FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Follow Follow @DMDorey
 

Predictions Summary »  Player Rankings (Projections) »  myHuddle Projections by Team »  Projections Summary by Team »

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: TB 20, DEN 27 (LINE: DEN by 8)

Players to Watch: Vincent Jackson

The Buccaneers slip to 6-5 after their loss in Atlanta but are 3-2 on the road. The 8-3 Broncos are 4-1 at home and on a six game winning streak. This should be an interesting game, but mostly because Manning goes against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CAR 16-10 10 SD 34-24
2 @NYG 34-41 11 @CAR 27-21
3 @DAL 10-16 12 ATL 23-24
4 WAS 22-24 13 @DEN -----
5 BYE ----- 14 PHI -----
6 KC 38-10 15 @NO -----
7 NO 28-35 16 STL -----
8 @MIN 36-17 17 @ATL -----
9 @OAK 42-32 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TB @ DEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 230,2
RB Jacquizz Rodgers 30 4-30

Pregame Notes: After six straight games with multiple scores, it was a sad surprise to Josh Freeman owners to see him only gain 256 yards against the Falcons last week with no touchdowns. The Falcons have been rejuvenated by both the rushing of Doug Martin and the passing of Freeman. The Buccaneers did go through an incredibly kind stretch of games starting in week four and the passing stats reflected it. Fortunately there is only this week and the week 17 finale in Atlanta that should be a problem. Then again, winning right now is all about making your playoffs.

Doug Martin was held to only 50 yards on 21 runs by the Falcons but he still ended up with two touchdowns which gives him ten touchdowns on the season. One oddity with Martin is that he has only three games with over 100 yards. In those three, he scored seven of his touchdowns. And all three were road games. He's used heavily as a runner and a receiver which ensures solid production each week.

The Bucs are using the tight ends more in recent weeks and Dallas Clark not only scored in weeks 10 and 11, but his best two yardage games were the last two that he played - 7-58 in Carolina and 4-65 versus the Falcons.

The wideouts have been cranking out the big games at least for Vincent Jackson who topped 90 yards in each of the last two games despite playing good secondaries. Mike Williams really tailed off in the last two weeks but has been solid with 60+ yard games for most of the year. Williams would match on Champ Bailey but chances are they'll stick him on Vincent Jackson as much as they can since he's the one that does the most damage.

This is a really good test for the Buccaneers and another very good defense to face. There is no big weakness to exploit in Denver and since there is a distinct chance that Manning has fun against the Bucs poor secondary, this game will move to the air for the Bucs sooner than later.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 14 5 9 24 7 14
Preventing Fantasy Points DEN 12 8 8 30 4 15

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jameis Winston, TB CLE 20000037030 ***
Winston reasserted himself as the starter in Week 6, albeit against Atlanta. The Browns should be a stiffer test for the young quarterback. In the last five games, Cleveland has permitted just eight TDs, or one every 14.9 completions. The 272.4 yards allowed rates 17th, and only eight teams have been stronger against the position. At least this one is a home game for the Bucs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Peyton Barber, TB CLE 10012200000 ***
Barber should string together consecutive games of relevance. This projection could be a touch on the optimistic side, but Cleveland has given up the fourth-most rushing yards and ninth-most fantasy points in both main systems on a weekly basis. He's risky, but the matchup is on his side.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ronald Jones II, TB CLE 300000000 ***
Jones saw his workload decrease from 12 utilizations in Week 4 to just four in the Week 6 contest. Peyton Barber is clearly the better option, and Jones is barely rosterable.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Evans, TB CLE 0081101000 ***
Evans' numbers haven't exactly been pretty with Jameis Winston under center. He's an obvious "do not bench" player and has a quality matchup. The Browns have given up 13.8 receptions (13th), 184.6 yards (12th) and a TD every 11.5 snares (14th). Evans should get on track this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Chris Godwin, TB CLE 004501000 ***
Godwin has proven to be no worse than a flex gamble each with given his propensity to find the end zone. Cleveland has given up six TDs in the last five games to wideouts, allowing one every 11.5 grabs (14th). He's a reasonable bet for another score this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeSean Jackson, TB CLE 004700000 ***
The matchup is just average for downfield weapons in Jackson's mold. The Browns have given up most of the damage via receptions and yardage, but one in every 11.5 catches has found its way into the end zone, so there's hope this projection proves conservative.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE O.J. Howard, TB CLE 007901000 ***
Howard needed no more than the bye week to heal enough to play through an MCL sprain -- normally a two- to four-week injury. He found the end zone for the second time in 2018 and posted his second-best PPR total (16.2). Cleveland is a neutral opponent for TE production, and Howard is a matter of the numbers game with so many mouths to feed in this offense.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Cameron Brate, TB CLE 003300000 ***
One in 12 catches by TEs has scored vs. Cleveland since Week 1, and this is a solidly neutral matchup overall. Brate is merely a dart throw due to injuries and bye weeks. He had only one catch last week that went into the end zone, good for his third straight game with a TD.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chandler Catanzaro, TB CLE 1144 ***
No writeup available

Denver Broncos
Homefield: Invesco Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 PIT 31-19 10 @CAR 36-14
2 @ATL 21-27 11 SD 30-23
3 HOU 25-31 12 @KC 17-9
4 OAK 37-6 13 TB -----
5 @NE 21-31 14 @OAK -----
6 @SD 35-24 15 @BAL -----
7 BYE ----- 16 CLE -----
8 NO 34-14 17 KC -----
9 @CIN 31-23 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Emmanuel Sanders 4-60
WR Demaryius Thomas 5-110,1

Pregame Notes: The Broncos already have a four game lead in the AFC West so that's in the bag. They still trail the Ravens by a game to get the coveted first round bye so that game in Baltimore in week 15 may be for a week off in January. There is no doubt that the Broncos will be heavily favored in all other games. With any luck, Denver wins in week 15 and then has to play it all out to maintain their #2 seed.

Peyton Manning is back at home this week and facing probably the weakest secondary so far this year. That's a good thing for a quarterback who has passed for more than 270 yards in each of the last nine games and almost always posts three passing scores when at home. This is going to be a nice time to own Manning... sort of like the rest of the year.

The only change on the Broncos has been replacing Willis McGahee. While Ronnie Hillman seemed a perfectly reasonable replacement since he was the #2 back, the went "another direction". Not only did they start Knowshon Moreno against the Chiefs, he was given 20 carries to gain 85 yards while Hillman was limited to just three runs for nine yards. Hill even was not thrown a pass for just the second time all year. Moreno sat in the shadows for the last ten weeks as a game day inactive but he's back to being a starting tailback. It's like the ghost of Shanahan still lives in Denver.

This week is even more of a must-start for Demaryius Thomas who Manning recently said needs the ball more. And for Eric Decker. In a pinch? Even Brandon Stokley may end up with more than his usual 50 yards. Thomas has six scores on the year including in both the most recent games. Thomas really shines when a bad secondary shows up and he should be a lock for a nice game that could be a monster. Decker should end up with a score as well though his possession role doesn't often add up to many yards.

The Buccaneers offense is good enough to post points and not allow Denver to feel comfortable without a pretty big lead. This is one of those dream fantasy matchups for the passing effort.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DEN 7 17 2 6 15 3
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 29 18 31 21 6 6

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Case Keenum, DEN @ARI 0000023011 ***
It is rarely pretty, but Keenum has put up starter-worthy numbers in three of his six games this year. A three-week slide without a TD pass from Week 2-4 shows he is still a dangerous fantasy start. Arizona is the seventh-strongest opponent of the position in Week 7 and has given up a TD every 31.3 completions, which is the toughest rate to exploit in the NFL. Keenum is on a short leash, as it would appear, so a bad quarter or half could get him yanked.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN @ARI 4005301000 ***
The matchup is fantastic, yet Lindsay has offensive line issues of concerns. The starting left guard and right tackle are both out. Arizona is the fourth-best PPR matchup and second in standard scoring, mainly fueled by allowing 174.6 total yards and touchdowns at the sixth-easiest clip.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Royce Freeman, DEN @ARI 5011100000 ***
The matchup is brilliant, and Freeman is a great risk-reward play in all formats. The Cards have given up 132.8 rushing yards (3rd) and a touchdown every 21.3 carries (6th). One big area of concern is two starters are out along the offensive line in left guard Ronald Leary and right tackle Jared Veldheer.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Demaryius Thomas, DEN @ARI 005700000 ***
DT could find the end zone, but he would be defying the odds. Only two TDs over the last five games, traversing a whopping 82 receptions (second most), have been scored against the Arizona defense. It stinks at limiting RBs but is more than respectable in stopping wideouts from racking up points.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Emmanuel Sanders, DEN @ARI 005500000 ***
Despite giving up the second-most receptions per game (16.4) to WRs in the last five games, this is the best defense at limiting receivers from finding the end zone. Just two of the last 82 grabs have gone for six points. It is a neutral matchup for yardage, so PPR types tend to fare well enough.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN @ARI 002300000 ***
Sutton's volume isn't great enough to suggest he is worthy of a start vs. a defense that has given up only two TDs on 82 catches to his position since Week 1. Overall, the rookie is no better than a bye-week flier in the deepest of formats, and that is asking for trouble.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jeff Heuerman, DEN @ARI 003200000 ***
Heuerman saw six targets last week and has a chance see a few looks again as Denver faces a rather strong Arizona pass defense. Even still, he's a high-risk, likely low-reward gamble. The Cards have granted just one tight end to the position over the last 17 catches.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Brandon McManus, DEN @ARI 1122 ***
No writeup available

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

a d v e r t i s e m e n t