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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: IND 23, DET 24 (LINE: DET by 4)

Players Updated: Mikel Leshoure

Players to Watch: TY Hilton, Ryan Broyles

The 7-4 Colts are not going to win the division with the 10-1 Texans in control, but they currently have a one game lead over all other AFC teams for the #5 seed wildcard. The Colts are only 2-3 on the road though and the 4-7 Lions are also 2-3 at home and on a three game losing streak. This game could go either way very easily.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC 27-10
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE 24-59
3 JAC 17-22 12 BUF 20-13
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET -----
5 GB 30-27 14 TEN -----
6 @NYJ 9-35 15 @HOU -----
7 CLE 17-13 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN 19-13 17 HOU -----
9 MIA 23-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND @ DET Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 10 240,2
RB Frank Gore 80,1 1-10
RB Robert Turbin 3-20
WR T.Y. Hilton 5-70,1
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The 7-4 Colts have a great shot at a wildcard but two matchups with the Texans in the final three weeks are likely to impact what happens to the Colts After Manning. With any luck, the Texans will have nothing to play for in that final game and just sends the subs to Indy for the game. This year has been a rousing success already if only in what Andrew Luck has done

Andrew Luck comes off one of his worst games of the year when he only threw for 240 yards and one score against the visiting Bills and he was held to only 227 yards and no passing scores by the Jaguars though he ran in two scores in that game. He's already thrown for a record setting five 300 yards games but always seems to come up smaller in games against the easier defenses. His 13 passing touchdowns are balanced by five rushing scores.

The rushing effort has been bad all year and only scored three rushing touchdowns with no one rushing for more than 80 yards in any game. In most weeks, Donald Brown and Vick Ballard are splitting the workload and neither has much fantasy value with no scores or even more than one catch per game. This hopefully is address in the draft next year.

The passing effort has boiled down to almost entirely Reggie Wayne and his 84 catches for 1105 yards. Looking deep for either Donnie Avery or TY Hilton. The tight ends rarely figure in nor do the running backs. Luck has progressed enough that he can rely on just the wide receivers. The rookie Hilton has come on strongly in the last four games with a total of four touchdowns and two efforts that exceeded 100 yards. He was blanked in week 10 by the Jags but otherwise has been producing bug numbers for the last month. He is taking over that deep role that Avery started the season out supplying.

This will be a very good test for Luck against a banged up Lions secondary. If the Colts can't win here, the playoffs will be a one week deal if they even make it there. But win this week and the Colts turnaround from last year will have been even more remarkable.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 9 28 6 22 17 26
Preventing Fantasy Points DET 13 11 13 28 25 29

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jacoby Brissett, IND TEN 00000000 *
Brissett was good for just 16.1 fantasy points in the last meeting with the Titans. While Tennessee's secondary was obliterated by Big Ben last week, Brissett doesn't have the talent or weaponry to suggest he can do the same. No bye weeks also make it tougher to start him.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Marlon Mack, IND TEN 3012200000 ***
While the Titans have held RBs in check from a touchdown perspective, giving up just one score on the last 73 attempts, this is a great matchup through the air. Backs have managed 8.8 catches for 59 yards a game, both ranking second.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Frank Gore, IND TEN 5001100000 ***
Gore averaged a quality 4.9 yards on 10 carries in the Week 6 meeting. He was not all too productive in last year's contests. Tennessee offers one of the better matchups in Week 12, though it may not be this Colts back who reaps the benefits.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Chester Rogers, IND TEN 002401000 *
Rogers doesn't belong near a fantasy lineup, even with a decent projection for this game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Donte Moncrief, IND TEN 003300000 ***
In Week 6, he caught five of seven targets for 67 yards -- one of his better games in 2017. Certainly his highest catch volume.... The Titans were embarrassed in the second half last week against Big Ben's receiving corps. While this is a much different situation, at least there is a smidge of upside.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND TEN 002300000 **
This is a very conservative projection and one to heed if you value safety over a big gamble. Hilton shredded them last year and has done well historically vs. Tennessee. In the earlier meeting this season, though, he was held to one catch. The matchup is ideal for Hilton to rip off a big play or two, so feel free to toss him into a lineup with the acceptance of failure in mind.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jack Doyle, IND TEN 005400000 ***
Doyle went for 18 fantasy points in PPR the last time against Tennessee in Week 6. He scored in one of the two games last year. Since that Week 6 game, the Titans have given up 20 catches in four games, with only one finding the end zone.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND TEN 2222 ***
This is the seventh-best matchup for field goal attempts and 10th for fantasy points against. Kickers have made 8.8 of a possible 9.0 fantasy points per game.

Detroit Lions
Homefield: Ford Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 STL 27-23 10 @MIN 24-34
2 @SF 19-27 11 GB 20-24
3 @TEN 41-44 12 HOU 31-34
4 MIN 13-20 13 IND -----
5 BYE ----- 14 @GB -----
6 @PHI 26-23 15 @ARI -----
7 @CHI 7-13 16 ATL -----
8 SEA 28-24 17 CHI -----
9 @JAC 31-14 ----- ----- -----
News | Stats | Roster
DET vs IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Matthew Stafford 290,2
WR Marvin Jones Jr. 3-40
WR Golden Tate 3-40
PK Matt Prater 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: These last two losses - both by four points or less - pretty much ensure that the 4-7 Lions are going to have yet another losing season since their remaining slate contains only one team with a losing record and the Cardinals game goes off in Arizona. The defense has given up 24+ points in four of the last five games but at least the offense is scoring better. The only useful part of the remaining season is determining how much they like their current receivers and backfield for next year.

Matt Stafford comes off a season high 441 passing yards against the Texans on Thanksgiving but he's never been better than the defense this season and caught the Texans with an injured secondary. He still scores in almost every game but rarely passes for more than one score.

Mikel Leshoure is not doing much in yardage but at least he's scored in three of the last four games. He has no role as a receiver and his yardage rarely top 70 yards but he gets the bulk of all rushing carries every week. Joique Bell is losing playing time to Kevin Smith in recent weeks but still has the only other running back scores since the season opener. Only Leshoure has fantasy value and that is marginal in most weeks.

While Calvin Johnson went into a lull from weeks four through eight, he's been on fire the last four games with over 120 yards in every matchup and scoring in each of the last three. He's passed A.J. Green to reclaim his spot as the top fantasy wideout. Titus Young was held out last week for disciplinary reasons and may not play in this game as well. Ryan Broyles took his place against the Texans and gained 126 yards on six catches. It appears that Young has lost his starting job for good since Broyles was expected to gain more work by next year anyway.

The nice part of the remaining schedule? It should see the Lions behind in almost all games and needing to throw. And that is the only part of the offense that generates useful fantasy points.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DET 5 10 4 8 8 28
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 14 22 27 2 11 22

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Matthew Stafford, DET MIN 0000025020 ***
Stafford's worst game of 2017 was against the Vikings in Week 4. He finished with 16 and 18.6 fantasy points, respectively, in the two meetings last year. Minnesota is one of the better defenses against quarterbacks, but this game has so much riding on it.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ameer Abdullah, DET MIN 5011100000 ***
Would you have guessed right if the question was against which team did Abdullah enjoy his most fantasy success in 2017? Yep. The Vikings permitted him 94 rushing yards and a TD in Week 4, and he added a 3-15-0 line through the air. This time around, Minnesota enters with the 22nd-best matchup for Abdullah, based on data since Week 6.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Theo Riddick, DET MIN 2003300000 ***
Minnesota has had Riddick's number. He has just seven catches and no touchdowns over the last three meetings. Since Week 6, the Vikings have granted RBs seven catches a game (6th-most) but no aerial TDs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marvin Jones Jr., DET MIN 005701000 ***
Jones failed to score in any of the last three meetings with Minnesota. The Vikings have surrendered just two TDs in the past 47 receptions by wideouts. With only one poor game in the past seven weeks, Jones is a decent gamble.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kenny Golladay, DET MIN 002500000 ***
Golladay may be good for a big play here or there, which is about all right now. It's tough to bank on his limited involvement translating into fantasy rewards, particularly so against a stout defense.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Golden Tate, DET MIN 003300000 ***
Tate had 16 catches in two games last year against the Vikes, scoring once and racking up 156 yards. The 2017 Week 4 meeting left much to be desired (3-29-0). Consider this a slightly conservative projection, but Minnesota ranks in the bottom dozen teams against WRs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Eric Ebron, DET MIN 002301000 *
Ebron caught only two balls for 27 yards the last time out against the Vikings. Minnesota has not yielded a tight end touchdown in the last 19 grabs. This is a low-end matchup across the board, and Ebron's projection is optimistic.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Matt Prater, DET MIN 1133 ***
This is a solidly negative matchup. The position has made seven of eight field goal attempts and six of the seven point-afters. Prater made two of his three kicks in the previous meeting.

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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