FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: SEA 17, CHI 24 (LINE: CHI by 3)

Players Updated : Matt Forte, Michael Bush, Sidney Rice

Players to Watch: Marshawn Lynch, Michael Bush

The Seahawks won 38-14 in Chicago last season. It was late in the year when the Bears were without Jay Cutler and lost five in a row. That very nearly happened again. The 8-3 Bears are 5-1 at home so far and the 6-5 Seahawks just never play well away from home and sport a 1-5 road record.

Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 16-20 10 NYJ 28-7
2 DAL 27-7 11 BYE -----
3 GB 14-12 12 @MIA 21-24
4 @STL 13-19 13 @CHI -----
5 @CAR 16-12 14 ARI -----
6 NE 24-23 15 @BUF -----
7 @SF 6-13 16 SF -----
8 @DET 24-28 17 STL -----
9 MIN 30-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA @ CHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 30 180,1
TE Jimmy Graham 8-70,1
PK Blair Walsh 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Seahawks are playing a dangerous game. The two starting cornerbacks Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner have been suspended for four games because of violating the drug policy (Adderall) and they are appealing it. They will play this week for sure and may get it shortened. But if they don't it may end up extending to the playoffs which would be no time to be without your favorite cornerbacks. It may be a small distraction now and will have a big impact when it goes through.

Russell Wilson is on a string of two score games but his yardage is always lower than most and his worst two games of the year were on the road against good defenses (SF and STL). Wilson is always a good bet to remain below 200 yards unless the opposing secondary is below average.

Marshawn Lynch only gained 42 yards on 20 carries in Chicago last year but rushed in two touchdowns. He was held to 46 yards in Miami last week but was on a four game streak of 100+ yard games. The Bears rushing defense is very good but just allowed two rushing scores in Miami. This game is certain to be all about rushing and defense, so Lynch should at least get a decent volume of carries to work with and a chance for a score.

This will be a big challenge for Golden Tate and Sidney Rice. Charles Tillman has a chipped bone in his foot but has not been ruled out this week. He'll be a problem if he plays. Tate was on a three game scoring streak until last week in Miami. Both he and a Rice have been held to 50 yards or less for the last five weeks and really all year. The Seahawks either move via the rush or get good field position because of their defense. Wideouts factor in more as scoring plays than as possession receivers.

The Seahawks don't lose road games by much - but they almost always lose them.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 25 15 22 26 27 22
Preventing Fantasy Points CHI 3 3 7 19 8 25

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Russell Wilson, SEA LAR 30100023021 ***
In Week 5, at LA, Wilson recorded his second-worst game of the year in fantasy (15.5 points0. Over the last five games, the Rams have permitted the ninth-most yards, on average, and a TD in 18.3 completions (18th). None of the 14 carries against have scored. One intangible: Seattle hosts.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Mike Davis, SEA LAR 7004300000 ***
Davis (ribs) has 31 carries over his last two games, plus five receptions, and he is running well enough for fantasy consideration. The Rams provide the sixth-best matchup for rushing yards. One of every 29.5 carries has found the end zone since Week 9, with is the 13th-easiest rate to exploit. Davis is a high-risk gamble.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Doug Baldwin, SEA LAR 005601000 ***
Baldwin was a non-factor in the Week 5 meeting. He hauled in four of eight targets for 37 yards. The Rams have yielded big possession numbers to the position lately. Since Week 9, wideouts have averaged 14.4 receptions (5th), 171.8 yards (6th) but a TD every 18 catches (25th).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Paul Richardson, SEA LAR 003600000 ***
Los Angeles travels north for the rematch. Richardson was nothing to write home about in that game. The Rams have done well against wideouts when it comes to limiting touchdowns (8th-hardest), but this is a good matchup for finding receptions and yardage totals. Both stats are in the top six since Week 9.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA LAR 002300000 ***
Lockett has virtually no impact in the first game. The Rams have given up quality figures for yardage (6th) and receptions (5th) that work in his favor, but this is also the eighth-best defense at keeping receivers from scoring TDs since Week 9.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jimmy Graham, SEA LAR 004301000 ***
Provided you survived last week's miserable performance, Graham returns with a top-10 opponent -- one he exploited for north of 15 fantasy points in the earlier meeting this year. Expect a decent rebound showing from the veteran.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Blair Walsh, SEA LAR 2222 ***
Only 7 of the 11 field goals faced since Week 9 have made their mark against the Rams. Eleven of the 12 PATs went through the posts.

Chicago Bears
Homefield: Soldier Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 IND 41-21 10 HOU 6-13
2 @GB 10-23 11 @SF 7-32
3 STL 23-6 12 MIN 28-10
4 @DAL 34-18 13 SEA -----
5 @JAC 41-3 14 @MIN -----
6 BYE ----- 15 GB -----
7 DET 13-7 16 @ARI -----
8 CAR 23-22 17 @DET -----
9 @TEN 51-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CHI vs SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Sanchez 250,1
WR Kendall Wright 2-30
PK Mike Nugent 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Bears got Jay Cutler back which is a good thing since the looming schedule is tough - Seattle this week and then three road games plus hosting the Packers. Unfortunately they may be without Matt Forte who twisted his ankle last week. Coupled with a pretty bad offensive line, it is a good thing that the defense alone is enough to win most games.

Jay Cutler only missed one game and though he only threw for 188 yards and a score last week, the game was well in hand and there was no need to pass. He completed his obligatory 12 passes to Brandon Marshall and called it a day. Cutler will need to not expose himself to the pass rush much this week with the Seahawks defense showing up. The Bears dodged a bullet with Cutler missing just one week.

Forte has not been ruled out and practices will clear up his status later in the week. Michael Bush is a capable replacement though not the receiver that Forte is or can he make the rushing gains. But he is a power runner with a nose for the end zone and should matchup well against the Seahawk. Armando Allen may help out a bit more but Bush will be taking pretty much the full load this week.

Alshon Jeffrey is back out with a knee scope and may not play the rest of the regular season. That makes the passing game once again all about Brandon Marshall and his obscene amount of targets every week. He's never had fewer than ten passes in a home game and the strangest part is that his best games often come against very good defenses. He has not scored in a home game since week seven though.

This will be all about defense with Forte ailing and Marshall standing alone as a receiver. Playing at home is a major advantage since the Seahawks are never as good away from Seattle. This stands a good chance of being the lowest scoring game of the week though I like a defensive score in this one.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CHI 28 14 18 31 9 1
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 4 12 2 7 5 10

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Mitchell Trubisky, CHI @DET 30000019011 ***
Despite Detroit's recent woes against quarterbacks (worst defense of the position since Week 9), Trubisky has no place in a starting lineup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jordan Howard, CHI @DET 9011100000 ***
Howard went for 125 yards on just 15 carries, including a TD, in the Week 11 game. The Lions have been lousy against the position most of the year. On the ground, since Week 9, RBs have averaged 125.2 yards (4th) and a TD every 19 carries (4th).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Tarik Cohen, CHI @DET 3002100000 ***
Cohen's second-best fantasy day of his career came in the Week 11 game vs. the Lions. Since then, he has eight total catches. Play at your own risk, but Detroit has done a fine job of limiting receiving backs other than him.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kendall Wright, CHI @DET 004500000 ***
Wright erupted for 10 catches last week, which was one fewer than his previous four games combined -- including a two-catch, 25-yard day against Detroit in Week 11. The Lions have been masterful against limiting scoring by wideouts of late. The veteran was limited Wednesday.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dontrelle Inman, CHI @DET 003400000 ***
One ball in the last 60 against the Lions has scored a touchdown in the hands of a wide receiver. Inman carries far more risk than reward.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Adam Shaheen, CHI @DET 003401000 ***
Shaheen scored last time against the Lions and faces the best matchup of the week for his position. Tight ends have gouged Detroit for 5.0 catches, 60.2 yards and a TD per game over the last five contests.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mike Nugent, CHI @DET 1122 ***
This is the second-best matchup for extra point attempts, but only 1.6 field goal tries (22nd) per game have come against the Lions. This matchup rates in the lower half of the league.

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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