up with fewer than 50 receiving yards. When facing a really weak secondary, Hartline will end up with eight or more catches but he only caught four passes for 49 yards in Buffalo and aside from his one 253 yard game in Arizona has been only a marginal play in reception point leagues.

Now the floundering Dolphins have to face a top five defense against the pass - which they really don't have - and a top ten unit against the run - which they are not doing well anyway. There is no safe fantasy play on the Dolphins this week, not even Hartline.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 32 8 27 31 31 21
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 3 8 3 14 7 13

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jay Cutler, MIA @BUF 0000021012 ***
Slightly aided by the Snow Bowl of Week 14, Buffalo sits as the toughest matchup from the past five weeks of data. This unit was stout before last week, and it ranks in the bottom five against yardage, touchdown efficiency, points per play and yards per completion allowed.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Kenyan Drake, MIA @BUF 10014300000 ***
Drake has beasted of late, and he draws the best matchup of the week. No team has allowed more rushing yards or offensive yards, and this is the third-best place for a touchdown of any offensive kind for running backs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA @BUF 005601000 ***
Miami plays Buffalo twice over the final three games. The Bills have been among the toughest defenses of wideouts over the course of 2017. Since Week 9, this is the worst matchup for yards, and it's a bottom-five team for allowing catches and fantasy points. Just three of the last 50 receptions have scored (24th).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kenny Stills, MIA @BUF 003500000 ***
Stills mustered 35 yards and a score in Week 16 last year at the Bills. Over the last four games, this defense has locked down wideouts. It is the ninth-worst matchup for ease of scoring a TD, and it ranks in the bottom five for catches, yardage and fantasy points.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeVante Parker, MIA @BUF 004400000 ***
Parker, at Buffalo late last year, went for 85 and a TD on his four catches. The Bills have been rock-solid against wideouts in 2017, especially of late. This is the third-worst fantasy matchup in both scoring formats. It's in the bottom nine for receptions, yards and TD efficiency allowed.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Julius Thomas, MIA @BUF 003300000 ***
Thomas faces the No. 8 matchup to exploit for receptions and yardage per game, though the Bills have stiffened near the stripe. Only one of the past 25 catches has scored, which is the fifth-harshest defensive rating.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cody Parkey, MIA @BUF 1122 ***
This is the best matchup for combined kicking chances and third-best for both FGAs and XPAs on a per-game basis. The Bills host this one, and the forecast calls for temps in the mid-30s with mixed precipitation.

WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

a d v e r t i s e m e n t