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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: TB 20, DEN 27 (LINE: DEN by 8)

Players to Watch: Vincent Jackson

The Buccaneers slip to 6-5 after their loss in Atlanta but are 3-2 on the road. The 8-3 Broncos are 4-1 at home and on a six game winning streak. This should be an interesting game, but mostly because Manning goes against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CAR 16-10 10 SD 34-24
2 @NYG 34-41 11 @CAR 27-21
3 @DAL 10-16 12 ATL 23-24
4 WAS 22-24 13 @DEN -----
5 BYE ----- 14 PHI -----
6 KC 38-10 15 @NO -----
7 NO 28-35 16 STL -----
8 @MIN 36-17 17 @ATL -----
9 @OAK 42-32 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TB @ DEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 230,2
RB Jacquizz Rodgers 30 4-30

Pregame Notes: After six straight games with multiple scores, it was a sad surprise to Josh Freeman owners to see him only gain 256 yards against the Falcons last week with no touchdowns. The Falcons have been rejuvenated by both the rushing of Doug Martin and the passing of Freeman. The Buccaneers did go through an incredibly kind stretch of games starting in week four and the passing stats reflected it. Fortunately there is only this week and the week 17 finale in Atlanta that should be a problem. Then again, winning right now is all about making your playoffs.

Doug Martin was held to only 50 yards on 21 runs by the Falcons but he still ended up with two touchdowns which gives him ten touchdowns on the season. One oddity with Martin is that he has only three games with over 100 yards. In those three, he scored seven of his touchdowns. And all three were road games. He's used heavily as a runner and a receiver which ensures solid production each week.

The Bucs are using the tight ends more in recent weeks and Dallas Clark not only scored in weeks 10 and 11, but his best two yardage games were the last two that he played - 7-58 in Carolina and 4-65 versus the Falcons.

The wideouts have been cranking out the big games at least for Vincent Jackson who topped 90 yards in each of the last two games despite playing good secondaries. Mike Williams really tailed off in the last two weeks but has been solid with 60+ yard games for most of the year. Williams would match on Champ Bailey but chances are they'll stick him on Vincent Jackson as much as they can since he's the one that does the most damage.

This is a really good test for the Buccaneers and another very good defense to face. There is no big weakness to exploit in Denver and since there is a distinct chance that Manning has fun against the Bucs poor secondary, this game will move to the air for the Bucs sooner than later.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 14 5 9 24 7 14
Preventing Fantasy Points DEN 12 8 8 30 4 15

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jameis Winston, TB ATL 30000031022 ***
His biggest fantasy day as a pro against the Falcons in Week 6 when Winston threw for 395 yards and four touchdowns. The Atlanta defense remains the worst against quarterbacks in the season-long view, and Winston has viability in any format this Sunday.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Peyton Barber, TB ATL 5012200000 ***
In Week 6, Barber ran for 82 yards and added 24 through the air, along with a touchdown. He has scored four times in the last six games and offers a decent amount of potential for a strong game given Atlanta's overall defensive woes. Chance it if you're in the mood to gamble a little on a touchdown.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Evans, TB ATL 006901000 ***
Atlanta held Evans in check in the Week 6 meeting, when he posted just 9.8 points in PPR. He scored in one of the two games last year and was good for double figures in PPR in both games. Even if he has a down game, volume alone makes Evans a worthwhile play with a great matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Adam Humphries, TB ATL 006800000 **
He posted a modest 3-82-0 line in the Week 6 game and is coming off of a 10-79-0 showing. Humphries has enough target volume to matter if he doesn't score, which hasn't happened in three straight games. He has a hint of upside in this one due to the matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Chris Godwin, TB ATL 004600000 ***
Godwin scored in the Week 6 meeting and has just one TD since. He was good for 17.6 points in PPR but has been pretty well a non-factor in all but one game without a TD. Atlanta has been abused by WRs in 2018, so there is hope, but the risk is real, too.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Cameron Brate, TB ATL 003301000 ***
Brate has only 28 grabs but six TDs on the year and is just that -- a flier for a cheap TD. He didn't have much of a role in the first Atlanta game. All he needed was one target to find the end zone. Flip a coin.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cairo Santos, TB ATL 1133 ***
No writeup available

Denver Broncos
Homefield: Invesco Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 PIT 31-19 10 @CAR 36-14
2 @ATL 21-27 11 SD 30-23
3 HOU 25-31 12 @KC 17-9
4 OAK 37-6 13 TB -----
5 @NE 21-31 14 @OAK -----
6 @SD 35-24 15 @BAL -----
7 BYE ----- 16 CLE -----
8 NO 34-14 17 KC -----
9 @CIN 31-23 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Emmanuel Sanders 4-60

Pregame Notes: The Broncos already have a four game lead in the AFC West so that's in the bag. They still trail the Ravens by a game to get the coveted first round bye so that game in Baltimore in week 15 may be for a week off in January. There is no doubt that the Broncos will be heavily favored in all other games. With any luck, Denver wins in week 15 and then has to play it all out to maintain their #2 seed.

Peyton Manning is back at home this week and facing probably the weakest secondary so far this year. That's a good thing for a quarterback who has passed for more than 270 yards in each of the last nine games and almost always posts three passing scores when at home. This is going to be a nice time to own Manning... sort of like the rest of the year.

The only change on the Broncos has been replacing Willis McGahee. While Ronnie Hillman seemed a perfectly reasonable replacement since he was the #2 back, the went "another direction". Not only did they start Knowshon Moreno against the Chiefs, he was given 20 carries to gain 85 yards while Hillman was limited to just three runs for nine yards. Hill even was not thrown a pass for just the second time all year. Moreno sat in the shadows for the last ten weeks as a game day inactive but he's back to being a starting tailback. It's like the ghost of Shanahan still lives in Denver.

This week is even more of a must-start for Demaryius Thomas who Manning recently said needs the ball more. And for Eric Decker. In a pinch? Even Brandon Stokley may end up with more than his usual 50 yards. Thomas has six scores on the year including in both the most recent games. Thomas really shines when a bad secondary shows up and he should be a lock for a nice game that could be a monster. Decker should end up with a score as well though his possession role doesn't often add up to many yards.

The Buccaneers offense is good enough to post points and not allow Denver to feel comfortable without a pretty big lead. This is one of those dream fantasy matchups for the passing effort.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DEN 7 17 2 6 15 3
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 29 18 31 21 6 6

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Case Keenum, DEN LAC 0000022011 ***
Keenum was especially underwhelming in Week 16 with a line of 202-2-2, and it actually was his best fantasy day in nearly two months. There is nothing to like about him, and he wasn't even capable of throwing a TD pass vs. the Chargers in Week 11.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Royce Freeman, DEN LAC 701000000 ***
The season-ending wrist injury for Phillip Lindsay will make Freeman the primary ball carrier this week. The matchup is somewhat favorable but mostly toward PPR backs. He has flex appeal with the hopes of finding the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Devontae Booker, DEN LAC 2003300000 ***
Booker has a minute level of appeal for PPR purposes but shouldn't be in any lineups, even with an increased role now that Phillip Lindsay is done. The Chargers are a neutral matchup that leans positive, especially in PPR formats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN LAC 005701000 ***
Sutton was held to only three catches on six looks in the Week 11 trip to LA, but he was able to muster 78 yards out of those snags. He scored last week and has two TDs in his last four appearances. The rookie has yet to break 85 yards in any game and is borderline useless without a touchdown. The Chargers have seeding at stake and will play a normal game. Consider this an optimistic projection due to the TD.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DaeSean Hamilton, DEN LAC 006500000 ***
The rookie has scored twice in the last three games after being thrust into action following the loss of Emmanuel Sanders. Hamilton has caught at least six balls in each of those games but has failed to top 50 yards in any contest this year. He has WR3 or flex utility in PPR formats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tim Patrick, DEN LAC 003400000 ***
Patrick's targets, receptions and yardage have all decreased each of the past two games after a season-high 10 targets, seven grabs and 85 yards in Week 14. He's a fringe consideration in expansive PPR situations.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Brandon McManus, DEN LAC 1122 ***
No writeup available

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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