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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: JAC 20, BUF 27 (Line: BUF by 6)

Players Updated: Justin Blackmon, Cecil Shorts, Donald Jones

Players to Watch: Chad Henne, Justin Blackmon, Rashad Jennings

The 2-9 Jaguars come off a win over the Titans that ended a seven game losing streak. That's so embarrassing for the Titans that they fired their offensive coordinator after the game. The 4-7 Bills come off a loss in Indianapolis where lead wideout openly complained about Chan Gailey calling the plays. That makes this happy setup a hard one to call because both teams are inconsistent at best and mostly bad anyway. Have to like the homebound Bills but the Jags seem to have finally realized they can get back into the race if they just have a different driver. All this time Blaine Gabbert though he was driving an automatic transmission and it was really a five-speed manual.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND 10-27
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU 37-43
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN 24-19
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE -----
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Jamaal Charles 100,1 6-40

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars scored 51 points in just two games and one was in Houston. That speaks volumes to how much better the offense is running with Chad Henne at the helm. And this was all without Maurice Jones-Drew. Imagine being able to pass and run just like a real NFL team. It boggles the mind that Blaine Gabbert threw nine touchdowns over ten games and Chad Henne has six over just the last two weeks. The season is plenty lost and Jones-Drew may not even make it back this year or ever. But at least this late season revival is setting the stage for hopefully better things next year.

Henne passed for 354 yards and four scores in Houston and he still followed that up with 261 yards and two more touchdowns in the win over the Titans. The major difference is that he actually throws downfield. Gabbert threw for only 1662 yards this year and averaged only 10 yards per completion. Henne has thrown for 615 yards over the last two games and averaged 19 yards per completion. Big difference. The defense was already crowding the line because of Jones-Drew anyway, and Gabbert would not or could not throw deep completions to make them pay.

Jalen Parmele's big coming out party was short lived since he injured his leg after eight runs last week and left the game. I'll count him out for now and adjust according to what he does in practice. Rashad Jennings took over for him and ran for only 43 yards on 16 carries which is exactly why he was replaced. He did score in the game for the second time all year. Maurice Jones-Drew is still not expected back this week and his healing process may be lacking in dedication to a quick return. While he should be back before the season ends, what shape he is in or what his level of drive will be remains to be seen. We have probably already seen the best of MJD for this year to be sure.

The increased passing effort has helped Marcedes Lewis to score twice and stick around 40 to 50 yards per game. Cecil Shorts was already the lone decent receiver and he is on a three game scoring streak and topped 100 yards in three of the last five games. Justin Blackmon is said to be more dedicated in practice and finally getting a handle on the game speed in the NFL. He comes off a five catch, 62 yard game with one score on the Titans. He certainly appears to be getting it.

The Bills remain bottom ten in defense against almost all the positions and especially running back which could help Jennings produce at least marginal stats. Once again we will watch the passing effort. Third time in a row and that's a full blown trend.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 23 31 13 27 26 30
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 23 32 23 16 16 23

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC HOU 0000027021 ***
Bortles is either all or nothing this year. Three of his games have produced more than 30 fantasy points, while the other trio were good for only 17 or fewer. Houston has provided only 246.2 yards (seventh fewest) on a weekly basis, with one of every 12.4 connections finding paydirt (13th-easiest rate to exploit). Tom Brady went for 26.1, Eli Manning was good for 22.8, and Andrew Luck shredded them for 40.3 points. Otherwise, the likes of Dak Prescott, both Bills QBs, and Blaine Gabbert all posted fewer than 17.8 points.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB T.J. Yeldon, JAC HOU 5004301000 ***
Yeldon did not practice Wednesday due to foot and ankle injuries. Being a dual-threat back is what keeps his value afloat when the touchdowns aren't there. The Texans are one of the stronger defenses against the position. The highlight for exploitation purposes come via two receiving TDs allowed on 26 catches. Yeldon is a low-end RB2 in PPR or a fair flex play.

Update: Yeldon was removed from the injury report, and he shouldn't have to contend with Carlos Hyde this week after a trade brought the veteran back into the fold. There is little reason to expect Hyde to see the field in Week 7 without any extended practice time.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Keelan Cole, JAC HOU 005601000 *
Despite 15 targets over the last two games and at least eight in half of his games, Cole has only one game with more than 11 PPR points to show for it. The end zone has evaded him since Week 2. Houston allowed him a career day in 2017's Week 15 game (7-186-1).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dede Westbrook, JAC HOU 004600000 ***
Aside from giving up a touchdown per game to receivers, the Texans have done a respectable job at limiting the position. Some if it due to matchups with poor passing offenses. The second-year Westbrook has emerged as the de factor WR1 of this hodgepodge group. He has flier appeal for finding the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Donte Moncrief, JAC HOU 003500000 ***
A week after a 15-target game, Moncrief saw three looks and was blanked. The inconsistency can be a killer in fantasy, and it's not like he was playing lights out before the setback. With bye weeks and a mostly negative matchup, consider him a desperation flex.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Lambo, JAC HOU 2233 ***
No writeup available

Buffalo Bills
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NYJ 28-48 10 @NE 31-37
2 KC 35-17 11 MIA 19-14
3 @CLE 24-14 12 @IND 13-20
4 NE 28-52 13 JAC -----
5 @SF 3-45 14 STL -----
6 @ARI 19-16 15 SEA -----
7 TEN 34-35 16 @MIA -----
8 BYE ----- 17 NYJ -----
9 @HOU 9-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Chris Ivory 30
RB LeSean McCoy
TE Charles Clay 4-50
PK Stephen Hauschka 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Bills offense never much came back after their week eight bye with three of the four games posting fewer than 20 points. Stevie Johnson called publicly for HC Chan Gailey to stop calling plays which seems more like something to discuss in his offense than the newspaper. Any maybe not after a game where he was targeted 15 times and produced 106 yards for his best of the season. But his complaint is hardly new - most defenses are saying that the Bills offense is predictable and unimaginative. Throw in a bad defense and you have some problems.

Ryan Fitzpatrick seems highly inconsistent with four games of no scores in the last seven weeks and yet four games with three touchdowns. The secret to Johnson is simple - he is as good or bad as the defense allows him to be. Nothing more and nothing less. When he faces a great defense, he won't reach 200 yards or score no matter the venue. When it is a bad defense - say like the Patriots - he throw for over 300 yards and several touchdowns every time. This week the Jaguars on the road are bottom ten in defense. Fitzpatrick should do okay this week.

Now that Fred Jackson is back from his concussion, he'll be the 40% to C.J. Spillers 60% each week which means you almost have a decent fantasy start with Spiller. Jackson scored twice in New England but has been of marginal production in virtually every other game. Spiller has gained 100 total yards in each of the last six games but has just one score in the last nine games and his role as a receiver has gone down as well.

The receivers are still just about Stevie Johnson who rarely scores but does gain 70+ yards in almost every game. Scott Chandler has lost all fantasy value by now which means he may be in for a good game. Donald Jones is still a starter but is wildly inconsistent with games from literally a one yard loss on one catch up to 90 yards and a score. Fortunately the defense they face is below average which means Spiller and Johnson both are must starts this week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 21 6 28 17 24 15
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 25 28 24 8 30 18

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Derek Anderson, BUF @IND 0000017002 *
Signed slightly more than a week ago, Anderson will replace Nathan Peterman as the primary backup. There could be 30 teams on their bye week and Anderson still wouldn't be fantasy-worthy.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeSean McCoy, BUF @IND 7012200000 ***
Shady strung together his two best games of the year in the past couple of weeks, and he looked closer to 100 percent healthy in Week 6. The Bills face a Colts defense that has yielded the fifth-most rushing attempts and 14th-most yards per game, while only two of the last 124 carries have scored (24th). This is the fourth-best opponent for receptions (9th for yards); one of the 35 grabs found the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Zay Jones, BUF @IND 004400000 ***
Derek Anderson wills start in place of the injured Josh Allen, which is an upgrade from Nathan Peterman, but that doesn't say much. The Bills are about as anemic of an offense as one can find, and that is being said a week after Jones' best game of the season. The Bills have scored 26 total points in the last three games, or one point fewer than the 27-6 win over the Vikings in Week 3. Fade Jones in all formats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kelvin Benjamin, BUF @IND 003300000 ***
Benjamin has caught fewer than a third of his passes and is on his third QB in just two games. There is absolutely no reason to chance it, even with a decent enough matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Charles Clay, BUF @IND 002200000 ***
Clay posted six fantasy points in PPR last week and is as deep of a flier as one could be willing to risk, only because of the matchup and bye weeks. It his hard to imagine how desperate an owner must be to consider him playable, but if you're that person, the matchup is pretty good for catches and yards.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Stephen Hauschka, BUF @IND 2211 ***
No writeup available

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

a d v e r t i s e m e n t