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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: MIN 20, GB 31 (LINE: GB by 9)

Players Updated: Percy Harvin, Kyle Rudolph, Greg Jennings

Players to Watch: Greg Jennings

The Vikings were swept by the Packers last year, losing 27-33 at home and later 7-45 in Green Bay.

Minnesota Vikings
Homefield: Metrodome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 JAC 26-23 ot 10 DET 34-24
2 @IND 20-23 11 BYE -----
3 SF 24-13 12 @CHI 10-28
4 @DET 20-13 13 @GB -----
5 TEN 30-7 14 CHI -----
6 @WAS 26-38 15 @STL -----
7 ARI 21-14 16 @HOU -----
8 TB 17-36 17 GB -----
9 @SEA 20-30 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
TE Kyle Rudolph 3-30
PK Dan Bailey 2 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: The 6-5 Vikings hold onto a winning record is probably over for good this year. After getting waxed in Chicago, they get to play this week in Green Bay, then host the Bears, then road trips to good defenses in St. Louis and Houston before a final wrap up against the Packers. So no more of that whole "favored to win" thing. These final five games are going to be brutal and with Percy Harvin still ailing, they are literally down to Arian Peterson and more Adrian Peterson.

Peterson actually missed the team bus to Chicago last week but for some reason he was not suspended like most players would be. I have to think HC Leslie Frazier finally caught up to him and gave him a very stern apology for leaving without him. Plus a free dinner coupon at Applebees because it is ADRIAN PETERSON MAN. No - all men are not created equal. Not in purple anyway.

Adrian Peterson only gained 51 yards on 14 runs in Green Bay last year but scored once. He is on a five game stretch of 100+ rushing yards and always remains above 100 total yards in every game regardless.

Christian Ponder really flounders when Percy Harvin is not there to constantly throw passes at. Ponder passed for just 190 yards and no scores in Green Bay last year. The entire set of wideouts are one of the weakest in the league and are weakest once you deduct Harvin. Jerome SImpson has been of no help and Michael Jenkins insists on being Michael Jenkins. Kyle Rudolph became the primary receiver for the last two weeks and scored in each while catching around six passes for 60 yards in both. His stock for next year has to be higher because the team around him is bound to get better. In theory anyway.

The rookie Jarius Wright has shown up for two weeks now covering for Harvin. He is somewhat encouraging with 3-65 and a score against the Lions and then 7-49 in Chicago. Considering the lackluster stats around him, that is pretty good.

The Vikings have to hope that Peterson gets early success and keeps the game competitive because once the Packers get a lead of any size, the Vikings are back to playing volleyball between Ponder and the wideouts.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIN 27 12 30 16 6 21
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 18 17 26 4 18 7

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Kirk Cousins, MIN CHI 0000025010 **
Cousins proved to be playable vs. the Bears in the last meeting, but it wasn't anything to write home about. He finished with 262 yards, two touchdowns and a pair of picks for 21.6 points in fantasy. The Bears may be again without safety Eddie Jackson, though this defense still hasn't given up a 300-yarder other than Brock Osweiler's baffling day in Week 6.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Dalvin Cook, MIN CHI 10013200000 *
The second-year back is looking more like his healthy self in the last few weeks, racking up 209 rushing yards and two scores, adding 62 yards via the pass. He has double-digit PPR totals in five straight outings. Chicago held Cook to a pathetic four PPR points in Week 11, though, and the Bears are the third-toughest defense vs. RBs in 2018. In the last five weeks, though, three of the four rushing scores have come.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Adam Thielen, MIN CHI 006801000 **
The Bears kept Thielen mostly in check in the Week 11 trip to Chicago, allowing seven catches for 66 yards. He has just one 100-yard game since his eight-game streak ended, and it has been three weeks since Thielen has scored. The Bears have surrendered only two touchdowns to WRs in the last five games, but this one could go either way.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Stefon Diggs, MIN CHI 004600000 **
Diggs erupted vs. Chicago for a 13-126-1 line in Week 11, his second-biggest output of the year. He has scored in consecutive games on just six total grabs and is approaching his sixth straight game without a 100-yard performance. Chicago has permitted only two WR touchdowns in the last five games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Kyle Rudolph, MIN CHI 003300000 ***
Nine catches, 122 yards, two TDs ... his ridiculous stat line dwarfed just about the rest of his season. With only two scores coming into Week 16, and Detroit having been relatively strong against the position, Rudolph's game can be considered closer to a fluke. He saw five targets, snaring two for 13 yards against Chicago in their last meeting.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Dan Bailey, MIN CHI 3322 ***
No writeup available

Green Bay Packers
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SF 22-30 10 BYE -----
2 CHI 23-10 11 @DET 24-20
3 @SEA 12-14 12 @NYG 10-38
4 NO 28-27 13 MIN -----
5 @IND 27-30 14 DET -----
6 @HOU 42-24 15 @CHI -----
7 @STL 30-20 16 TEN -----
8 JAC 24-15 17 @MIN -----
9 ARI 31-17 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
GB vs MIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 10 290,3
TE Jimmy Graham 8-70,1
TE Marcedes Lewis 4-50
PK Mason Crosby 1 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: The Packers ended their five game winning streak in a particularly ugly manner in New York that smacked of a Packers team just tired and not giving the effort. Aside from Jordy Nelson catching a 61-yard touchdown in the first quarter, there was nearly no offense by the Packers. Deduct the one pass and Aaron Rodgers passed for only 158 yards and no scores. It all went bad very quickly and never got any better. Fortunately it was clearly an aberration and just "one of those games."

Rodgers passed for 250 yards and four touchdowns versus the visiting Vikings in 2011. His last three home games combined for ten touchdowns. Rodgers will be fine this week and bounce back against a very familiar opponent. The real test will come in week 15 when he plays in Chicago for what may be the NFC North crown.

The rushing effort here ranks as the worst in the NFL and has only scored twice all year. No runners ever get close to 100 yards. They rarely catch many passes. And now Alex Green and James Starks are splitting carries which is like mediocrity in stereo. It may be in Rodgers contract that they are banned from assembling a decent rushing game that could detract from all the passing. Cedric Benson becomes eligible to come off the PUP list but it appears he is in no jeopardy of actually playing any time soon. There could be more info later in the week but most reports have Benson not even close to 100%.

This week will see Greg Jennings practicing and likely playing though he will be limited in his first game back since week four. Randall Cobb has become such a major cog in the offense in his absence that it will be interesting to see how they fit Jennings back in. Cobb scored seven times in the last seven weeks and often led the team in yardage. Jordy Nelson is locked in as the flanker and he led the Packers with five catches for 63 yards and two scores on the visiting Vikings last year. James Jones has been in decline recently and though he was an official starter against the Giants, he was never thrown any passes. With Jennings returning, Jones role is even more in question.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 4 32 1 12 29 16
Preventing Fantasy Points MIN 22 16 11 20 14 12

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Aaron Rodgers, GB DET 20000027020 ***
Rodgers erupted in Week 16 just to remind fantasy gamers who had mostly given up on him that he was still Aaron Rodgers. The Lions incidentally permitted the same 442 yards to Rodgers that New York did in Week 16, and he chucked three touchdown passes on his way to a 35.1-point day in fantasy.

Update: Davante Adams is iffy to play this week, which would dampen Rodgers' overall outlook in fantasy.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jamaal Williams, GB DET 10014300000 ***
Williams has been a fantasy powerhouse in the last two games without Aaron Jones. The second-year back has been a dual threat and should be in all lineups this week. Detroit has been solid against RBs but is still exploitable. All but two teams have produced a high scorer with at least 13.8 fantasy points.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jake Kumerow, GB DET 004601000 ***
A preseason darling, Kumerow scored his first NFL TD in Week 16 and has a reasonable shot at doing it again facing a Detroit defense that has surrendered a WR touchdown every 9.1 catches this year. He's nothing more than a shot in the dark, though, so make sure you know how much risk is being assumed.

Update: Davante Adams is iffy to play this week, which would mean more targets to be spread around.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB DET 005600000 ***
His first NFL TD came against the Lions in Week 5. Valdes-Scantling went for 68 yards on his seven catches in that game but has scored only once since. He had five catches in his previous three games combined before catching five balls vs. the Jets in Week 16. Consider him absolutely nothing more than a low-tier flier with a good scoring matchup.

Update: Davante Adams is iffy to play this week, which would mean more targets to be spread around.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jimmy Graham, GB DET 004501000 **
Graham continues to be mostly irrelevant in fantasy, posting one game with 50 or more yards since Week 6. he has one TD since Week 4 and has seen double-digit targets just twice this year. The Lions were the first team in which Graham saw 11 looks, securing six for 76 yards. Detroit has been mostly neutral against the position but has fared better in PPR at slowing them down. Kyle Rudolph exploded last week, but one of his two scores was on a Hail Mary, so it's tough to get overly excited about it. He still managed eight other catches for nearly 80 yards and a score.

Update: Davante Adams is iffy to play this week, which would mean more targets to be spread around.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mason Crosby, GB DET 3333 ***
No writeup available

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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