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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: JAC 20, BUF 27 (Line: BUF by 6)

Players Updated: Justin Blackmon, Cecil Shorts, Donald Jones

Players to Watch: Chad Henne, Justin Blackmon, Rashad Jennings

The 2-9 Jaguars come off a win over the Titans that ended a seven game losing streak. That's so embarrassing for the Titans that they fired their offensive coordinator after the game. The 4-7 Bills come off a loss in Indianapolis where lead wideout openly complained about Chan Gailey calling the plays. That makes this happy setup a hard one to call because both teams are inconsistent at best and mostly bad anyway. Have to like the homebound Bills but the Jags seem to have finally realized they can get back into the race if they just have a different driver. All this time Blaine Gabbert though he was driving an automatic transmission and it was really a five-speed manual.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND 10-27
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU 37-43
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN 24-19
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE -----
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
JAC @ BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Henne 260,2
RB Chris Ivory 30
TE Marcedes Lewis 4-50

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars scored 51 points in just two games and one was in Houston. That speaks volumes to how much better the offense is running with Chad Henne at the helm. And this was all without Maurice Jones-Drew. Imagine being able to pass and run just like a real NFL team. It boggles the mind that Blaine Gabbert threw nine touchdowns over ten games and Chad Henne has six over just the last two weeks. The season is plenty lost and Jones-Drew may not even make it back this year or ever. But at least this late season revival is setting the stage for hopefully better things next year.

Henne passed for 354 yards and four scores in Houston and he still followed that up with 261 yards and two more touchdowns in the win over the Titans. The major difference is that he actually throws downfield. Gabbert threw for only 1662 yards this year and averaged only 10 yards per completion. Henne has thrown for 615 yards over the last two games and averaged 19 yards per completion. Big difference. The defense was already crowding the line because of Jones-Drew anyway, and Gabbert would not or could not throw deep completions to make them pay.

Jalen Parmele's big coming out party was short lived since he injured his leg after eight runs last week and left the game. I'll count him out for now and adjust according to what he does in practice. Rashad Jennings took over for him and ran for only 43 yards on 16 carries which is exactly why he was replaced. He did score in the game for the second time all year. Maurice Jones-Drew is still not expected back this week and his healing process may be lacking in dedication to a quick return. While he should be back before the season ends, what shape he is in or what his level of drive will be remains to be seen. We have probably already seen the best of MJD for this year to be sure.

The increased passing effort has helped Marcedes Lewis to score twice and stick around 40 to 50 yards per game. Cecil Shorts was already the lone decent receiver and he is on a three game scoring streak and topped 100 yards in three of the last five games. Justin Blackmon is said to be more dedicated in practice and finally getting a handle on the game speed in the NFL. He comes off a five catch, 62 yard game with one score on the Titans. He certainly appears to be getting it.

The Bills remain bottom ten in defense against almost all the positions and especially running back which could help Jennings produce at least marginal stats. Once again we will watch the passing effort. Third time in a row and that's a full blown trend.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 23 31 13 27 26 30
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 23 32 23 16 16 23

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC @ARI 30000021011 ***
Arizona is starting to stiffen a little against quarterbacks. This is the 11th-best matchup overall, which seems fine, but only one in 18 completions has scored (23rd) and the 249.3 yards permitted a contest ranks 16th.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Leonard Fournette, JAC @ARI 9012200000 ***
Arizona has been beaten up by running backs of late. One in 32.3 carries scores, and this is the sixth-best matchup for offensive yards per outing. Fournette should do just fine in this one.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB T.J. Yeldon, JAC @ARI 2003300000 ***
Yeldon faces a defense giving up 7.5 receptions (4th) and 57.8 yards (3rd) through the air on a weekly basis. Unfortunately for him, only one in 30 catches went into the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marqise Lee, JAC @ARI 004400000 ***
Arizona has calmed down a great deal against wideouts after a rocky stretch. The secondary remains vulnerable, but it has held the position to only two TDs in the past four games, or 42 catches worth.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dede Westbrook, JAC @ARI 002400000 ***
Westbrook is still getting his legs back underneath him after missing so much time. The rookie is talented but a major work in progress. Fantasy owners can look elsewhere for now.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Keelan Cole, JAC @ARI 002300000 ***
Cole comes with a tiny bit of upside if Allen Hurns is once again out of the lineup. The matchup is decent, and most of the attention will go the way of Marqise Lee. Even still, playing Cole is inviting more risk than reward to a lineup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Marcedes Lewis, JAC @ARI 003401000 ***
One in nine catches by tight ends have scored on Arizona in the past four games. Overall, it's a rather neutral matchup. Lewis is an all-or-nothing fantasy play.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Lambo, JAC @ARI 3322 ***
All 18 kicks (8 field goals) have split the pipes against the Cardinals since Week 6. This is the 11th-best matchup for Week 12 on the basis most of the work was done after TDs.

Buffalo Bills
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NYJ 28-48 10 @NE 31-37
2 KC 35-17 11 MIA 19-14
3 @CLE 24-14 12 @IND 13-20
4 NE 28-52 13 JAC -----
5 @SF 3-45 14 STL -----
6 @ARI 19-16 15 SEA -----
7 TEN 34-35 16 @MIA -----
8 BYE ----- 17 NYJ -----
9 @HOU 9-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB LeSean McCoy
RB Mike Tolbert 30 2-10
TE Charles Clay 4-50
PK Stephen Hauschka 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Bills offense never much came back after their week eight bye with three of the four games posting fewer than 20 points. Stevie Johnson called publicly for HC Chan Gailey to stop calling plays which seems more like something to discuss in his offense than the newspaper. Any maybe not after a game where he was targeted 15 times and produced 106 yards for his best of the season. But his complaint is hardly new - most defenses are saying that the Bills offense is predictable and unimaginative. Throw in a bad defense and you have some problems.

Ryan Fitzpatrick seems highly inconsistent with four games of no scores in the last seven weeks and yet four games with three touchdowns. The secret to Johnson is simple - he is as good or bad as the defense allows him to be. Nothing more and nothing less. When he faces a great defense, he won't reach 200 yards or score no matter the venue. When it is a bad defense - say like the Patriots - he throw for over 300 yards and several touchdowns every time. This week the Jaguars on the road are bottom ten in defense. Fitzpatrick should do okay this week.

Now that Fred Jackson is back from his concussion, he'll be the 40% to C.J. Spillers 60% each week which means you almost have a decent fantasy start with Spiller. Jackson scored twice in New England but has been of marginal production in virtually every other game. Spiller has gained 100 total yards in each of the last six games but has just one score in the last nine games and his role as a receiver has gone down as well.

The receivers are still just about Stevie Johnson who rarely scores but does gain 70+ yards in almost every game. Scott Chandler has lost all fantasy value by now which means he may be in for a good game. Donald Jones is still a starter but is wildly inconsistent with games from literally a one yard loss on one catch up to 90 yards and a score. Fortunately the defense they face is below average which means Spiller and Johnson both are must starts this week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 21 6 28 17 24 15
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 25 28 24 8 30 18

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Tyrod Taylor, BUF @KC 40100021001 **
Quarterback drama aside, the matchup is favorable. Kansas City has allowed the seventh-highest yardage figure per game, while permitting 1.5 TDs per contest through the sky. Quarterbacks have rushed one touchdown on only eight carries, as well. Taylor could be a sly play for DFS or desperate owners, but that would require this projection to be on the conservative side.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeSean McCoy, BUF @KC 7014300000 ***
Little damage has come through the air by running backs against KC. The defense has allowed 18 receptions for 112 yards in the past four games, but none of those catches have scored. On the ground, Shady can do some damage against a defense that has given up four rushing TDs in the past four games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Zay Jones, BUF @KC 006700000 ***
KC has given up top-five figures for receptions, yards, non-PPR and PPR points per game. The only low point is a TD every 11.2 grabs, which ranks 12th. Jones could be in for a surprisingly solid game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Deonte Thompson, BUF @KC 003400000 ***
Thompson will have a larger role if either Kelvin Benjamin or Jordan Matthews don't play. Matthews is more likely to go than KB. Either way, despite a good matchup, Thompson is not a fantasy consideration in most situations.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordan Matthews, BUF @KC 004400000 *
Check back later in the week for an update on Matthews' status.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Charles Clay, BUF @KC 003300000 ***
Tight ends have mustered only 14 total catches in the last four games against the Chiefs, with just one going into the end zone. Clay is a risky bet in any setup.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Stephen Hauschka, BUF @KC 1122 ***
Six of a possible 7.8 fantasy points per game have been scored on the Chiefs. Kickers have nailed nine of 10 XPAs and five of seven three-pointers.

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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