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David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: ARI 10, NYJ 24 (Line: NYJ by 4.5)

Players Updated: Andre Roberts, Beanie Wells

Players to Watch: Ryan Lindley, Bilal Powell

The 4-7 Cardinals continue their impressive plunge with a seven game losing streak and a 1-4 road mark. The 4-7 Jets have won a few times in the last seven games and are at home. The Jets may be like NFL-lite this year but it's harder to explain why the Cardinals won any games this year than it is how they lost seven in a row..

Arizona Cardinals
Homefield: University of Phoenix Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SEA 20-16 10 BYE -----
2 @NE 20-18 11 @ATL 19-23
3 PHI 27-6 12 STL 17-31
4 MIA 24-21 13 @NYJ -----
5 @STL 3-17 14 @SEA -----
6 BUF 16-19 15 DET -----
7 @MIN 14-21 16 CHI -----
8 SF 3-24 17 @SF -----
9 @GB 17-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
ARI @ NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Carson Palmer 250,2
RB Adrian Peterson 110,1 5-30
WR Larry Fitzgerald 3-40
TE Jermaine Gresham 5-40,1
PK Phil Dawson 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Cardinals continue their losing streak that has an excellent chance of extending into next year. Likely the home stand against the Lions will be their best chance but even that won't likely see them favored. This season started out with much the same players and all the same coaches and schemes. But nothing has worked and problems at quarterback continue to plague any chance of a turnaround.

Ryan Lindley will continue to start until such time that Kevin Kolb makes it back since John Skelton is no longer considered an option. But in a home game against the Rams, Lindley threw for 312 yards and no scores with four interceptions including two that were returned for touchdowns by the defense. Teams are plotting to take away Larry Fitzgerald and then see what happens.

What happens is that Fitzgerald now has four catches for 42 yards from the last two games combined, And the Cardinals lose so there is no reason to expect anything different from future opponents. At least Andre Roberts caught nine passes for 92 yards and even second-year tight end Robert Housler had a career best eight receptions for 82 yards. William Powell plays third downs and ended with six catches for 63 yards. Defenses are just effectively saying you do not get Fitzgerald - what are you going to do?

Beanie Wells returned after missing all the games since week three and even posted two rushing touchdowns and yet only 48 yards on 17 carries and that includes the ten-yard run for one score. He is apparently back to health since he is rarely getting two yards past the line of scrimmage. LaRod Stephens-Howling only took one carry in the game. The only real notable was Powell's six catches from Lindley since he only had seven catches in all previous games combined.

No reason to expect a turn-around this week. The Jets held four of their visitors to either one or no passing scores and most remain well under 200 passing yards there. The rushing defense is weaker but not as weak as the rushing offense of the Cardinals.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points ARI 26 30 16 28 25 13
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 11 27 9 26 20 28

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Carson Palmer, ARI @LAR 0000024011 **
First of all, trips to London can be tricky for fantasy purposes. Palmer faces a decidedly neutral opponent in the Rams. Quarterbacks have averaged pedestrian figures of 240.4 yards and a TD every 13.5 completions.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Adrian Peterson, ARI @LAR 8011100000 **
Peterson gets a chance to reprise his explosive Week 6 debut with fantasy's best matchup in the Rams. It is in London, so beware. Those games are always tricky to project. The Rams have allowed the most offensive yards and fourth-most rushing yards per game, in addition to giving up rushing TDs at the second-highest frequency (one per 22.2 carries).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Andre Ellington, ARI @LAR 1002200000 *
Ellington, dealing with a quad issue, was quiet in Week 6 as Adrian Peterson exploded. The Rams have given up the most fantasy points per game to running backs in PPR, including the eighth-highest average.

Update: Ellington hasn't practiced in full all week and is no better than a flimsy game-time call, despite Bruce Arians suggesting the rusher would play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR John Brown, ARI @LAR 003401000 ***
LA has given up rather low figures to wideouts. This is the 21st-best opponent for logging catches, 14th for generating yardage, but 24th for yardage.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI @LAR 006700000 **
Fitz was good for 11.3 PPR points in Week 4 last year and then 15.3 in the season finale versus the Rams. This year, LA has permitted receivers to score only three times in the last 51 catches, or once per 18 balls.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jaron Brown, ARI @LAR 004400000 ***
On a per-game basis, Brown is a WR3 so far. The Rams give him a fairly stiff matchup. The position has scored three times in the last five games, or once per 18 grabs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jermaine Gresham, ARI @LAR 002200000 ***
The matchup isn't better than average, and Gresham is well below being there in his own right. Avoid him in all formats.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Phil Dawson, ARI @LAR 3322 ***
Kickers have made nine of 12 field goals against the Niners, splitting the uprights on 12 of 13 TD-cappers. This is a neutral matchup.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA 7-28
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL 27-13
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE 19-49
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE 26-29 16 SD -----
8 MIA 9-30 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Matt Forte 60 4-20
RB Bilal Powell 40,1 2-10
WR Jeremy Kerley 4-50,1

Pregame Notes: The Jets one good game against the Rams only lasted one week. On the last game on Thanksgiving, the country tried to stay away while watching the Jets getting spanked by the Patriots. HC Rex Ryan made his obligatory claim of "Mark Sanchez is our starting quarterback and gives us our best chance to win." At 4-7 on the year, their best chance does not translate into "a good chance".

When the only highlight they show after the game was Sanchez running into a lineman's butt, falling down and losing a fumble, you know the game did not go well.

Mark Sanchez threw for 301 yards on the visiting Patriots but only one touchdown with an interception and lost fumble. Since the season opener, Sanchez has only scored nine touchdowns over ten games and only once did he score as many as two touchdowns. Sanchez is no better than the opposing secondary with yardage and throws for one touchdown per game regardless. Tim Tebow is out with fractured ribs but hasn't been a factor in any game anyway.

Ironically, Shonn Greene has been rushing pretty well in recent weeks and yet now has to share the work with Bilal Powell. Greene is only getting 15 to 18 carries per week for around 60-70 yards and has not scored since week seven. Powell gets 10 to 12 runs per game and scored three times in the last two weeks. He also added two receptions per week. That makes both runners marginal fantasy plays and once Powell doesn't score his fantasy worth is almost nil.

Jeremy Kerley is typically the lead receiver with around five catches or more every game. He comes off a seven catch, 86-yard effort against the Patriots and exceeded 70 yards four times this year. But he has not scored since week three and usually ends up under 60 yards per game. Dustin Keller is the only other receiver of any note and comes off his scored touchdown of the year when he collected five receptions for 64 yards last Thursday. This remains one he the least productive passing offenses in the NFL and there are no fantasy players here that can be considered a lock for anything beyond a mediocre showing.

The Cardinals are bringing a decent defense but no offense. That should end up with moderate points by the Jets and a much needed win but not like big points. I like the chance for a defensive score in this game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 30 23 24 20 28 11
Preventing Fantasy Points ARI 5 9 16 3 15 30

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Josh McCown, NYJ @MIA 0000020011 ***
Miami has given up a fair amount of yardage (247.4/game) but little else to quarterbacks. Just six TD passes allowed in five games helps make this a soundly negative matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bilal Powell, NYJ @MIA 3003300000 *
Powell's status is unclear at this time. Check back Friday for an update.

Update: The Jets will have Powell this week against a matchup that lacks appeal. He has flex potential and is likely to share touches, perhaps three ways.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Matt Forte, NYJ @MIA 3002200000 **
This is hardly an ideal matchup, and Forte is no better than a fringe consideration. Miami hasn't allowed much through the air (35.6 yards/game) and is one of the tougher groups on the ground (10th). PPR backs have scored one time in the last 28 catches. He was good for 16.7 PPR points in Week 9 last year vs. the Dolphins but only 3.8 in a limited Week 15 showing.

Update: Bilal Powell is not on the injury report and should have a substantial share of the touches.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Elijah McGuire, NYJ @MIA 200000000 ***
McGuire was barely involved last week and has a strong opponent in Miami. This is the ninth-hardest matchup in standard scoring. The Dolphins have allowed rushing TDs at a higher clip than they'd like, but it's still only good for 11th. RBs have mustered only 112 offensive yards against this defense.

Update: Bilal Powell is not on the injury report and should have a substantial share of the touches.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Kerley, NYJ @MIA 005500000 ***
Kerley has emerged recently in his return to New York. The Dolphins are a tougher matchup than the Pats offered a week ago, and receivers have scored only three times in the last five games against them.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robby Anderson, NYJ @MIA 003400000 ***
A fringe play, Anderson has a tough matchup in all statistical markers but yardage allowed per game (153.4). Only three catches in the last five weeks have found the end zone against the Dolphins.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jermaine Kearse, NYJ @MIA 004400000 ***
On average, it takes wide receivers 19.7 catches to score against Miami, while accounting for just 11.8 grabs as a team per outing. The positive side to this matchup is WRs have hauled in an average of 154.3 yards.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, NYJ @MIA 006401000 ***
Seferian-Jenkins was involved in a controversial touchdown reversal last week that certainly ticked off his fantasy owners. This week, finding the end zone, legitimately or otherwise, could prove difficult. The Dolphins have surrendered the third-most catches per game but only one TD every 17.5 snares (22nd).
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chandler Catanzaro, NYJ @MIA 2211 ***
Miami ranks as the fourth-toughest opponent for kickers to exploit. This mostly is because five of the 12 field goal attempts missed their mark. The chances have been here, even if the accuracy has not.

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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