FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Follow Follow @DMDorey
 

Predictions Summary »  Player Rankings (Projections) »  myHuddle Projections by Team »  Projections Summary by Team »

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: NE 34, MIA 17 (LINE: NE by 7)

Players to Watch: Brian Hartline, Davone Bess

The Patriots swept the Dolphins last year, winning 38-24 at Miami in the season opener and later 27-24 at home.

New England Patriots
Homefield: Gillette Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @TEN 34-13 10 BUF 37-31
2 ARI 18-20 11 IND 59-24
3 @BAL 30-31 12 @NYJ 49-19
4 @BUF 52-28 13 @MIA -----
5 DEN 31-21 14 HOU -----
6 @SEA 23-24 15 SF -----
7 NYJ 29-26 16 @JAC -----
8 @STL 45-7 17 MIA -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NE @ MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Tom Brady 300,3
WR Julian Edelman 3-30
WR Josh Gordon 4-60,1
TE Dwayne Allen 3-30
PK Stephen Gostkowski 2 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: The Patriot tradition of being a bully when possible is alive and well with back-to-back wins of 35 and 30 points but in fantasy terms - it's all good. The last four weeks have never scored fewer than 37 points and have averaged almost 48 points per week. Nice month.

Tom Brady already passed for 24 touchdowns this year and seven times surpassed 300 passing yards in a game. His last three road games were three or more touchdowns each. His slower start to the season has sped up plenty in the last six weeks or so and he's back to posting big yardage and scores each week. What is going to be interesting is that this week is in Miami where the Fins have given him problems in the past. Then it is two home games against probably the two toughest defenses in the 49ers and Texans.

Though it was the season opener last year, Brady passed for 517 yards and four touchdowns in Miami.

Shane Vereen is getting plenty of work lately with 12 touches in each of the last two games and he scored in both. He's gaining 40+ rushing yards and notched a touchdown on a 83-yard catch and run last Thursday. But Stevan Ridley scored in each of the last four games and totaled over 90 yards in six different games so far. Ridley is a constant each week with decent yardage and a score. Vereen is mixed in with varying results and Danny Woodhead only gets appreciable work as a receiver when the Patriots play against a good defense and Brady needs the outlet.

With Rob Gronkowski out, the tight ends did little to replace him. Even Aaron Hernandez who finally returned from his ankle injury only caught two passes for 36 yards though he also caught a touchdown that was called back for offensive pass interference. Daniel Fells had his one catch like usual and that was all for the tight ends.

Wes Welker did not have any more or less work with Gronk out. He still had seven catches for 71 yards which is right in the same area as his last five games. Julian Edelman is the one who has seen an uptick with a score in each of the last two games and around 60 yards in each.

Welker caught eight passes for 160 yards and two scores in Miami last season while Aaron Hernandez (7-103, TD) and Rob Gronkowski (6-86, TD) both had big games as well.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NE 3 2 15 1 2 2
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 19 5 18 13 23 24

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Tom Brady, NE @CHI 0000030020 ***
Chicago's midrange defensive number against are rather fake. Aaron Rodgers gashed them in two quarters on one leg in the opening week, and then a slew of nobodies struggled until Brock Osweiler lit them up. Russell Wilson, functioning with a high school team of receivers, went for 21 points. Brady should have no problem posting strong QB1 digits this week. Khalil Mack (ankle) on the mend only helps TB12's cause.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB James White, NE @CHI 2007601000 ***
The matchup is tough for all styles of running back, yet White's role in the offense, combined with the only crack in the Chicago defense of fantasy backs is one in every 16 grabs goes into the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Sony Michel, NE @CHI 5002200000 ***
A strong string of games recently could come to a crashing halt against a stingy Bears defense. The matchup rating is the second worst in football and there really isn't a redeeming quality of this matchup -- maybe it is the one in every 16 catches has scored, but that's not Michel's game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Julian Edelman, NE @CHI 007701000 ***
Edelman appeared as limited with a heel injury for Wednesday's practice. Chicago has granted receivers the ninth-most receptions and eighth-highest yardage figure per game since Week 1, which fits Edelman's style of play. This is the third-worst matchup for finding the end zone, though, and it is on the road. Temper your expectations.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Josh Gordon, NE @CHI 005600000 ***
Gordon saw nine targets last week -- the most among Pats receivers. The position has scored only three times in the last four games against the Bears, but including the Week 1 second-half hammering by the Packers, this number jumps to six on the year. Seattle, Arizona and Tampa were the touchdown-less opponents before Albert Wilson went for two last week. Gordon is a risk-reward assessment.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Chris Hogan, NE @CHI 003500000 ***
Hogan has an outside shot at sneaking into the end zone with all of the attention paid to Josh Gordon and Rob Gronkowski near the end zone. Counting on this to happen is asking for a near miracle with the way Hogan has played in 2018. Chicago also makes it unlikely, given the position has been granted only three TDs in the last four games.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Stephen Gostkowski, NE @CHI 4422 ***
No writeup available

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 10-30 10 TEN 3-37
2 OAK 35-13 11 @BUF 14-19
3 NYJ 20-23 12 SEA 24-21
4 @ARI 21-24 13 NE -----
5 @CIN 17-13 14 @SF -----
6 STL 17-14 15 JAC -----
7 BYE ----- 16 BUF -----
8 @NYJ 30-9 17 @NE -----
9 @IND 20-23 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA vs NE Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Tannehill 240,1
RB Frank Gore 80,1 1-10
WR Danny Amendola 1-20

Pregame Notes: The Dolphins are within one win of a .500 season but that may end up at an arm-length away the rest of the year. The Fins need three more wins to end up at 8-8 but have two meetings with the Patriots and a trip to San Francisco left. Short of an upset in one of those three games - assuming they can beat the visiting Jags and Bills - it still leaves them short at 7-9.

No real changes to the offense. Ryan Tannehill remains a game manager with only seven passing touchdowns on the year and usually right around a mediocre 200 pass yards in most games. What's worse is that he only managed two touchdowns in the last three games and yet threw six interceptions over that time period.

Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas continue to timeshare almost equally and if either gets hot they'll take a but more work that week. Bush shockingly had his second best game of the year when the Seahawks showed up and let him gain 87 yards on 14 runs. Daniel Thomas also ran for 60 yards and a score on just nine runs in that game. Bush may not be back next year but at least he is playing hard. He's expressed interest in remaining in Miami when he hits free agency in March but about all he has gotten back is a smile and nod.

Davone Bess turned in a very uncharacteristic 129 yards on seven catches against the Seahawks secondary which not only was a season best but was about twice his normal production. Brian Hartline has been very quiet in the last few weeks and the reality is that he has three big games against bad secondaries and then abject mediocrity otherwise. All combined the wideouts have only produced three touchdowns this year.

Facing the weak Pats secondary should help passing numbers but at best it means they are average for a day. Hartline is the only receiver play here and that is just in a reception points league where you can live with 80 yards or so.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 31 4 31 32 31 25
Preventing Fantasy Points NE 30 13 28 32 3 1

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Brock Osweiler, MIA DET 0000024022 *
Osweiler appears in line to start again after a monster fantasy performance. Detroit, returning from its bye week, comes to town and is among the tougher units vs. quarterbacks. Prior to Aaron Rodgers going for 35.1 fantasy points in Week 5, this group gave up no more than 21 points (Dak Prescott) to Tom Brady, Jimmy G. and Sam Darnold. Osweiler wasn't asked to push the ball down the field and relied on big plays via yards after the catch through the short-area passing game in Week 6. He flirts with playability this week because of the three prominent starters on a one-week hiatus.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Frank Gore, MIA DET 701000000 ***
The geriatric one looked totally gassed late last week when Kenyan Drake came in for the fumble at the goal line. It will be interesting to see how his workload is handled in Week 7. Gore faces a great matchup for yardage (2nd) but terrible for rushing scores (5th worst) against the visiting Lions.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Kenyan Drake, MIA DET 3004300000 **
Drake *should* have added a touchdown to his stat line last week if not for a case of the butterfingers. He faces a Lions defense that has given up a boatload of yardage but only one touchdown over the last 91 carries. Through the air, one in 12 catches by RBs has found the end zone, though. How Frank Gore's workload is managed will be interesting to watch. Drake could be a sneaky play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Danny Amendola, MIA DET 005501000 *
Green Bay embarrassed this defense in Week 5 before Detroit's bye, but it was tough sledding for the position prior to that game. Detroit could get DE Ziggy Ansah back this week, which may force more quick passing by Miami.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Albert Wilson, MIA DET 004700000 ***
Wilson's big-play skills are being put to the test with Brock Osweiler starting. The Dolphins limited his downfield throws last week and forced the receivers to pick up the slack with yards after the catch via screens and short-area routes. The Lions have permitted receivers just three TDs on only 38 receptions in the last four games. Only Jacksonville ranks a tougher matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kenny Stills, MIA DET 002400000 ***
Detroit, outside of the Green Bay game, has done a fairly good job at limiting receivers. Stills is a always a threat to find the end zone, which makes him a lotto ticket in dire situations. Brock Osweiler starting again deserves to draw skepticism. They hooked up for a lone 35-yard play last week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Mike Gesicki, MIA DET 003201000 *
There is no reason to play the promising rookie at this time unless you want to play the odds against a team that has given up a TD to tight ends every 6.33 receptions since Week 1.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jason Sanders, MIA DET 2233 ***
No writeup available

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

a d v e r t i s e m e n t