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David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: ARI 10, NYJ 24 (Line: NYJ by 4.5)

Players Updated: Andre Roberts, Beanie Wells

Players to Watch: Ryan Lindley, Bilal Powell

The 4-7 Cardinals continue their impressive plunge with a seven game losing streak and a 1-4 road mark. The 4-7 Jets have won a few times in the last seven games and are at home. The Jets may be like NFL-lite this year but it's harder to explain why the Cardinals won any games this year than it is how they lost seven in a row..

Arizona Cardinals
Homefield: University of Phoenix Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SEA 20-16 10 BYE -----
2 @NE 20-18 11 @ATL 19-23
3 PHI 27-6 12 STL 17-31
4 MIA 24-21 13 @NYJ -----
5 @STL 3-17 14 @SEA -----
6 BUF 16-19 15 DET -----
7 @MIN 14-21 16 CHI -----
8 SF 3-24 17 @SF -----
9 @GB 17-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
ARI @ NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Carson Palmer 250,2
RB Adrian Peterson 110,1 5-30
WR Larry Fitzgerald 3-40
TE Jermaine Gresham 5-40,1
PK Phil Dawson 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Cardinals continue their losing streak that has an excellent chance of extending into next year. Likely the home stand against the Lions will be their best chance but even that won't likely see them favored. This season started out with much the same players and all the same coaches and schemes. But nothing has worked and problems at quarterback continue to plague any chance of a turnaround.

Ryan Lindley will continue to start until such time that Kevin Kolb makes it back since John Skelton is no longer considered an option. But in a home game against the Rams, Lindley threw for 312 yards and no scores with four interceptions including two that were returned for touchdowns by the defense. Teams are plotting to take away Larry Fitzgerald and then see what happens.

What happens is that Fitzgerald now has four catches for 42 yards from the last two games combined, And the Cardinals lose so there is no reason to expect anything different from future opponents. At least Andre Roberts caught nine passes for 92 yards and even second-year tight end Robert Housler had a career best eight receptions for 82 yards. William Powell plays third downs and ended with six catches for 63 yards. Defenses are just effectively saying you do not get Fitzgerald - what are you going to do?

Beanie Wells returned after missing all the games since week three and even posted two rushing touchdowns and yet only 48 yards on 17 carries and that includes the ten-yard run for one score. He is apparently back to health since he is rarely getting two yards past the line of scrimmage. LaRod Stephens-Howling only took one carry in the game. The only real notable was Powell's six catches from Lindley since he only had seven catches in all previous games combined.

No reason to expect a turn-around this week. The Jets held four of their visitors to either one or no passing scores and most remain well under 200 passing yards there. The rushing defense is weaker but not as weak as the rushing offense of the Cardinals.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points ARI 26 30 16 28 25 13
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 11 27 9 26 20 28

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blaine Gabbert, ARI @WAS 10000019012 ***
Washington has allowed two passing TDs a game since Week 9, or one every 9.3 completions, which is the second-highest frequency. The position has averaged a modest 245.2 aerial yards vs. the 'Skins in this time.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Kerwynn Williams, ARI @WAS 5001100000 ***
Williams should see the majority of touches if Adrian Peterson (neck) once again sits. The Redskins offer the second-best matchup for rushing yardage per game (134.4) and No. 12 for ease of finding the end zone on the ground over the past five weeks. Through the air, though, this is among the worst places to look for RB production. Washington is the second-toughest against catches and yardage.

Update: Peterson is out.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI @WAS 004500000 ***
Washington hasn't allowed many catches per game (22nd) but ranks 8th in touchdown frequency, which bodes well for Fitz. The position has managed 174 yards a game, or the fifth most in football since Week 9.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR J.J. Nelson, ARI @WAS 002300000 ***
Too much is at stake to trust Nelson in a fantasy lineup this week.

Update: With John Brown out, Nelson creeps closer to deep-flier territory.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Ricky Seals-Jones, ARI @WAS 003301000 **
It has been three weeks since he has scored, and the rookie has just two grabs over his past two games. Even if he lives up to this projection, Seals-Jones is not a worthwhile fantasy gamble.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Phil Dawson, ARI @WAS 3311 ***
Since Week 9, 26 total kicks (10 FGs) have split the pipes against Washington. This is the third-best matchup of the week, though most of the volume came by way of one-pointers.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA 7-28
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL 27-13
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE 19-49
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE 26-29 16 SD -----
8 MIA 9-30 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Matt Forte 60 4-20
RB Bilal Powell 40,1 2-10
WR Jeremy Kerley 4-50,1

Pregame Notes: The Jets one good game against the Rams only lasted one week. On the last game on Thanksgiving, the country tried to stay away while watching the Jets getting spanked by the Patriots. HC Rex Ryan made his obligatory claim of "Mark Sanchez is our starting quarterback and gives us our best chance to win." At 4-7 on the year, their best chance does not translate into "a good chance".

When the only highlight they show after the game was Sanchez running into a lineman's butt, falling down and losing a fumble, you know the game did not go well.

Mark Sanchez threw for 301 yards on the visiting Patriots but only one touchdown with an interception and lost fumble. Since the season opener, Sanchez has only scored nine touchdowns over ten games and only once did he score as many as two touchdowns. Sanchez is no better than the opposing secondary with yardage and throws for one touchdown per game regardless. Tim Tebow is out with fractured ribs but hasn't been a factor in any game anyway.

Ironically, Shonn Greene has been rushing pretty well in recent weeks and yet now has to share the work with Bilal Powell. Greene is only getting 15 to 18 carries per week for around 60-70 yards and has not scored since week seven. Powell gets 10 to 12 runs per game and scored three times in the last two weeks. He also added two receptions per week. That makes both runners marginal fantasy plays and once Powell doesn't score his fantasy worth is almost nil.

Jeremy Kerley is typically the lead receiver with around five catches or more every game. He comes off a seven catch, 86-yard effort against the Patriots and exceeded 70 yards four times this year. But he has not scored since week three and usually ends up under 60 yards per game. Dustin Keller is the only other receiver of any note and comes off his scored touchdown of the year when he collected five receptions for 64 yards last Thursday. This remains one he the least productive passing offenses in the NFL and there are no fantasy players here that can be considered a lock for anything beyond a mediocre showing.

The Cardinals are bringing a decent defense but no offense. That should end up with moderate points by the Jets and a much needed win but not like big points. I like the chance for a defensive score in this game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 30 23 24 20 28 11
Preventing Fantasy Points ARI 5 9 16 3 15 30

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Bryce Petty, NYJ @NO 0000017012 *
Petty will replace Josh McCown (hand) at the Saints. There is zero justification for starting him in any conventional setup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bilal Powell, NYJ @NO 4004300000 *
Powell shouldn't be in any fantasy lineups this week. He has one touchdown in the past eight games, catching only four passes in his last four games. The Saints are formidable against his position, rating in the bottom half of the league in both scoring setups.

Update: Matt Forte didn't practice all week and is unlikely to play, making Powell a viable flex in deep leagues.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Matt Forte, NYJ @NO 2003200000 *
There is little to like about the matchup. It's not good for receiving work in terms of volume, though two balls found the end zone. Since Week 9, the Saints have given up 120.4 offensive yards (20th) a game to RBs.

Update: Forte didn't practice all week and is unlikely to play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robby Anderson, NYJ @NO 003400000 *
Anderson's fine season appears poised to crash and burn when it matters most. The loss of quarterback Josh McCown means Bryce Petty will be the starter, and there's little incentive to chancing this one with the playoffs at stake. Play him if you must. New Orleans has been vulnerable of late to wideouts, though this defense has missed two of its key secondary members at times in the last five weeks to skew the stats in a negative way.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jermaine Kearse, NYJ @NO 003300000 ***
Kearse faces a Saints defense that looks like a good matchup using recent data, but injuries hurt their cause. Now healthy, the secondary is trending in the stronger direction. Toss in Bryce Petty as Kearse's new starting quarterback and it's time to look elsewhere.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, NYJ @NO 003201000 *
Tight ends have averaged a mere 3.5 catches (24th) for 42 yards (21st) against the Saints over the past five games. One in nine grabs made it into the end zone (14th). Bryce Petty replaces Josh McCown at quarterback for the Jets.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chandler Catanzaro, NYJ @NO 1111 ***
No Josh McCown should stymie the offense's momentum. The Saints have allowed only 4.2 combined kicking tries per outing (19th).

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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