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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: CAR 24, KC 13 (LINE: CAR by 3)

Players to Watch: Cam Newton

The 3-8 Panthers come off a rare road win in Philly looking to string together two victories. The 1-10 Chiefs have not scored a touchdown in two weeks and have lost eight straight. The Chiefs are playing opponents nearly even not because they are that good, but because everyone knows they are going to win anyway so why try so hard? Playing the Chiefs is like a partial bye week.

Carolina Panthers
Homefield: Bank of America Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @TB 10-16 10 DEN 14-36
2 NO 35-27 11 TB 21-27
3 NYG 7-36 12 @PHI 30-22
4 @ATL 28-30 13 @KC -----
5 SEA 12-16 14 ATL -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @SD -----
7 DAL 14-19 16 OAK -----
8 @CHI 22-23 17 @NO -----
9 @WAS 21-13 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CAR @ KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Cam Newton 50,1 250,2
WR Torrey Smith 3-40
WR Jarius Wright 5-60,1
TE Greg Olsen 5-50,1
PK Graham Gano 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: Hard to imagine but the Panthers may actually win not only two consecutive games, but two consecutive road games. Right now the Eagles and Chiefs both are waving the white flag and the Panthers stand to benefit. There's been no real progress made this year with Cam Newton but that's partially the fault of his receivers and the scheme he is in. What is starting to brew is the speculation that HC Ron Rivera will be dumped in the offseason and that any new coach is going to have to on board with Newton and his different style of play. And yes, shades of Michael Vick...

Newton almost always scores in every game and yet never has passed for more than two scores. His yardage has been better in recent weeks and he took advantage of the Eagles last week when he passed for two touchdowns and rushed in two more. Of course that only serves to completely neuter one of the worst rushing attacks in the NFL but by now there is no fantasy value in the running backs anyway.

Johnathan Stewart suffered a high-ankle sprain and he been nursing an older one since back in August.This ankle that Stewart injured is not the same as the one from this summer. Of course that calls into question why you would make that person be the primary back, but by now the Panthers have zero confidence in DeAngelo Williams which he justified by rushing for 21 yards on 11 carries in the Philly win. For once it doesn't even matter who is injured - no one is going to offer reliable productivity from the running back position in terms of fantasy points.

While Steve Smith still commands most of the coverage Brandon LaFell has been far more productive in the last month with a touchdown and at least 70 yards in each of the last two games. Smith has only scored once all year and is currently stuck at a ceiling of around 60 yards per game. He's only marginally better than the tight end Greg Olsen.

Playing the Chiefs usually cures whatever ails you. But their weakness against running backs is not as glaring this week with nothing more than DeAngelo Williams coming to town. The Panthers should win this game but there's not likely to be much fantasy value in any of the players outside of Newton and the starting two wide receivers.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CAR 8 29 23 13 32 9
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 21 23 15 12 27 31

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Kyle Allen, CAR @NO 30000018011 *
Kyle Allen is expected to get the start with Cam Newton still ailing and Taylor Heinicke down for the count. There is zero reason, even if New Orleans indeed rests everyone of note, to chance it with Allen in any format.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Cameron Artis-Payne, CAR @NO 6003200000 *
CAP is poised to see an expanded role as Christian McCaffrey is expected to be rested, according to Ron Rivera. The Saints are one of the worst matchups for running backs but have nothing to play for this week. There isn't much upside here, but he could be utilized in the right setting.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR @NO 5003200000 *
McCaffrey is expected to be rested in this one, or at least see a drastic reduction in work. The matchup is awful, and it's really not much better if the Saints indeed rest everyone of note.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DJ Moore, CAR @NO 2004500000 *
Two weeks ago, Moore went for just 12 yards on two catches vs. the Saints. While the overall matchup is favorable, Carolina is on its third-string quarterback -- an undrafted fellow making his first NFL appearance. Avoid all Carolina receivers.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Curtis Samuel, CAR @NO 3003200000 *
QB Taylor Heinicke was put on IR this week, meaning undrafted rookie will get the start. Samuel could rack up some points in PPR because of his versatility and short-area passing skills, but he is still a risky play in any situation. The Saints held him to a season-low 3.5 points two weeks ago.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Devin Funchess, CAR @NO 002300000 *
Funchess has four catches in his last four games, including consecutive goose eggs, and only 33 yards to his credit. One of those grabs went into the end zone, but he hasn't posted nine or more PPR points since Week 7. New Orleans was one of the teams to shut him out. Kyle Allen will get the start this week after backup Taylor Heinicke was placed on IR.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Ian Thomas, CAR @NO 003301000 *
Two weeks ago, Thomas saw four balls come his way, landing two for 14 yards. He rebounded adequately in Week 16 (4-48-1) but still has just one game on the year with more than 48 yards and has scored the lone TD.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chandler Catanzaro, CAR @NO 3311 ***
No writeup available

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT 13-16
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN 6-28
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN 9-17
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR -----
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE -----
6 @TB 10-38 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK 16-26 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD 13-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
KC vs CAR Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Henne 260,2

Pregame Notes: The Chiefs offense has declined so badly that they have not score more than one touchdown in any of the last seven games and three failed to record any. This was a bad team before the switch to Brady Quinn. Now it cannot even score double digits.the last two weeks. Aside from Jamal Charles, this team has the look of one that either completely gave up or never had the talent to be competitive.

Quinn comes off his second start of the year and still no touchdowns or more than 180 yards in either game. To his credit he only threw one interception and did not make many mistakes but then again - he did not do much of anything. This week he is going against a top ten secondary. He has ruined the fantasy value of Dwayne Bowe and is dragging the offense into the gutter for the stretch run. It gets painful to watch.

Dexter McCluster suffered a concussion last week and will have to clear his tests but he has no history of them and it did not appear to be more than a mild one. McCluster has been providing Quinn with a passing outlet three or four times per game.

Jamaal Charles should be getting half of everyone else's paychecks. On this offense with minimal other talent, Charles is still running yard and comes off 107 yards on 23 carries against the Broncos. He's topped 100 yards four times and is still playing hard even if no one else seems to be. Whatever good the offense can produce will be almost entirely because of Charles who should be productive for the rest of the fantasy season with games against CAR, CLE, OAK and IND remaining.

The passing situation is so dire now that Steve Breaston is being inactive for games. Jon Baldwin has declined until he finally reached no catches last week. Dwayne Bowe did just get 12 targets last week but only ended up with four catches for 41 yards and he was blanked by the Bengals the previous week.

Aside from Charles, there is no fantasy plays left on this team. They have gone into full bore implosion and the only thing left to happen is for the defense to finally give up and allow the floodgates for opponent's scores to open.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 32 3 32 30 21 27
Preventing Fantasy Points CAR 10 26 6 17 32 19

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Patrick Mahomes, KC OAK 20000028030 ***
Mahomes is the only 30-point passer in fantasy vs. Oakland this year. The last three weeks have been in favor of Oakland, with four picks and only five TDs allowed. Big Ben was the best of he, Jeff Driskel and Case Keenum, as one would expect. KC has something at stake, so keep rolling with Mahomes.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Damien Williams, KC OAK 4004401000 ***
Williams was effective but saw only seven touches in Week 13. The Raiders have been tough against PPR backs his year, so we could be looking at an optimistic projection. Spencer Ware should return, which will diminish Williams' workload.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Spencer Ware, KC OAK 6013200000 **
Ware returned to full practice this week and is expected to play. The Raiders gave up just 52 yards to Ware in a featured role in Week 13, but he found the end zone to salvage 12.2 points. He's a flex or low-end RB2 this week, but don't be overly excited to play him.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Demarcus Robinson, KC OAK 002301000 **
Robinson has four catches on six targets for 24 yards -- total -- in the last two weeks. He has, however, scored in each of those games and is a high-risk, modest-reward flier in fantasy this week. The Raiders have given up only 156 catches to WRs, but 22 have scored, which is a clip of once every seven grabs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyreek Hill, KC OAK 004600000 ***
Hill has not scored in four games and was held to just one catch for 13 yards on six targets vs. Oakland in the Week 13 trip to California. This project could prove to be conservative, and his explosive nature means he shouldn't leave lineups in conventional setups. DFS gamers can look for better options. Oakland has given up a TD every seven catches by WRs this year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Chris Conley, KC OAK 003300000 ***
He caught a touchdown in the last meeting, so there is a hint of upside, especially since Oakland has been super generous to WRs this year when it comes to scoring. Conley isn't an ideal play in any format, but he could do in a pinch or as a gamble in DFS. He has exactly one explosive game in 2018 (26.4 points vs. LAR).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Travis Kelce, KC OAK 0081101000 ***
Oakland has given up the sixth-most points in PPR to tight ends this year, and that number jumps up from 14.9 a game to 18.1 in the last five weeks. Most of the damage is due to Kelce owning the Raiders for a ridiculous line of 12-168-2 in Week 13.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Harrison Butker, KC OAK 3344 ***
No writeup available

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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