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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: NYG 34, WAS 27 (LINE: NYG by 2.5)

Players to Watch: David Wilson

This is a replay of week seven when the Giants won 27-23. The Giants have a two game lead over the Redskins and Cowboys in the NFC East. The Redskins come off two wins over the Cowboys and Eagles and could make a real statement with a win in this game. This game shows how far the Redskins offense has really come. And how much the defense has not.

New York Giants
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL 17-24 10 @CIN 13-31
2 TB 41-34 11 BYE -----
3 @CAR 36-7 12 GB 38-10
4 @PHI 17-19 13 @WAS -----
5 CLE 41-27 14 NO -----
6 @SF 26-3 15 @ATL -----
7 WAS 27-23 16 @BAL -----
8 @DAL 29-24 17 PHI -----
9 PIT 20-24 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYG @ WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Eli Manning 300,3
RB Jonathan Stewart

Pregame Notes: What a difference some rest makes. The Giants were on a two game losing streak with Eli Manning throwing ducks and not scoring. Take their bye and come back and voila! everything is well. Other than Andre Brown of course who was lost for the season with a broken leg. The first game against the Redskins was right at the start of the offensive struggles for the Giants. This week we get to see if everything really is all better or not.

The biggest change is how the Giants will deal with the loss of Brown who scored eight touchdowns in his role as the "thunder" of the backfield. David Wilson is next on the depth chart and certainly should see some increase but he's been mostly a special teamer and is not nearly as big as Brown. Wilson is a decent replace for Bradshaw perhaps, but the role that the 6-0, 227 lb. Brown filled is not what the 5-10, 202 lb Wilson is going to do.

The Giants just signed Ryan Torain who should figure in at some point. With Bradshaw less than Mr. Durability, the depth chart for running backs are more important here than most teams. Brown scored in all but one game that he played and would receive up to a dozen carries in some games. He scored in the previous game with the Redskins but only gained 17 yards on five carries. Bradshaw also scored once and gained 43 yards on 12 runs and added 22 yards on four receptions.

Martellus Bennett had his best game of the year when he gained 79 yards on five catches against the Redskins. Hakeem Nicks was held to only 53 yards on five receptions that week while Victor Cruz ended with seven receptions for 131 yards and one score for one of his best efforts of the season.

The rushing effort should be downplayed this week since the Skins already handled them last time and Brown is out. As good as the Skins may be playing, they did just give up 441 yards and three scores to Tony Romo. Manning threw for 337 yards and one score in the first meeting.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYG 20 7 10 23 1 4
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 31 10 32 31 22 2

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Eli Manning, NYG TEN 0000024020 ***
Even though the Titans haven't been big on intercepting passes of late, the defense has held quarterbacks in check since Week 9 (all year, in fact). The position has only six TD passes in the last five games while averaging 226.1 yards (22nd). Manning will have all he can do to muster QB2 stats if Odell Beckham Jr. doesn't play, and it will be tough sledding even if OBJ dresses.

Update: Beckham has been ruled out once again.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG TEN 11017501000 ***
Tennessee is the only defense not to allow a running back to catch a touchdown pass in 2018, covering 54 receptions. This defense also has allowed only six touchdowns on the ground and just one back over 100 yards. Most of the damage has come in the last five games, though, with the position scoring four times and averaging 104.2 yards per meeting. None of those backs were Barkley in that time, but this defense was able to hold Ezekiel Elliott to just 15.2 PPR points. This projection is a touch on the optimistic side of things, but it isn't in any way unwarranted with the way Barkley has destroyed the league.

Update: He'll see more work with Odell Beckham Jr. out of action.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Russell Shepard, NYG TEN 004501000 ***
OBJ's status will dictate whether Shepard has any notable role. Even if he plays, despite a good matchup, gamers should look at other options with advancing to the championship round hanging in the balance.

Update: Beckham has been ruled out once again.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG TEN 005500000 ***
Shepard would be the de facto No. 1 for Eli Manning if Odell Beckham cannot play again. The Titans have been beatable by receivers this year and have allowed 17 TDs in 13 games, with the opponent's top receiver scoring at least 19 PPR points in four of the last five.

Update: Beckham has been ruled out once again.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Evan Engram, NYG TEN 004400000 ***
Tennessee has been the strongest defense of tight ends in 2018, and no other team has done as fine of a job of keeping the position out of the end zone -- no scores over 50 grabs this year. Engram is absolutely no better than a low-end consideration for desperate gamers.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Aldrick Rosas, NYG TEN 3333 ***
No writeup available

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NO 40-32 10 BYE -----
2 @STL 28-31 11 PHI 31-6
3 CIN 31-38 12 @DAL 38-31
4 @TB 24-22 13 NYG -----
5 ATL 17-24 14 BAL -----
6 MIN 38-26 15 @CLE -----
7 @NYG 23-27 16 @PHI -----
8 @PIT 12-27 17 DAL -----
9 CAR 13-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
WAS vs NYG Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Sanchez 250,1
RB Adrian Peterson 110,1 5-30
TE Vernon Davis 3-40

Pregame Notes: The Skins are on a two game winning streak but apparently need to remain within their division to notch a victory. The last two wins - the Eagles and Cowboys - were preceded by a loss to the visiting Panthers. These last two games had at least 31 points in each and yet the two previous did not top 13. The good news - the Skins remain in the division again this week.

Robert Griffin III was on a down turn in his stats until these last two weeks. He threw for eight touchdowns over the first nine games and that included three times failing to score at all via the pass. But the last two games saw him throw four scores in each for the same total he needed nine games to attain. Griffin passed for 311 yards in Dallas but was rarely over 200 yards in the previous five weeks. Griffin's only good game in that time was against the Giants when he threw for 258 yards and two scores. He also rushed for 89 yards on nine carries.

Alfred Morris turned in a surprising 113 yards and one score in Dallas on 24 carries. It was his first score in five games and only his fourth time to surpass 100 rushing yards. Morris has no role as a receiver and derives his entire fantasy value via the run. In week seven, he gained a season high 120 yards on 22 runs while visiting the Giants.

The wide receiver crew continues to be a mish-mash of players that cannot offer enough production or reliability to merit much fantasy consideration. Santana Moss scored in four of the last five games and totals seven touchdowns on the season but almost never gains more than 50 yards in any game. The only real development here is that Pierre Garcon finally showed up a mere 11 weeks since his only decent game and posted five receptions for 93 yards and one score on the Cowboys during Thanksgiving Day.

Back in week seven, Moss caught both touchdown passes against the Giants and yet only ended with three catches for 67 yards in his best game of the year.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 1 22 12 19 14 7
Preventing Fantasy Points NYG 27 6 29 15 12 3

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Josh Johnson, WAS @JAC 40000014002 *
Johnson looked pretty good off the bench for a guy who hadn't thrown a meaningful NFL pass in nearly seven years. The Jaguars will present a much tougher opponent and have time to prepare for him. Look just about anywhere else this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Adrian Peterson, WAS @JAC 5002100000 **
Don't be fooled by Derrick Henry's big day vs. this defense last week. Peterson's offensive line and quarterback situation should once again keep him in check. Anything is possible with the way he has defied the odds this year, and maybe he gets lucky with a long TD like Henry last week or AD just two weeks ago himself.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Thompson, WAS @JAC 2003200000 **
The majority of the work vs. the Jaguars has been on the ground, and almost half of it came from Derrick Henry last week. Jacksonville has given up only modest numbers via receptions (59), limited gains in receiving yardage (422) and terrible results in the end zone (one TD). Keep Thompson on your bench.

Update: Thompson (illness) was unable to practice Friday and is a game-time call.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jamison Crowder, WAS @JAC 003300000 ***
Crowder game to life in Week 14 but still landed only two of his seven targets. He scored and added 87 yards to his totals, marking his best fantasy outings since Week 15 last year. The Redskins will start Josh Johnson this week and face the toughest matchup in football for wideouts. No team has given up fewer touchdowns.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Vernon Davis, WAS @JAC 004300000 *
In the past five weeks, four touchdowns have been scored against Jacksonville by tight ends. Using data since Week 1, the matchup isn't quite as appealing but is still useful. Davis has a glimmer of hope and should see the majority of looks at the position after -- wait for it -- Jordan Reed is injured.

Update: Reed has been ruled out.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Dustin Hopkins, WAS @JAC 0000 *****
No writeup available

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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