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David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: PIT 6, BAL 20 (LINE: BAL by 3)

Players Updated: Ben Roethlisberger

Players to Watch: Johnathan Dwyer, Ray Rice

This is a replay of week 11 when the Ravens won 13-10 in Pittsburgh. You can be sure that no matter what, there are not going to be many points in this game. The Ravens have won the last three meetings. The Ravens already have a three game lead on the Steelers in the AFC North and are on a four game winning streak. The Steelers have lost their last two and are likely without Ben Roethlisberger again.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Homefield: Heinz Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @DEN 19-31 10 KC 16-13
2 NYJ 27-10 11 BAL 10-13
3 @OAK 31-34 12 @CLE 14-20
4 BYE ----- 13 @BAL -----
5 PHI 16-14 14 SD -----
6 @TEN 23-26 15 @DAL -----
7 @CIN 24-17 16 CIN -----
8 WAS 27-12 17 CLE -----
9 @NYG 24-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
PIT @ BAL Rush Catch Pass
QB Ben Roethlisberger
RB Stevan Ridley 80,1 2-10
WR Antonio Brown 4-50
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey 4-50

Pregame Notes: The loss of Big Ben really took the wind out of the offensive sails. The last three weeks have seen the Steelers never score more than 16 points and that included hosting the Chiefs. While some reports have Roethlisberger at "50/50", others speculate that there is no way the he will play this week and that he would be so limited and playing in such pain that he would be of little use and only open himself for further injury.

That's a problem this week since they'll face the Ravens in Baltimore with nothing more than Charlie Batch who threw three interceptions last week in Cleveland. Ends up that keeping Batch around for ten years as a third stringer maybe wasn't as prudent as it seemed just because he knows the playbook. His 199 yards last week severely degrades all the fantasy value on the team.

Jonathan Dwyer has been promoted to the top of the depth chart which means absolutely nothing on this offense that uses a committee backfield, rarely runs and doesn't do it that well when it tries. Dwyer only gained 19 yards on nine carries in Cleveland. He gained 55 yards on 12 runs against the Ravens in week 11. Rashard Mendenhall has apparently been demoted and Isaac Redman is rarely used anyway. This group only matters when at home against a really bad defense and two of the three are out injured. As a group they only rushed in four touchdowns all year.

To further compound the offensive problems, Mike Wallace is now only the co-split end along with Emmanuel Sanders. Wallace has rubbed the coaching staff the wrong way with less than stellar efforts in recent games. He only managed one catch for nine yards last week and since Big Ben left has yet to gain more than 24 yards in any game. Antonio Brown is expected back this week.

Playing in Baltimore is tough enough but the passing effort has fallen apart since Big Ben left and that drags down the rushing production as well. If any of these players manage more than moderate fantasy points this week it will be a miracle. Troy Polamalu may return this week which will at least help the defense.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PIT 15 19 20 7 13 29
Preventing Fantasy Points BAL 8 19 12 9 28 4

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ben Roethlisberger, PIT @OAK 10000033031 ***
No team has provided more touchdowns than Oakland's 28 over 12 games, and this is the top matchup to exploit for easy of touchdown throws since Week 8. Big Ben is a must-start option as the offense will run through his right arm with James Conner out of commission.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jaylen Samuels, PIT @OAK 4013200000 ***
Samuels will share touches with veteran Stevan Ridley against a mostly weak Raiders defense. This is the best matchup for yardage generation on the ground, and Oakland has given up 12 total touchdowns (nine rushing) in 2018. Samuels is a sound flex and could deliver low-end RB1 numbers in best-case scenario.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Stevan Ridley, PIT @OAK 2001100000 *
Ridley could see some of the tough-yardage situations in Week 14 with James Conner out of action. The majority of work should go to the more explosive Jaylen Samuels. No team has given up more rushing yards than Oakland in 2018.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Antonio Brown, PIT @OAK 007802000 ***
Oakland has permitted the fewest receptions and third-most touchdowns in 2018. This is one of the tougher defenses for limiting yardage to WRs, but much of it could be due to how poorly they play against running backs. No James Conner could translate to more AB. This could be an optimistic projection, though.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT @OAK 0081101000 ***
The Raiders have given up only one 20-plus-point PPR day in 2018 (Jakeem Grant, Week 3). That includes matchups with LAR, DEN, CLE, LAC (twice), SEA, IND, and KC. Start him but don't expect monster results based on the idea of how poorly Oakland has played in 2018. James Conner being out may mean more passing in general, though.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Vance McDonald, PIT @OAK 004400000 ***
No team has granted more fantasy points in PPR to tight ends over the course of 2018. McDonald has a legit shot at producing meaningful stats against a defense that has let nine catches by the position get into the end zone. Only KC has given up more yardage this year.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chris Boswell, PIT @OAK 2244 ***
No writeup available

Baltimore Ravens
Homefield: M&T Bank Stadium
Sport Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CIN 44-13 10 OAK 55-20
2 @PHI 23-24 11 @PIT 13-10
3 NE 31-30 12 @SD 16-13
4 CLE 23-16 13 PIT -----
5 @KC 9-6 14 @WAS -----
6 DAL 31-29 15 DEN -----
7 @HOU 13-43 16 NYG -----
8 BYE ----- 17 @CIN -----
9 @CLE 25-15 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
BAL vs PIT Rush Catch Pass
QB Joe Flacco 200,1
QB Robert Griffin III 50,1 250,2
WR Michael Crabtree 4-60,1
PK Justin Tucker 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: At 9-2 the Ravens currently have the #2 seed and a one game lead over the Patriots and Broncos. The remaining schedule is no cake walk but the toughest games all come at home so it is not unthinkable that they could run the table. Ray Lewis is also being talked up as potentially returning before the season ends. The offense is still little more than Ray Rice and the Ravens barely scratched out the last two wins by a field goal each. This is a good time to host the Steelers.

Not a great sign that not only has Joe Flacco struggled to throw for more than one score or over 200 yards in most games, but his worst game of the year was two weeks ago when he only passed for 164 yards and no scores in Pittsburgh. The Steelers have not allowed more than one passing score in the last seven games. At least this one goes off at home but Flacco is not going to change any trends this week.

Ray Rice only accounted for 40 yards on 20 runs in Pittsburgh but added dive catches for 53 yards. Last week in San Diego, he ran for 97 yards and added eight receptions for 67 yards as well. Bernard Pierce offers relief work but never enough for any fantasy consideration. Rice should see more carries and more success in this home version of the matchup, especially with the Steelers offense struggling.

In the previous meeting with the Steelers, the only receiver with any appreciable stats was Anquan Boldin's eight catches for 79 yards which was roughly double his normal weekly production. Torrey Smith was blanketed and only managed one catch for seven yards that week. He's been very productive in recent weeks except for this matchup.

The Steelers play very well at home but less so on the road. They have allowed six rushing touchdowns away from home along with better yardage. The passing defense remains stout - ranked #1 against quarterbacks and wide receivers. This should be the fourth straight win by the Ravens over the Steelers but once again - it's not going to contain many points.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BAL 18 11 14 18 5 5
Preventing Fantasy Points PIT 1 4 1 10 13 16

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Lamar Jackson, BAL @KC 70100015001 *
Jackson is expected to start once again and has a good matchup for volume purposes, but he remains so raw as a passer that his only means of notable contributions require substantial ground gains. Chance it if you're feeling frisky in DFS, and Jackson is an ideal QB2 play in superflex or two-starter leagues. KC ranks as the third-easiest defense to exploit in the last five weeks.

Update: Flacco is questionable and fully practiced Friday. The starter hasn't been named, but it looks like Jackson will indeed get another start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Joe Flacco, BAL @KC 0000010010 *
Flacco's status will be updated later in the week.

Update: He's questionable and fully practiced for the first time since the injury on a Friday and is a game-time decision. Lamar Jackson appears in line for another start, regardless of Flacco's health.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Gus Edwards, BAL @KC 700000000 ***
Edwards looked mortal last week with 82 yards on 21 carries. He hasn't scored since Week 11 and offers zilch in the passing game. KC has provided one of the best matchups across the board in 2018 for the position. Game flow likely will determine his ultimate worth, and Edwards could still be less than 100 percent after being questionable entering Week 13.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ty Montgomery, BAL @KC 1006400000 ***
The former Green Bay Packer is up to speed in the offense and has taken over the pass-catching duties from Buck Allen. In the past two games, Montgomery has landed eight of his 10 targets for 55 yards -- nothing special but something worthwhile for truly desperate owners. KC has been horrendous at stopping third-down types in 2018.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR John Brown, BAL @KC 003501000 *
Brown has 12 targets and two catches with Lamar Jackson at quarterback. His fantasy utility is about as risky as you'll find, and this is an optimistic projection. Play him at your own peril.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Willie Snead IV, BAL @KC 005700000 ***
Snead saw a team-high eight looks in Lamar Jackson's first game and then didn't catch a pass in the next contest. Last week, he grabbed one of his three targets for eight whole yards. Keep him out of lineups, and he's realistically a waiver body.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Michael Crabtree, BAL @KC 004500000 ***
He has 13 targets with Lamar Jackson at quarterback, 10 of which came in the last two games. Crabtree landed six of them for 57 yards and a TD in Week 12. He has limited appeal as a PPR flex choice with a decent enough matchup -- at least one that could require extra passing.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Mark Andrews, BAL @KC 004500000 ***
Andrews has a hint of appeal as a flier play for desperate owners. The Chiefs have surrendered a touchdown per game to the position in the last four weeks. With just five looks in the last three games and no scores since Week 7, the rookie is best avoided in consequential situations.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Justin Tucker, BAL @KC 3322 ***
No writeup available

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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