FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: CLE 20, OAK 23 (LINE: OAK by 1)

Players Updated: Darren McFadden, Marcel Reece, Brandon Weeden

Players to Watch: Darren McFadden

Here is one of those ugly games. Both teams are 3-8 on the season with the Raiders on a four-game losing stretch and the Browns coming off a rare win. The difference is that the Browns actually have a defense of sorts and yet not a great offense. The Raiders have no defense as far as can be proven and an offense that sputters on a good day. Coin toss game that could have all sorts of mistakes that impact the outcome.

The Raiders won 24-17 when the Browns visited last year.

Cleveland Browns
Homefield: Cleveland Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 PHI 16-17 10 BYE -----
2 @CIN 27-34 11 @DAL 20-23
3 BUF 14-24 12 PIT 20-14
4 @BAL 16-23 13 @OAK -----
5 @NYG 27-41 14 KC -----
6 CIN 34-24 15 WAS -----
7 @IND 13-17 16 @DEN -----
8 SD 7-6 17 @PIT -----
9 BAL 15-25 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Kenny Britt 3-40
WR Josh Gordon 4-60,1

Pregame Notes: The Browns are winding down their season with a few decent opportunities to post points before wrapping up with road games to Denver and Pittsburgh that likely are not going to go well. The defense has been very good recently by holding the last six opponents to 24 points or less but the offense never scores that many points and hence the fundamental problem. Adding a quarterback and running back in the NFL draft still looks like a good idea. They just need receivers for the quarterback and not just some guy they scraped off the supplemental draft.

Brandon Weeden suffered a concussion last week and needs to pass his tests this week in order to play. If he cannot, Colt McCoy gets to reprise the reason why the Browns were even worse in 2011. Weeden's status will be clearer at the end of the week. If he cannot play, the offense takes a big hit that it hardly can survive.

Trent Richardson may be lagging Doug Martin but not by all that much. He's scored seven touchdowns and remained above 100 total yards in each of the last four games with a trip to meet the #30 defense this week. He's stepped up his role as a receiver as well with 16 reception over just the last three weeks. Richardson gives the Browns a solid core for the offense and a great fantasy play for this week.

Jordan Cameron finally caught his first NFL touchdown but has been a nonfactor all year after getting talked up in the summer. Ben Watson hasn't been fantasy relevant either though he had a freakish two touchdown game in Dallas.

This lackluster passing attack is now using for different wide receivers every week and there is simply not enough production combined to merit fantasy attention. Josh Gordon remains the best by far but that only equates to around 50 yards per game for the last month. His string of three straight scoring games is a dot in the rear view mirror by now and Greg Little declined down to a single catch last week. Weeden suggests that he could handle the job with better receivers but that help is not coming this year.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CLE 29 18 29 25 19 10
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 28 30 21 27 31 17

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB DeShone Kizer, CLE JAC 30000017012 ***
The worst matchup in fantasy for one of the worst rookie quarterbacks in recent memory ... no thanks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Isaiah Crowell, CLE JAC 6014300000 ***
The Jaguars have yielded just one rushing score in the last 81 carries against them, which is the seventh-strongest rate. Crowell has scored in consecutive games and is enjoying a minor renaissance after being a bust for the first half of 2017. Overall, his matchup is soundly in the negative column, and this is a slightly optimistic projection.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Duke Johnson Jr., CLE JAC 3005400000 ***
The Jaguars have given up just 5.0 receptions for 39.5 yards and a score every 10 catches, or every other game. There isn't a ton of upside here, especially with an inexperienced quarterback who will struggle with checkdowns.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Corey Coleman, CLE JAC 002300000 ***
Coleman returns from injury to face the worst possible matchup available. Avoid him in all setups.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Ricardo Louis, CLE JAC 001200000 ***
Jacksonville ranks as the toughest defense of wideouts in both scoring formats. The softest this team ranks in receptions, yards or TDs is third-hardest.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Seth DeValve, CLE JAC 002200000 ***
DeValve has no place on a fantasy roster right now, and this is a terrible matchup to boot.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Zane Gonzalez, CLE JAC 2211 ***
Gonzalez has topped six fantasy points only one time this season. Avoid him in all formats.

Oakland Raiders
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SD 14-22 10 @BAL 20-55
2 @MIA 13-35 11 NO 17-38
3 PIT 34-31 12 @CIN 10-34
4 @DEN 6-37 13 CLE -----
5 BYE ----- 14 DEN -----
6 @ATL 20-23 15 KC -----
7 JAC 26-23 16 @CAR -----
8 @KC 26-16 17 @SD -----
9 TB 32-42 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Marshawn Lynch 90,1 2-10
WR Michael Crabtree 4-60,1
TE Jared Cook 1-20,1
PK Sebastian Janikowski 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Raiders are having the worst of problems currently since their current four game losing streak has them allowing an average of 42 points per opponent and yet the offense has only once been better than 20 points. Their last three losses were all by at least 21 points. The offense is capped in what it can accomplish but there is apparently no end to how bad the defense can play.

Carson Palmer had a very uncharacteristic bad game when he only threw for 146 yards and one score against an inspired Bengals team. But he was scoring multiple touchdowns in the four previous games and passed for over 300 yards in three of those. Palmer has a bit of a problem with turnovers and totals 12 interceptions and four lost fumbles so far. But he delivers plenty of yards and usually two scores in most recent games.

Darren McFadden may return this week from his ankle injury after missing the last three weeks and allowing Marcel Reece to actually play well. This would be an opportune week for him to return against the Browns defense but it depends on how he practices and how well he can shoulder much of the load. Updates as information becomes available later in the week. With three home games ahead and then week 16 in Carolina, this is a very opportune time for him to make a showing on fantasy teams. For this first week, it may be impossible to know how much McFadden can play and now much Reece still helps out. It has only been three weeks since he got his high ankle sprain which is short unless it was very mild.

Joe Haden should end up on Darius Heyward-Bey who was just shut down in Cincinnati to no catches. Brandon Myers gets to face the #1 defense against his position so the passing game is going to need to go through Denarius Moore over any other receiver. This can be made much easier if McFadden plays and makes the Browns respect the run more. As with all Oakland games, there could be several outcomes possible here and the one that happens will probably involve the lowest fantasy points from an offense that has really slipped and appears to be reaching that part of the season where "oh screw it" sets in.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 13 21 17 10 10 31
Preventing Fantasy Points CLE 20 20 25 1 9 13

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Derek Carr, OAK NE 0000031021 ***
Since the early-season woes of this pass defense, the Patriots have turned things around to be respectable against the position. All told, this is the 11th-best defense since Week 5, giving up 255 aerial yards and 1.3 TDs per contest.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Marshawn Lynch, OAK NE 600000000 ***
Beast Mode-lite has no fantasy efficacy without crossing the stripe, and the Patriots have done a masterful job of preventing such of late. Only one time in the last 84 carries has a rushing touchdown been scored vs. New England.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jalen Richard, OAK NE 1005400000 ***
One time a running back has scored in the last four games against the Patriots, and none of the 18 receptions against went the distance. Keep Richard in reserve, unless you're feeling lucky.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB DeAndre Washington, OAK NE 2001100000 ***
Washington faces a brutal matchup and is part of a three-pronged attack. The Patriots have given up just one TD in the last 102 offensive touches.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Michael Crabtree, OAK NE 005801000 ***
New England usually keys on stopping one player from the opposing offense and then allows everything to fall into place. Is it Crabtree this week, or will they look to eliminate Amari Cooper? It's probably Crabtree, since Coop does a good job most weeks of removing himself via drops. Either way, Crabs is the safer play and has a sliver of upside against the fifth-softest defense of his position.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Amari Cooper, OAK NE 003400000 ***
This defense has done well at limiting touchdowns to wideouts, relatively speaking, based on how many catches it allows. Since Week 5, wideouts have averaged the fifth-highest volume of per-game snares while going to the end zone once every 13.8 hauls, or once per game. Cooper is impressively underachieving.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jared Cook, OAK NE 006601000 ***
No team has yielded fewer fantasy points in PPR than the Patriots against this position. Cook takes on a defense allowing 3.8 catches for 23.5 yards and a TD every 15 snags.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Giorgio Tavecchio, OAK NE 2222 ***
No team has been stronger against kickers than the Patriots since Week 4, and most of that is because the position has made a paltry 4-for-10 from distance.

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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