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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: HOU 27, TEN 17 (Line: HOU by 5.5)

Players to Watch: Jake Locker, Chris Johnson

The 10-1 Texans won 38-14 when the 4-7 Titans visited in week four. Just to throw some lack of clarity into this game, the Titans just fired their offensive coordinator Chris Palmer and replaced him with QB coach Dowell Loggains. Hard to imagine that will immediately improve the offense.

Houston Texans
Homefield: Reliant Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 MIA 30-10 10 @CHI 13-6
2 @JAC 27-7 11 JAC 43-37
3 @DEN 31-25 12 @DET 34-31
4 TEN 38-14 13 @TEN -----
5 @NYJ 23-17 14 @NE -----
6 GB 24-42 15 IND -----
7 BAL 43-13 16 MIN -----
8 BYE ----- 17 @IND -----
9 BUF 21-9 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass

Pregame Notes: What a difference a cornerback must make. It may seem extreme, but the last two full games played by CB Johnathan Joseph resulted in allowing a combined 15 points total. In two games without him, the Texans gave up 68 points. And the Jaguars and Lions were hardly the highest scoring teams prior to playing the Texans. Joseph's hamstring wasn't able to heal up in the short week before Thanksgiving but will have ten days to rest before this week.

After Schaub threw for a career best 527 yards and five touchdowns on the Jaguars, he still passed for 315 yards in Detroit though with only one touchdown. Oddly enough, letting the Texans get into shoot-outs these last two weeks have done wonders for the fantasy value of the passing game. Schaub only threw for 202 yards and two scores against the visiting Titans in week four.

Arian Foster was finally held to no touchdowns in week 11 but he was right back at it on Thanksgiving with 102 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries. He added five catches for 15 yards as well. Ben Tate remains out and in his place Justin Forsett had the cheapest touchdown in the history of the NFL when he was clearly down, then got back up and ran for an 81-yard touchdown. HC Jim Schwartz threw a challenge flag which was not to be done since it was to be reviewed anyway. Instead he made the play stand and got a penalty to boot. This team remains pure Foster when it comes to rushing the ball. Foster gained 86 yards and one score in the last meeting with the Titans.

Andre Johnson just set the all-time record for most yardage over two consecutive games with 461 yards. He only scored once on those 23 receptions and it was his only score since week three. Johnson only caught three passes for 56 yards versus the Titans last time. Owen Daniels turned in one of his best games of the season in week three when he reeled in six passes for 72 yards and one touchdown versus the TItans.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 17 1 27 2 4 8
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 26 29 19 29 29 21

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Deshaun Watson, HOU JAC 40100018000 ***
Jacksonville has been strong against quarterbacks pretty much all year, and the worst game of Watson's fantasy season came vs. this defense in Week 7. He managed only 139 passing yards and one touchdown, adding 13 yards on the ground. He has been really good the last two games, so stick with him.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Lamar Miller, HOU JAC 10012200000 **
Miller sat last week and is trending toward playing this week. Check back for an update to be sure.The Jaguars allowed him 100 yards and a TD in Week 7, but the matchup has since soured other than Derrick Henry's aberration a few weeks back.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB D'Onta Foreman, HOU JAC 2004300000 ***
Foreman was pitiful on the ground in his first game since Week 11 of last year. He caught two passes, including a touchdown, to salvage a 10.7-point day in PPR. Lamar Miller is expected to return this week, so keep Foreman on the low end of your list of worthwhile gambles. Jacksonville has been stout all year vs. RBs, with the exception of one notable blip.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU JAC 005600000 ***
The star went for 50 yards and a TD on three catches in the earlier meeting. he was good for a 7-55-1 line in last year's home start vs. the Jags. This could be a conservative projection in a way, but it's also a brutal matchup. Play him in traditional leagues but with tempered expectations. He should be avoided in DFS.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Vyncint Smith, HOU JAC 002300000 ***
With a whopping two NFL grabs to his name, Smith was able to score last week on a 35-yarder. He is currently averaging 31.5 yards per catch in his extremely small sample size. The Jaguars are about as tough as they come vs. WRs, and Smith shouldn't be a factor in fantasy.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Keke Coutee, HOU JAC 002300000 *
Coutee looks like he is on track to play this week but shouldn't be a part of the plan in fantasy lineups. Jacksonville has smothered WRs this year, and while he will have a larger role with Demaryius Thomas lost for the year, the rookie is too risky of a play for most situations.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ka'imi Fairbairn, HOU JAC 1133 ***
No writeup available

Tennessee Titans
Homefield: LP Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 13-34 10 @MIA 37-3
2 @SD 10-38 11 BYE -----
3 DET 44-41 12 @JAC 19-24
4 @HOU 14-38 13 HOU -----
5 @MIN 7-30 14 @IND -----
6 PIT 26-23 15 NYJ -----
7 @BUF 35-34 16 @GB -----
8 IND 13-19 17 JAC -----
9 CHI 20-51 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TEN vs HOU Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Tannehill 240,1
PK Ryan Succop 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Titans let OC Chris Palmer go after struggling to score against the Jaguars last week and that should make the DC Jerry Gray squirm since his defense has allowed 34+ points six times already this year.

The remaining games are not likely to get much better until the season ender against the Jaguars. The season is already over and what now strikes some fear is if they will start to try out other players or mess around with the offense and impact Chris Johnson since he's been the only real fantasy starter in this offense up until now.

Jake Locker was knocked out of the week four meeting with the Texans that led to him missing six weeks. Matt Hasselbeck ended up with 193 pass yards and two touchdowns in that game that ended up with Kendall Wright (4-46) and Craig Stevens (2-24). Kenny Britt was still out that week and Nate Washington ended with only 43 yards on three receptions in that game.

Chris Johnson actually kicked off his return to prominence in that game when he rushed for 141 yards on 25 carries. He's since posted five more games with at least 90 rushing yards and scored four times. At home there's no worry that the interim OC will change up the one thing that actually works on the offense.

The Texans have been giving up major passing yardage in the last two games which at least in part happened with CB Johnathan Joseph out but he's due to return this week anyway. A switch in coaches is unlikely to spark the offense much, especially against the Texans who are already familiar with the Titans personnel.

What happens this week will be interesting since the Texans defense has not allowed anyone else to gain more than 80 rushing yards on them and only two rushers have scored on them all year. The Titans are in some turmoil this week and the Texans just see a divisional opponent they can beat. Jake Locker is less likely to have the same success that Chad Henne and Matt Stafford recently did when facing the Texans. This week should answer more about the Texans defense than the Titans offense.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 22 26 19 9 16 18
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 15 1 20 24 7 5

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ryan Tannehill, TEN IND 10000016012 ***
Tannehill threw three touchdown passes in the Week 13 meeting with Buffalo but managed a pathetic 137 yards in the sky and a chortle-inducing -5 yards on the ground. The Bills remain fantasy's toughest defense of the position and shouldn't have too much trouble keeping Tannehill in check.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Derrick Henry, TEN IND 801000000 ***
Henry was pretty good but not dominant last week, and he was robbed of a touchdown chance with a pass at the goal line. Indianapolis gave up 46 yards on nine carries vs. Henry in Week 11. He faces a defense that has been far more favorable to face as a pass-catching back than a powerback.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Dion Lewis, TEN IND 2003200000 ***
This matchup drastically favors Lewis over Derrick Henry. The Colts have given up 105 catches on the year, being just one of three teams to allow more than 100. Oddly, he caught just one ball in the Week 11 game, and he wasn't a capable on the ground. He is a risky play in any situation but has a matchup to back up his style of play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Adam Humphries, TEN IND 006800000 **
He posted a modest 3-82-0 line in the Week 6 game and is coming off of a 10-79-0 showing. Humphries has enough target volume to matter if he doesn't score, which hasn't happened in three straight games. He has a hint of upside in this one due to the matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Corey Davis, TEN IND 004500000 ***
Indy kept him in check (2-30-0) in Week 11, and following games with touchdowns in the two games following, he hasn't scored in three straight outings. Davis is a low-end play, and Indianapolis rates as the fourth-toughest matchup in fantasy.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Taywan Taylor, TEN IND 002300000 ***
With zero TDs to his name since Week 2, Taylor is not a worthwhile play. He missed the last game between these teams and has only two games with double figures since Week 4.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN IND 003300000 ***
Sharpe has one score since Week 4 and it came against Indianapolis in Week 11. He has four catches since. There is almost no incentive to play him, aside from that score in the previous game. Look for smarter choices.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Anthony Firkser, TEN IND 004301000 ***
He has a hint of upside and could be a sneaky play. The Colts have given up only four TDs to tight ends this year, though, but it still ranks as the third-best matchup in PPR due to volume.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ryan Succop, TEN IND 1122 ***
No writeup available

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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