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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: JAC 20, BUF 27 (Line: BUF by 6)

Players Updated: Justin Blackmon, Cecil Shorts, Donald Jones

Players to Watch: Chad Henne, Justin Blackmon, Rashad Jennings

The 2-9 Jaguars come off a win over the Titans that ended a seven game losing streak. That's so embarrassing for the Titans that they fired their offensive coordinator after the game. The 4-7 Bills come off a loss in Indianapolis where lead wideout openly complained about Chan Gailey calling the plays. That makes this happy setup a hard one to call because both teams are inconsistent at best and mostly bad anyway. Have to like the homebound Bills but the Jags seem to have finally realized they can get back into the race if they just have a different driver. All this time Blaine Gabbert though he was driving an automatic transmission and it was really a five-speed manual.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND 10-27
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU 37-43
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN 24-19
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE -----
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
PK Kai Forbath 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars scored 51 points in just two games and one was in Houston. That speaks volumes to how much better the offense is running with Chad Henne at the helm. And this was all without Maurice Jones-Drew. Imagine being able to pass and run just like a real NFL team. It boggles the mind that Blaine Gabbert threw nine touchdowns over ten games and Chad Henne has six over just the last two weeks. The season is plenty lost and Jones-Drew may not even make it back this year or ever. But at least this late season revival is setting the stage for hopefully better things next year.

Henne passed for 354 yards and four scores in Houston and he still followed that up with 261 yards and two more touchdowns in the win over the Titans. The major difference is that he actually throws downfield. Gabbert threw for only 1662 yards this year and averaged only 10 yards per completion. Henne has thrown for 615 yards over the last two games and averaged 19 yards per completion. Big difference. The defense was already crowding the line because of Jones-Drew anyway, and Gabbert would not or could not throw deep completions to make them pay.

Jalen Parmele's big coming out party was short lived since he injured his leg after eight runs last week and left the game. I'll count him out for now and adjust according to what he does in practice. Rashad Jennings took over for him and ran for only 43 yards on 16 carries which is exactly why he was replaced. He did score in the game for the second time all year. Maurice Jones-Drew is still not expected back this week and his healing process may be lacking in dedication to a quick return. While he should be back before the season ends, what shape he is in or what his level of drive will be remains to be seen. We have probably already seen the best of MJD for this year to be sure.

The increased passing effort has helped Marcedes Lewis to score twice and stick around 40 to 50 yards per game. Cecil Shorts was already the lone decent receiver and he is on a three game scoring streak and topped 100 yards in three of the last five games. Justin Blackmon is said to be more dedicated in practice and finally getting a handle on the game speed in the NFL. He comes off a five catch, 62 yard game with one score on the Titans. He certainly appears to be getting it.

The Bills remain bottom ten in defense against almost all the positions and especially running back which could help Jennings produce at least marginal stats. Once again we will watch the passing effort. Third time in a row and that's a full blown trend.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 23 31 13 27 26 30
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 23 32 23 16 16 23

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC @HOU 30000019000 ***
"Hooray!" That must be what every one of you is saying about the idea of Blake Bortles returning to a starting lineup. No? No one? Fine ... Houston has been eviscerated by quarterbacks in the last five weeks -- especially so in the last three games. The matchup is tempting for DFS players looking to gain an edge on the competition with a divergent but extremely risky play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB T.J. Yeldon, JAC @HOU 4013200000 **
Update: Leonard Fournette (foot, ankle) is unlikely to play with a doubtful tag, which means Yeldon could see the bulk of the work. He was a healthy scratch in Week 16, and Carlos Hyde is questionable to play. This situation is volatile, so look for safer choices with better matchups. RB David Williams may get his shot, though, relegating Yeldon to third-down chores. Yeldon scored a receiving TD in the earlier contest, for whatever it is worth.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Carlos Hyde, JAC @HOU 3001100000 *
Update: Leonard Fournette is doubtful, and Hyde, while questionable, could see extra work. He has no fantasy utility, due to a tough matchup, his own injury, and the idea of losing touches to either David Williams or T.J. Yeldon.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Donte Moncrief, JAC @HOU 003500000 **
Jacksonville turns back to Blake Bortles for the finale, which bodes well for Moncrief. He caught seven balls for 76 yards in the Week 7 contest vs. Houston. The Texans have been atrocious on the back half of the defense in recent weeks. Half of their season-long TD told has come in the past five games. Moncrief could be better than his projection suggests and has a hint of upside in all formats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DJ Chark Jr., JAC @HOU 004400000 ***
Chark should be close to returning this week, and Blake Bortles is back in the lineup. The rookie caught four balls for 31 yards in the last meeting and is not a fantasy option in any setting.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dede Westbrook, JAC @HOU 004400000 **
This defense has fallen apart on the back end in the last five weeks, giving up six touchdowns (12 on the year) and more than 1,000 yards in those five games. Westbrook was good for only 17 yards in the first game. Blake Bortles returns to the starting lineup, and the second-year receiver has a little appeal for flier purposes.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Kai Forbath, JAC @HOU 1111 ***
No writeup available

Buffalo Bills
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NYJ 28-48 10 @NE 31-37
2 KC 35-17 11 MIA 19-14
3 @CLE 24-14 12 @IND 13-20
4 NE 28-52 13 JAC -----
5 @SF 3-45 14 STL -----
6 @ARI 19-16 15 SEA -----
7 TEN 34-35 16 @MIA -----
8 BYE ----- 17 NYJ -----
9 @HOU 9-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Chris Ivory 30
RB LeSean McCoy
TE Charles Clay 4-50
PK Stephen Hauschka 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Bills offense never much came back after their week eight bye with three of the four games posting fewer than 20 points. Stevie Johnson called publicly for HC Chan Gailey to stop calling plays which seems more like something to discuss in his offense than the newspaper. Any maybe not after a game where he was targeted 15 times and produced 106 yards for his best of the season. But his complaint is hardly new - most defenses are saying that the Bills offense is predictable and unimaginative. Throw in a bad defense and you have some problems.

Ryan Fitzpatrick seems highly inconsistent with four games of no scores in the last seven weeks and yet four games with three touchdowns. The secret to Johnson is simple - he is as good or bad as the defense allows him to be. Nothing more and nothing less. When he faces a great defense, he won't reach 200 yards or score no matter the venue. When it is a bad defense - say like the Patriots - he throw for over 300 yards and several touchdowns every time. This week the Jaguars on the road are bottom ten in defense. Fitzpatrick should do okay this week.

Now that Fred Jackson is back from his concussion, he'll be the 40% to C.J. Spillers 60% each week which means you almost have a decent fantasy start with Spiller. Jackson scored twice in New England but has been of marginal production in virtually every other game. Spiller has gained 100 total yards in each of the last six games but has just one score in the last nine games and his role as a receiver has gone down as well.

The receivers are still just about Stevie Johnson who rarely scores but does gain 70+ yards in almost every game. Scott Chandler has lost all fantasy value by now which means he may be in for a good game. Donald Jones is still a starter but is wildly inconsistent with games from literally a one yard loss on one catch up to 90 yards and a score. Fortunately the defense they face is below average which means Spiller and Johnson both are must starts this week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 21 6 28 17 24 15
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 25 28 24 8 30 18

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Josh Allen, BUF MIA 50000026021 ***
Allen rushed for a ridiculous 135 yards against the Dolphins in Week 13 and managed to throw two touchdowns. He was one of four quarterbacks to top 30 points vs. Miami this year, and Allen could make for a sneaky play in DFS or two-QB formats this week, especially if Miami is still dealing with injuries in the secondary.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeSean McCoy, BUF MIA 6012200000 ***
Even with a good matchup, like this one, McCoy really isn't playable. He was laughably bad last week (1.5 yards per carry). In the Week 13 meeting, Shady went for 52 rushing yards and 12 receiving gains on four receptions -- 10.4 points in PPR.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robert Foster, BUF MIA 005801000 ***
Foster has at least five targets and four receptions in three straight games. New England predictably held him in check last week, since the Bills really offered nothing else to occupy defensive attention in the down-field passing game. The Dolphins held him to just one catch for 27 yards in the Week 13 meeting, so tread carefully if you were anticipating a bounce-back showing. Foster is a so-so gamble in deep formats and a better play if CB Xavien Howard doesn't play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Zay Jones, BUF MIA 005701000 ***
Jones has scored three times in the last four games, coming in two of the contests. He found the end zone twice on four catches for 67 yards against Miami in Week 13 and again vs. the Pats in Week 16. There is a little upside to this one, but be careful. Check to see the final status of Miami cornerback Xavien Howard, too, as it will make difference in the depth of the overall secondary.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Isaiah McKenzie, BUF MIA 2005500000 ***
McKenzie has a little wiggle to his game and was able to post 46 yards on four grabs vs. Miami a few weeks back. He hasn't scored through the air in his short career and has two rushing TDs to his credit. He landed just one of eight targets last week and is not a fantasy asset.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jason Croom, BUF MIA 003300000 ***
Miami offers a decent enough matchup, but there is no incentive otherwise to play Croom. Find a better balance of risk and reward.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Stephen Hauschka, BUF MIA 1133 ***
No writeup available

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

a d v e r t i s e m e n t