FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Follow Follow @DMDorey
 

Predictions Summary »  Player Rankings (Projections) »  myHuddle Projections by Team »  Projections Summary by Team »

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: NO 23, ATL 31 (Line: ATL by 4)

Players to Watch: Darren Sproles, Jacquizz Rodgers

This is a replay of week 10 when the Saints beat the visiting Falcons 31-27 to hand them their only loss on the year. This is also probably the best Thursday night matchup they scheduled all year. There is an excellent chance that the Falcons will remember what happened three weeks ago and be out for some revenge.

New Orleans Saints
Homefield: Superdome
Sportexe Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 WAS 32-40 10 ATL 31-27
2 @CAR 27-35 11 @OAK 38-17
3 KC 24-27 12 SF 21-31
4 @GB 27-28 13 @ATL -----
5 SD 31-24 14 @NYG -----
6 BYE ----- 15 TB -----
7 @TB 35-28 16 @DAL -----
8 @DEN 14-34 17 CAR -----
9 PHI 28-13 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NO @ ATL Rush Catch Pass
QB Drew Brees 320,2
WR Dez Bryant 8-110,2
TE Jared Cook 1-20,1

Pregame Notes: Just when a three game winning streak made it all seem in reach, the 49ers showed up with a reminder that the Saints are not there yet. Trailing the Falcons by five games is plenty clear enough that the division is not in play and now that the 5-6 record dips below the .500 mark again, even a wild card or a winning season is looking like a very outside chance. At least in fantasy terms the Saints still post the points and have several games left to play where high scores are a lock.

Drew Brees is not posting the 300 yard games he once did. It has been five weeks since he threw for that much thanks mostly to an improved rushing effort but he has thrown for multiple scores in each of the last nine weeks and posted 298 yards and three scores when they hosted the Falcons in week ten.

Darren Sproles returned last week and went right back to catching seven passes against the 49ers. He was out in week ten when Mark Ingram rushed for 67 yards on 16 carries and Chris Ivory turned in a touchdown on his seven runs for 72 yards. The success of the rushing effort that week was a surprise but has carried over for the last two weeks. Ingram was held to only 27 yards by the 49ers top-ranked defense but he scored and ran for 67 yards in the previous week in Oakland.

Jimmy Graham has been much lower with his yardage this year and scored eight times. And his best game of the year was when he caught seven passes for 146 yards and two scores on the Falcons.

Marques Colston matches on Asante Samuel again and last time that limited him to only 26 yards on three catches though he scored once. Lance Moore was bigger in that game with seven receptions for 91 yards but he almost never scores and had just one game with a touchdown in the last seven weeks.

Expect lower number for most this week playing in Atlanta in a game they'll be more focused to win. Now that their wideouts are all healthy again, the Saints are sure to be forced to abandon the run in the game which means good things for the fantasy fortunes of Brees and the receivers.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NO 2 8 7 3 30 23
Preventing Fantasy Points ATL 6 25 3 22 10 9

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Teddy Bridgewater, NO CAR 0000012010 *
Look for Bridgewater to see most of the work, if not all, since Drew Brees is not going to be needed in this one. The Saints can't travel either direction in the seeding. Sean Payton probably wants to get a good look at what he has in Bridgewater, as well. At any rate, the matchup is favorable, so consider him a QB2 in dual-start formats and a "what the heck" kind of play in DFS. Don't put too much at stake, though.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Drew Brees, NO CAR 0000010000 *
Brees probably starts but plays for virtually no time at all. Stay away in all formats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Dwayne Washington, NO CAR 7013200000 *
Washington could see a large role with the Saints expected to sit the studs. Gamers would need to be in a dire situation or be brave enough to risk a huge letdown in DFS, but he should be extremely cheap and has a great matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Latavius Murray, NO CAR 300000000 ***
With three of the four rushing TDs scored against the Bears this year coming in the last five weeks, Murray could get lucking. He was abysmal in the Week 11 game and is a risky play in any setting.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Ted Ginn Jr., NO CAR 003501000 *
Ginn was activated last week after last playing in Week 4, and he was pretty good (12.4 PPR points). The Saints have nothing at stake, so look for Ginn to see more work as they try to get him back into game shape. He scored last year in two of the three games vs. Carolina and could be a worthwhile flier in DFS.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Keith Kirkwood, NO CAR 005500000 *
Kirkwood should see an expanded role as New Orleans is likely to sit most of the key players. He landed only two passes for 40 yards in the Week 15 meeting but faces a defense that has fallen on hard times and into the placement of being the fourth-softest defense against WRs over the course of the year. He's too volatile of a play, though.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tre'quan Smith, NO CAR 002300000 *
The rookie has run into the proverbial wall after his breakout Week 11 game. Smith has only three catches for 26 yards in the four games afterward, and even with an expanded role in Week 17, the rookie is far too risky to trust with anything important on the line.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Michael Thomas, NO CAR 001100000 *
Thomas probably will see only a series or two, if he plays at all, in a meaningless game for the No. 1 seed. Look for other options, and if your league plays its championship in Week 17, utilize this as an example of why the commish needs to change it up for next year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jared Cook, NO CAR 005801000 ***
Cook has only four catches for 43 yards and no TDs in his last two games combined after consecutive 100-yard efforts. In Week 16, he played just 34 of 62 offensive snaps due to a rib injury. Check his status for this contest before deployment. The veteran went for seven grabs, 100 yards and a score vs. KC in the Week 13 contest, and the Chiefs have been a weak defense of the position all year.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Wil Lutz, NO CAR 2222 *
No writeup available

Atlanta Falcons
Homefield: Georgia Dome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @KC 40-24 10 @NO 27-31
2 DEN 27-21 11 ARI 23-19
3 @SD 27-3 12 @TB 24-23
4 CAR 30-28 13 NO -----
5 @WAS 24-17 14 @CAR -----
6 OAK 23-20 15 NYG -----
7 BYE ----- 16 @DET -----
8 @PHI 30-17 17 TB -----
9 DAL 19-13 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
ATL vs NO Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Ryan 330,3
QB Matt Schaub 220,2
WR Julio Jones 4-80,1
WR Mohamed Sanu
TE Logan Paulsen 5-50,1

Pregame Notes: The Falcons currently have a two game lead over the entire NFC and may end up throwing the week 17 finale against the Buccaneers if it doesn't matter. The Giants are the toughest remaining opponent but the Falcons could certainly run the board. They are barely beating teams and seven victories came with less than a touchdown lead. But playing well enough to win every week is the mark of a great team and they're generating nice fantasy points even without blowout wins.

Matt Ryan has been much less productive scoring in the last month where he only managed to throw for one touchdown in Tampa Bay last week and none against the visiting Cowboys and Buccaneers recently. But sandwiched between those two games was the best of the season - 411 yards and three touchdowns against the Saints. Ryan may not be scoring as much but he is on a four game streak of 300+ yard games.

Jacquizz Rodgers is getting more playing time in recent weeks and even ran in a score in Tampa Bay. He only posted 29 rushing yards in New Orleans and added four catches for 33 yards in that game. Michael Turner is running like someone tied a blocking sled to him. His worst game of the year was in New Orleans when he only gained 15 yards on 13 runs and just last week it was only 17 yards on 13 carries in Tampa Bay though he scored in that matchup. The rushing effort should have at least some better success in a home game this week assuming the Saints do not yet again surprise the Falcons with a big lead.

Tony Gonzalez has really slowed down. Over the last six weeks, he's only managed to score in one game or gain moire than 62 yards. He's been stuck mostly at around 30 yards per week. The exception of course was when he caught 11 passes for 122 yards and two touchdowns in New Orleans for his best game of the year.

No doubt this turns into a lot of passing and in the last meeting, Julio Jones gained 75 yards on four catches while Roddy White ended with 114 yards on seven receptions Jones proved he was plenty healthy last week when he gained 147 yards and White has been outstanding in every home game this year.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points ATL 6 16 8 4 3 19
Preventing Fantasy Points NO 32 31 30 25 24 11

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Matt Ryan, ATL @TB 0000030030 ***
Ryan dropped the hammer on this defense in Week 6, going for 354 yards and three TD passes without an interception. He has been good for at least 23.9 points in each of his last three games but has failed to return to that 30-point barrier in all but one game since the last time he faced Tampa Bay. Nevertheless, he's a strong play in any format.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Brian Hill, ATL @TB 500000000 *
Hill ripped off 115 yards in Week 16 and ran only eight times. He was targeted once without a reception. The Falcons are not a successful rushing offense, at least in any sense of consistency, and Tampa is so bad vs. both RBs and WRs, it comes down to how Atlanta chooses to attack. Look for safer plays, but he could be used in DFS.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Julio Jones, ATL @TB 0081101000 ***
Jones has mustered double figures in PPR scoring in all but one game this year, and he has scored four times in the past three games. Tampa Bay afforded him 143 yards on 10 grabs in the first meeting, and the veteran should be healthier after being a game-time call last week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL @TB 004701000 ***
The rookie scored his first touchdown in five weeks against the Panthers in Week 16 and has nine on the year. The volume hasn't been there since Week 12, so he isn't much of a factor without scoring. The Buccaneers have been exceptionally generous to the position in 2018, yielding 20 TDs to receivers -- only San Fran and Oakland have been worse. Translation: There is upside for a score, but expecting it vs. hoping for it is the difference. Ridley is a flex gamble in any format.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Austin Hooper, ATL @TB 005601000 ***
The Week 6 meeting went like this: 10 targets, nine catches, 71 yards, one TD. Not too shabby. In fact, it was his best day of the year in either primary scoring format. The Buccaneers were abused by TEs all season, and gamers should feel confident playing Hooper even though he has been extremely quiet of late.

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

a d v e r t i s e m e n t