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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: SEA 17, CHI 24 (LINE: CHI by 3)

Players Updated : Matt Forte, Michael Bush, Sidney Rice

Players to Watch: Marshawn Lynch, Michael Bush

The Seahawks won 38-14 in Chicago last season. It was late in the year when the Bears were without Jay Cutler and lost five in a row. That very nearly happened again. The 8-3 Bears are 5-1 at home so far and the 6-5 Seahawks just never play well away from home and sport a 1-5 road record.

Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 16-20 10 NYJ 28-7
2 DAL 27-7 11 BYE -----
3 GB 14-12 12 @MIA 21-24
4 @STL 13-19 13 @CHI -----
5 @CAR 16-12 14 ARI -----
6 NE 24-23 15 @BUF -----
7 @SF 6-13 16 SF -----
8 @DET 24-28 17 STL -----
9 MIN 30-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA @ CHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 30 180,1
TE Jimmy Graham 8-70,1
PK Blair Walsh 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Seahawks are playing a dangerous game. The two starting cornerbacks Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner have been suspended for four games because of violating the drug policy (Adderall) and they are appealing it. They will play this week for sure and may get it shortened. But if they don't it may end up extending to the playoffs which would be no time to be without your favorite cornerbacks. It may be a small distraction now and will have a big impact when it goes through.

Russell Wilson is on a string of two score games but his yardage is always lower than most and his worst two games of the year were on the road against good defenses (SF and STL). Wilson is always a good bet to remain below 200 yards unless the opposing secondary is below average.

Marshawn Lynch only gained 42 yards on 20 carries in Chicago last year but rushed in two touchdowns. He was held to 46 yards in Miami last week but was on a four game streak of 100+ yard games. The Bears rushing defense is very good but just allowed two rushing scores in Miami. This game is certain to be all about rushing and defense, so Lynch should at least get a decent volume of carries to work with and a chance for a score.

This will be a big challenge for Golden Tate and Sidney Rice. Charles Tillman has a chipped bone in his foot but has not been ruled out this week. He'll be a problem if he plays. Tate was on a three game scoring streak until last week in Miami. Both he and a Rice have been held to 50 yards or less for the last five weeks and really all year. The Seahawks either move via the rush or get good field position because of their defense. Wideouts factor in more as scoring plays than as possession receivers.

The Seahawks don't lose road games by much - but they almost always lose them.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 25 15 22 26 27 22
Preventing Fantasy Points CHI 3 3 7 19 8 25

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Russell Wilson, SEA @NYG 30000025021 ***
New York is a positive-trending opponent for Wilson, who is returning from a bye week. The Giants have allowed a TD every 11 completions, which is the sixth-worst defense for scoring frequency. The 256.4 yards allowed per contest rates 12th.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB C.J. Prosise, SEA @NYG 1004401000 *
Prosise faces PPR's No. 17 defense, with the bright spot being two of the last 21 receptions have found their way into the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Thomas Rawls, SEA @NYG 3002200000 ***
This is the 10th-best matchup for exploitation of ground gains, and that is about where the fun ends. Overall, 16 teams offer better matchups, and one in 35.3 combined touches have visited the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Eddie Lacy, SEA @NYG 400000000 ***
Despite being a palatable matchup against New York, Lacy has no place in a fantasy lineup in conventional settings.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Paul Richardson, SEA @NYG 003500000 ***
The Giants remain stout versus wideouts. This group has surrendered only two scores in the last five games and the ninth-fewest fantasy points, on average.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA @NYG 003400000 ***
Lockett doesn't contribute enough to warrant a fantasy play, especially against a strong pass defense like this one. Only two times has a receiver scored in the last 58 receptions allowed by New York.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Doug Baldwin, SEA @NYG 002300000 ***
Baldwin's down season may continue versus the ninth-best defense of his position. New York has yielded a mere two TDs in the last 58 receptions faced, and Baldwin is likely to see Janoris Jenkins much of the game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jimmy Graham, SEA @NYG 008901000 ***
In the last five games, the Giants have been hammered by tight ends. The position has averaged 6.2 catches (5th) for 74.6 yards (4th) and a score every 5.2 grabs (3rd). No team has surrendered more fantasy points in either scoring system.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Blair Walsh, SEA @NYG 2211 ***
The Giants have given up a high number of field goal kicks (13) but only eight actual field goals. Walsh faces the No. 9 opponent at limiting his success.

Chicago Bears
Homefield: Soldier Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 IND 41-21 10 HOU 6-13
2 @GB 10-23 11 @SF 7-32
3 STL 23-6 12 MIN 28-10
4 @DAL 34-18 13 SEA -----
5 @JAC 41-3 14 @MIN -----
6 BYE ----- 15 GB -----
7 DET 13-7 16 @ARI -----
8 CAR 23-22 17 @DET -----
9 @TEN 51-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CHI vs SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Sanchez 250,1
WR Kendall Wright 2-30
PK Connor Barth 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Bears got Jay Cutler back which is a good thing since the looming schedule is tough - Seattle this week and then three road games plus hosting the Packers. Unfortunately they may be without Matt Forte who twisted his ankle last week. Coupled with a pretty bad offensive line, it is a good thing that the defense alone is enough to win most games.

Jay Cutler only missed one game and though he only threw for 188 yards and a score last week, the game was well in hand and there was no need to pass. He completed his obligatory 12 passes to Brandon Marshall and called it a day. Cutler will need to not expose himself to the pass rush much this week with the Seahawks defense showing up. The Bears dodged a bullet with Cutler missing just one week.

Forte has not been ruled out and practices will clear up his status later in the week. Michael Bush is a capable replacement though not the receiver that Forte is or can he make the rushing gains. But he is a power runner with a nose for the end zone and should matchup well against the Seahawk. Armando Allen may help out a bit more but Bush will be taking pretty much the full load this week.

Alshon Jeffrey is back out with a knee scope and may not play the rest of the regular season. That makes the passing game once again all about Brandon Marshall and his obscene amount of targets every week. He's never had fewer than ten passes in a home game and the strangest part is that his best games often come against very good defenses. He has not scored in a home game since week seven though.

This will be all about defense with Forte ailing and Marshall standing alone as a receiver. Playing at home is a major advantage since the Seahawks are never as good away from Seattle. This stands a good chance of being the lowest scoring game of the week though I like a defensive score in this one.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CHI 28 14 18 31 9 1
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 4 12 2 7 5 10

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Mitchell Trubisky, CHI CAR 30000015011 ***
Despite Trubisky's flashes of optimism, he will go through some growing pains and isn't a fantasy-worthy commodity at this time.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jordan Howard, CHI CAR 8011100000 ***
Howard has an interesting matchup with Carolina. This defense has granted TDs with the eighth-highest frequency (one per 31 totes) but the fourth-fewest rushing yards and little else.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Tarik Cohen, CHI CAR 2002100000 ***
Cohen threw a TD pass last week but has been less than inspiring for fantasy purposes in recent weeks. Against Carolina, running backs have allowed a lot of catches (6.6/game) but no touchdowns through the air. In PPR, this is the ninth-hardest opponent.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kendall Wright, CHI CAR 004400000 ***
The Panthers have been exploited to the tune of giving up the 11th-most points in non-PPR, 12th-most in PPR, 12th-most receptions and 15th-most yards per game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Miller, CHI CAR 004401000 *
Tight ends have averaged only three catches per outing (31st) vs. Carolina, yet the position has scored once every 3.8 grabs (2nd). The matchup is garbage without finding the end zone.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Connor Barth, CHI CAR 2222 ***
This is a squarely neutral matchup for kickers, with the position averaging a pair of FGAs and 2.4 XPAs. This is a positive-leaning rating for Barth.

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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