FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Follow Follow @DMDorey
 

Predictions Summary »  Player Rankings (Projections) »  myHuddle Projections by Team »  Projections Summary by Team »

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: PIT 6, BAL 20 (LINE: BAL by 3)

Players Updated: Ben Roethlisberger

Players to Watch: Johnathan Dwyer, Ray Rice

This is a replay of week 11 when the Ravens won 13-10 in Pittsburgh. You can be sure that no matter what, there are not going to be many points in this game. The Ravens have won the last three meetings. The Ravens already have a three game lead on the Steelers in the AFC North and are on a four game winning streak. The Steelers have lost their last two and are likely without Ben Roethlisberger again.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Homefield: Heinz Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @DEN 19-31 10 KC 16-13
2 NYJ 27-10 11 BAL 10-13
3 @OAK 31-34 12 @CLE 14-20
4 BYE ----- 13 @BAL -----
5 PHI 16-14 14 SD -----
6 @TEN 23-26 15 @DAL -----
7 @CIN 24-17 16 CIN -----
8 WAS 27-12 17 CLE -----
9 @NYG 24-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
PIT @ BAL Rush Catch Pass
QB Ben Roethlisberger
WR Antonio Brown 4-50
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey 4-50

Pregame Notes: The loss of Big Ben really took the wind out of the offensive sails. The last three weeks have seen the Steelers never score more than 16 points and that included hosting the Chiefs. While some reports have Roethlisberger at "50/50", others speculate that there is no way the he will play this week and that he would be so limited and playing in such pain that he would be of little use and only open himself for further injury.

That's a problem this week since they'll face the Ravens in Baltimore with nothing more than Charlie Batch who threw three interceptions last week in Cleveland. Ends up that keeping Batch around for ten years as a third stringer maybe wasn't as prudent as it seemed just because he knows the playbook. His 199 yards last week severely degrades all the fantasy value on the team.

Jonathan Dwyer has been promoted to the top of the depth chart which means absolutely nothing on this offense that uses a committee backfield, rarely runs and doesn't do it that well when it tries. Dwyer only gained 19 yards on nine carries in Cleveland. He gained 55 yards on 12 runs against the Ravens in week 11. Rashard Mendenhall has apparently been demoted and Isaac Redman is rarely used anyway. This group only matters when at home against a really bad defense and two of the three are out injured. As a group they only rushed in four touchdowns all year.

To further compound the offensive problems, Mike Wallace is now only the co-split end along with Emmanuel Sanders. Wallace has rubbed the coaching staff the wrong way with less than stellar efforts in recent games. He only managed one catch for nine yards last week and since Big Ben left has yet to gain more than 24 yards in any game. Antonio Brown is expected back this week.

Playing in Baltimore is tough enough but the passing effort has fallen apart since Big Ben left and that drags down the rushing production as well. If any of these players manage more than moderate fantasy points this week it will be a miracle. Troy Polamalu may return this week which will at least help the defense.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PIT 15 19 20 7 13 29
Preventing Fantasy Points BAL 8 19 12 9 28 4

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ben Roethlisberger, PIT NE 0000034041 ***
Roethlisberger went for 314-1-1 in the AFC Championship Game last year vs. the Pats. New England has surrendered the third-fewest fantasy points per contest to quarterbacks in the last five weeks. In that span, QBs have averaged 210.2 yards (26th) and a scoring strike every 18.2 connections (24th). The Patriots have allowed the fewest points per play and lowest yards-per-completion average in this window.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Le'Veon Bell, PIT NE 5009701000 ***
None of the last 109 carries against New England found the end zone, spanning five games. The Pats have permitted the 10th-most rushing yards and a moderate amount of receiving work (18th in catches, 16th in yardage) on a weekly basis. He was a non-factor in the conference championship last year after producing 24.9 PPR points in the Week 7 meeting (10 catches).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Antonio Brown, PIT NE 00101302000 ***
In two games last year vs. the Patriots, Brown hauled in 14 balls without scoring. He was good for 33.6 a combined fantasy points in PPR. New England has allowed receivers a TD per game, on average, with two of them coming via Jarvis Landry last week. The yardage allowed (138.8) is the ninth-lowest figure over the past five weeks, coming on the eighth-most receptions per game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT NE 005701000 ***
The rookie draws what had been a daunting matchup before last week. Since the Pats generally play poorly in Miami, where three of the five TDs over the last five weeks were scored, this projection could be on the optimistic side. Play him with the willingness to accept accompanying downside.

Update: Smith-Schuster is questionable after being limited with a hammy Thursday and Friday. He's a gametime decision.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Martavis Bryant, PIT NE 003300000 ***
Bryant didn't play in the AFC championship last year. The Pats have been quite strong against receivers until last week. The Dolphins accounted for three of the five TDs allowed in the past five games. Bryant is merely a flier for brave owners.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jesse James, PIT NE 003300000 ***
Not a single one of the 19 catches by tight ends over the last five contests made it into the end zone. New England is the third-worst matchup of the week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chris Boswell, PIT NE 2244 ***
New England sports the fourth-hardest matchup for registering fantasy points after giving up the second-fewest combined kicking chances a week.

Baltimore Ravens
Homefield: M&T Bank Stadium
Sport Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CIN 44-13 10 OAK 55-20
2 @PHI 23-24 11 @PIT 13-10
3 NE 31-30 12 @SD 16-13
4 CLE 23-16 13 PIT -----
5 @KC 9-6 14 @WAS -----
6 DAL 31-29 15 DEN -----
7 @HOU 13-43 16 NYG -----
8 BYE ----- 17 @CIN -----
9 @CLE 25-15 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
BAL vs PIT Rush Catch Pass
QB Joe Flacco 200,1
RB Danny Woodhead 10 3-20
WR Jeremy Maclin 6-60
WR Mike Wallace 3-40
TE Benjamin Watson 4-40
PK Justin Tucker 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: At 9-2 the Ravens currently have the #2 seed and a one game lead over the Patriots and Broncos. The remaining schedule is no cake walk but the toughest games all come at home so it is not unthinkable that they could run the table. Ray Lewis is also being talked up as potentially returning before the season ends. The offense is still little more than Ray Rice and the Ravens barely scratched out the last two wins by a field goal each. This is a good time to host the Steelers.

Not a great sign that not only has Joe Flacco struggled to throw for more than one score or over 200 yards in most games, but his worst game of the year was two weeks ago when he only passed for 164 yards and no scores in Pittsburgh. The Steelers have not allowed more than one passing score in the last seven games. At least this one goes off at home but Flacco is not going to change any trends this week.

Ray Rice only accounted for 40 yards on 20 runs in Pittsburgh but added dive catches for 53 yards. Last week in San Diego, he ran for 97 yards and added eight receptions for 67 yards as well. Bernard Pierce offers relief work but never enough for any fantasy consideration. Rice should see more carries and more success in this home version of the matchup, especially with the Steelers offense struggling.

In the previous meeting with the Steelers, the only receiver with any appreciable stats was Anquan Boldin's eight catches for 79 yards which was roughly double his normal weekly production. Torrey Smith was blanketed and only managed one catch for seven yards that week. He's been very productive in recent weeks except for this matchup.

The Steelers play very well at home but less so on the road. They have allowed six rushing touchdowns away from home along with better yardage. The passing defense remains stout - ranked #1 against quarterbacks and wide receivers. This should be the fourth straight win by the Ravens over the Steelers but once again - it's not going to contain many points.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BAL 18 11 14 18 5 5
Preventing Fantasy Points PIT 1 4 1 10 13 16

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Joe Flacco, BAL @CLE 0000023010 ***
Flacco, even at his best this year, doesn't warrant fantasy consideration. The Browns have permitted two TD passes per game vs. just one total interception in the last five weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Alex Collins, BAL @CLE 9012200000 ***
Collins been a fantasy weapon over the past month of play, registering five TDs in four games. The Browns gave up 42 yards on seven carries to him in his Ravens debut. Over the past five weeks, Cleveland has given up 98.2 rushing yards (13th) and 44.4 receiving yards (13th) per game. RBs have managed five offensive touchdowns in as many games, or one every 29.6 touches (17th).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Javorius Allen, BAL @CLE 3002200000 ***
Allen could find the end zone to offset his lack of touches, though it is a risk not worth taking with playoff advancement on the line. The backfield belongs to Alex Collins at this point.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Danny Woodhead, BAL @CLE 1004300000 ***
Woodhead sees a few targets and is barely worthy of fantasy consideration at this point. The Browns have allowed reasonable figures to the position lately, giving up five catches (15th) for 44.4 yards (13th) and a TD every 12.5 snags.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Wallace, BAL @CLE 004601000 ***
Wallace caught one pass for seven yards in the Week 2 meeting. The veteran scored twice against Cleveland in one game last year. The Browns have yielded the eighth-most points in PPR and 12th-highest average in standard, giving up a TD per game in the past five. The veteran did not practice Wednesday (ankle), so check back for more clarity.

Update: Wallace will be a gametime call as questionable. The veteran didn't practice in full once this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Maclin, BAL @CLE 003400000 ***
Cleveland provides a great PPR matchup and a pretty good standard opponent. The Browns have allowed the fourth-most receptions and 12th-most yards on a weekly clip, with one TD per game coming in the last five games. Maclin posted a 4-31-1 line in the Week 2 contest.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Benjamin Watson, BAL @CLE 003301000 **
This is the ninth-best matchup for finding the end zone. Three of the past 20 receptions against Cleveland found paydirt, and Watson has outside appeal for a low-end starting lineup spot.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Justin Tucker, BAL @CLE 4422 ***
Tucker faces a Cleveland team that provides top-10 matchups for both extra points and field goal attempts on a weekly clip. This is the No. 8 matchup for exploitation.

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

a d v e r t i s e m e n t