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David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: CLE 20, OAK 23 (LINE: OAK by 1)

Players Updated: Darren McFadden, Marcel Reece, Brandon Weeden

Players to Watch: Darren McFadden

Here is one of those ugly games. Both teams are 3-8 on the season with the Raiders on a four-game losing stretch and the Browns coming off a rare win. The difference is that the Browns actually have a defense of sorts and yet not a great offense. The Raiders have no defense as far as can be proven and an offense that sputters on a good day. Coin toss game that could have all sorts of mistakes that impact the outcome.

The Raiders won 24-17 when the Browns visited last year.

Cleveland Browns
Homefield: Cleveland Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 PHI 16-17 10 BYE -----
2 @CIN 27-34 11 @DAL 20-23
3 BUF 14-24 12 PIT 20-14
4 @BAL 16-23 13 @OAK -----
5 @NYG 27-41 14 KC -----
6 CIN 34-24 15 WAS -----
7 @IND 13-17 16 @DEN -----
8 SD 7-6 17 @PIT -----
9 BAL 15-25 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass

Pregame Notes: The Browns are winding down their season with a few decent opportunities to post points before wrapping up with road games to Denver and Pittsburgh that likely are not going to go well. The defense has been very good recently by holding the last six opponents to 24 points or less but the offense never scores that many points and hence the fundamental problem. Adding a quarterback and running back in the NFL draft still looks like a good idea. They just need receivers for the quarterback and not just some guy they scraped off the supplemental draft.

Brandon Weeden suffered a concussion last week and needs to pass his tests this week in order to play. If he cannot, Colt McCoy gets to reprise the reason why the Browns were even worse in 2011. Weeden's status will be clearer at the end of the week. If he cannot play, the offense takes a big hit that it hardly can survive.

Trent Richardson may be lagging Doug Martin but not by all that much. He's scored seven touchdowns and remained above 100 total yards in each of the last four games with a trip to meet the #30 defense this week. He's stepped up his role as a receiver as well with 16 reception over just the last three weeks. Richardson gives the Browns a solid core for the offense and a great fantasy play for this week.

Jordan Cameron finally caught his first NFL touchdown but has been a nonfactor all year after getting talked up in the summer. Ben Watson hasn't been fantasy relevant either though he had a freakish two touchdown game in Dallas.

This lackluster passing attack is now using for different wide receivers every week and there is simply not enough production combined to merit fantasy attention. Josh Gordon remains the best by far but that only equates to around 50 yards per game for the last month. His string of three straight scoring games is a dot in the rear view mirror by now and Greg Little declined down to a single catch last week. Weeden suggests that he could handle the job with better receivers but that help is not coming this year.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CLE 29 18 29 25 19 10
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 28 30 21 27 31 17

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Baker Mayfield, CLE @DEN 0000030011 ***
The Broncos have gone in different directions with the strength of their defense over the last six or so weeks. The run D has stiffened, and the pass defense has struggled mightily in the last five games. No team has yielded more passing yards per game (357), but only one in 19 completions has scored a TD (sixth-lowest frequency). Mayfield should produce respectable stats for owners able or required to field two quarterbacks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Nick Chubb, CLE @DEN 8013400000 ***
Chubb has scored in five straight games and six of the last seven. He has only one game with more than 85 yards in that time on the ground, but his aerial work has helped offset the limited rushing gains. Denver has been night and day better against RBs since giving up 200-yard rushers in consecutive games. Since Week 6, no RB has scored on the ground, and only once it has come through the air. That includes several quality rushing attacks (ARI, KC, HOU, LAC, PIT, CIN, SF). This one could go either way, but Chubb deserves the benefit of the doubt at this stage.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Antonio Callaway, CLE @DEN 003601000 ***
Callaway is far to erratic to trust with anything of consequence at stake. The rookie saw only one target and caught it for zero yards against a fantastic matchup last week, and he has only one game with more than three catches since Week 8. The matchup with Denver is prime for success, but can you trust him?
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarvis Landry, CLE @DEN 005700000 ***
After a fairly quiet stretch, Landry has reemerged as a fantasy asset in recent weeks, landing a 6-103-0 line in Week 13 and scoring his first TD since Week 7 against the Panthers in Week 14. This time around, Denver is the target. Their secondary has regressed enough to make Landry a sure bet for double figures. The top scorer for each opponent this year has been no worse than 13.6 PPR points, and Denver has faced several horrendous passing offenses.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Breshad Perriman, CLE @DEN 002300000 ***
Perriman is not a fantasy thing, especially for owners in the playoffs. He has five targets in his last three games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE David Njoku, CLE @DEN 004500000 ***
No team has allowed more yardage to tight ends than Denver this year, and Njoku faces a defense that has permitted the third-most catches per game in the last five weeks. Erratic play is a concern, but he is a quality play for gamers willing to take the chance.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Greg Joseph, CLE @DEN 2222 ***
No writeup available

Oakland Raiders
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SD 14-22 10 @BAL 20-55
2 @MIA 13-35 11 NO 17-38
3 PIT 34-31 12 @CIN 10-34
4 @DEN 6-37 13 CLE -----
5 BYE ----- 14 DEN -----
6 @ATL 20-23 15 KC -----
7 JAC 26-23 16 @CAR -----
8 @KC 26-16 17 @SD -----
9 TB 32-42 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Marshawn Lynch 90,1 2-10
RB Doug Martin 90 5-30
WR Brandon LaFell 4-60
WR Jordy Nelson 5-80,1
TE Jared Cook 1-20,1
PK Mike Nugent 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Raiders are having the worst of problems currently since their current four game losing streak has them allowing an average of 42 points per opponent and yet the offense has only once been better than 20 points. Their last three losses were all by at least 21 points. The offense is capped in what it can accomplish but there is apparently no end to how bad the defense can play.

Carson Palmer had a very uncharacteristic bad game when he only threw for 146 yards and one score against an inspired Bengals team. But he was scoring multiple touchdowns in the four previous games and passed for over 300 yards in three of those. Palmer has a bit of a problem with turnovers and totals 12 interceptions and four lost fumbles so far. But he delivers plenty of yards and usually two scores in most recent games.

Darren McFadden may return this week from his ankle injury after missing the last three weeks and allowing Marcel Reece to actually play well. This would be an opportune week for him to return against the Browns defense but it depends on how he practices and how well he can shoulder much of the load. Updates as information becomes available later in the week. With three home games ahead and then week 16 in Carolina, this is a very opportune time for him to make a showing on fantasy teams. For this first week, it may be impossible to know how much McFadden can play and now much Reece still helps out. It has only been three weeks since he got his high ankle sprain which is short unless it was very mild.

Joe Haden should end up on Darius Heyward-Bey who was just shut down in Cincinnati to no catches. Brandon Myers gets to face the #1 defense against his position so the passing game is going to need to go through Denarius Moore over any other receiver. This can be made much easier if McFadden plays and makes the Browns respect the run more. As with all Oakland games, there could be several outcomes possible here and the one that happens will probably involve the lowest fantasy points from an offense that has really slipped and appears to be reaching that part of the season where "oh screw it" sets in.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 13 21 17 10 10 31
Preventing Fantasy Points CLE 20 20 25 1 9 13

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Derek Carr, OAK @CIN 0000025020 ***
Carr hasn't thrown an INT in eight straight games and has five TDs in his last two. The Bengals have been the easiest team to exploit in 2018, but don't tell that to Philip Rivers owners. Legit quarterbacks have trounced this defense. In the last month, though, Cincy has escaped total evisceration by facing Lamar Jackson and Case Keenum. Rivers, as mentioned, had an uncharacteristically weak game. Carr should be solid but is obviously a risky proposition as a QB2 in dual-passer formats.

Update: Oakland could be without its two starting offensive guards. The silver lining is Cincy's defense is ravaged by injuries.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Doug Martin, OAK @CIN 7012200000 ***
Cincinnati has been the worst defense of the position in 2018, and it has come in all forms and fashions. Only one team has allowed more rushing yards, and the position has scored 14 times in 13 games on the ground, adding six more in the air. Martin is a sound bet to score for the fourth consecutive week.

Update: Oakland could be without its two starting offensive guards. The silver lining is Cincy's defense is ravaged by injuries.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jalen Richard, OAK @CIN 2004400000 ***
Pass-catching RBs have found a bunch of success vs. the Bengals in 2018. This is the friendliest positional matchup using the whole season's data, and all of that holds true for the last five weeks. Richard hasn't scored in 2018 but is a dark horse for a strong fantasy day in PPR.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Seth Roberts, OAK @CIN 005800000 ***
It has been six games since Roberts has visited the end zone, and that historically has been the only way he produces fantasy-worthy stats. The Raiders have thrown to him 13 times in the last two games, which is encouraging, but he his 5-76-0 line last week is his strongest day without a TD in the last three years. Stay away, despite the reasonably solid matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marcell Ateman, OAK @CIN 002201000 ***
He has at least four targets in each of his games over the past month, but the rookie has only one touchdown and hasn't posted a yardage figure over 50 this year. The matchup is great, but he has no value outside of DFS.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordy Nelson, OAK @CIN 002300000 ***
Nelson has come around a little in the last two games, landing 16 of his 18 targets for 145 yards. He hasn't scored since Week 5 and has an outside shot at getting into the end zone vs. Cincy's modest defense of the position.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jared Cook, OAK @CIN 003501000 ***
Cincinnati has surrendered only 16 receptions in the last five games, yet two of them went into the end zone. This is mostly a strong matchup over the course of 2018, and Cook should remain in conventional lineups.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Daniel Carlson, OAK @CIN 1133 ***
No writeup available

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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