FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Follow Follow @DMDorey
 

Predictions Summary »  Player Rankings (Projections) »  myHuddle Projections by Team »  Projections Summary by Team »

WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

Prediction: ATL 27, DET 20 (Line: ATL by 4)

Players to Watch: Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones

This is the Saturday game at 8:30 P.M. so you can wrap presents and watch Calvin Johnson. The 12-2 Falcons are 5-2 on the road and have actually lost two of their last three away games including beating the Buccaneers by one point for their only win. What should keep the Falcons honest this week is that they still have not clinched the #1 seed which can happen after this game. The Lions are on a six game losing streak and are only 2-4 at home. They are now nothing more than a vehicle to get Calvin Johnson the single season receiving yard record. But they have two games remaining and only 182 yards left to gain.

Atlanta Falcons
Homefield: Georgia Dome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @KC 40-24 10 @NO 27-31
2 DEN 27-21 11 ARI 23-19
3 @SD 27-3 12 @TB 24-23
4 CAR 30-28 13 NO 23-13
5 @WAS 24-17 14 @CAR 20-30
6 OAK 23-20 15 NYG 34-0
7 BYE ----- 16 @DET -----
8 @PHI 30-17 17 TB -----
9 DAL 19-13 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
ATL @ DET Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Ryan 300,2
QB Matt Schaub 260,2
WR Julio Jones 5-100,1
PK Matt Bryant 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: Just one more win - or a loss by the 49ers - should secure that #1 seed and a bye in the first round along with all-important homefield status throughout the playoffs. The Falcons crushed the Giants last week and completely reversed the thinking that maybe they weren't the cream of the NFC. The Falcons don't have to win this game but if they do they can take it easy in the final week, get a week off to rest and heal up and then play at home all the way.

The fortunate part this week is that Matt Ryan typically has the biggest games when on the road. Four of his last five road trips resulted in 340+ yards and multiple touchdowns. Just as important is that Michael Turner has been horrible on the road. He's scored in each of the last five games but his last three away games all resulted in fewer than 20 rushing yards. The score is nice but there is never any yardage attached to it. His ten touchdowns over then different games may be fine if you are in a touchdown-only league but he's fallen off the map when it comes to yardage.

Roddy White was able to play last week despite the sore knee that limited him in practices. He played well over half of the offensive snaps but only came away with two receptions for 16 yards that came on five targets. Julio Jones not only scored at home for the first time all year but did it twice and gained 74 yards on six catches with only one more target than White had. The expectation is that White will bounce back this week though he's been the under performer in road games this year.

The Lions defense has been getting worse as the season goes and allowed 32 points per opponent on average over the last six weeks. This would be a nice spot for the Falcons to give a productive effort in the passing game so they can take it easy next week but the rushing effort has never done much away from home all year.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points ATL 6 15 8 4 3 20
Preventing Fantasy Points DET 15 11 17 24 26 30

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Matt Ryan, ATL GB 0000032030 ***
Green Bay held Seattle's aerial game in check, mainly because it could apply pressure. Atlanta's front five is rock-solid. Ryan should be no worse than a low-end starter and as good as the elite choice you've come to expect.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Devonta Freeman, ATL GB 4004301000 ***
Freeman scored three times in two meetings with the Packers last year, logging six receptions along the way. Green Bay has a tall task to contend with Atlanta's passing game on the outside.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Tevin Coleman, ATL GB 3014300000 ***
After a quiet 2017 debut, Coleman is ready to exploit a matchup with a Green Bay team that will have its hands full trying to contain Julio Jones. Coleman missed the Week 8 meeting last year, but he mustered 35 yards and a score on eight touches in the NFC title game vs. GB.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Julio Jones, ATL GB 0081201000 ***
In the playoff meeting between these teams last year, Jones destroyed the Packers to the tune of 9 receptions, 180 yards and 2 TDs. He accounted for just 3-29-0 in the Week 8 game. Green Bay gave up 26 WR scores last year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mohamed Sanu, ATL GB 005601000 ***
Sanu paced the Falcons in Week 8 last year with a 9-84-1 line, and he scored on his five receptions in the playoff meeting. Green Bay gave up nine catches for 130 yards in Week 1 to Seattle receivers.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Taylor Gabriel, ATL GB 004500000 ***
Gabriel, a home run threat, went for 3-68-1 in the regular season but only 2-24-0 in the NFC playoff game. Green Bay was by far the worst WR defense last year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Austin Hooper, ATL GB 002300000 ***
Big plays drive Hooper's fantasy value on a week-to-week basis. Green Bay held Jimmy Graham in check last week, and Hooper is a shot in the dark in all formats.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Matt Bryant, ATL GB 2244 ***
Green Bay allowed nine fantasy points in the opener, and somewhere in that neighborhood would be just fine from Bryant.

Detroit Lions
Homefield: Ford Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 STL 27-23 10 @MIN 24-34
2 @SF 19-27 11 GB 20-24
3 @TEN 41-44 12 HOU 31-34
4 MIN 13-20 13 IND 33-35
5 BYE ----- 14 @GB 20-27
6 @PHI 26-23 15 @ARI 10-38
7 @CHI 7-13 16 ATL -----
8 SEA 28-24 17 CHI -----
9 @JAC 31-14 ----- ----- -----
News | Stats | Roster
DET vs ATL Rush Catch Pass
QB Matthew Stafford 270,1
WR Marvin Jones Jr. 2-20
WR Golden Tate 3-50
PK Matt Prater 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Lions are on a six game slide and while it was bad with so many close losses - getting waxed by the Cardinals was almost unimaginable. The good part is that the final two games are at home but against teams with winning records. There's a chance that the Lions could catch the Falcons on a down week following their big home win over the Giants but the Detroit defense hasn't stopped anyone.

Matt Stafford went flat last week in Arizona but he's usually much less productive in away games. At home he's typically turned in 300+ yards and multiple touchdowns. Against the Texans he threw for 441 yards and two scores and 352 yards and three touchdowns on the Seahawks so it is not so much about the quality of the defense.

Mikel Leshoure is back at home where he scored in each of the last three games there but he rarely has more than 60 rush yards and has almost no role as a receiver. He plays like Michael Turner only with fewer touchdowns and marginally better yardage.

The only thing that matters anymore is getting the record for Calvin Johnson who currently needs just 182 yards to surpass Jerry Rice's 1,848 yards set back in 1995. Breaking 2,000 remains out of reach for a wideout but Johnson has to be a lock to reach the mark with only 92 yards per game needed. He's currently on a seven game streak of 100+ yard efforts and is getting upwards of 20 targets per game. It is the only gift the Lions can give their fans and it will happen in a home game.

On the road after a blowout win at home, have to assume the Falcons defense is not going to be nearly so dominating this week. But on this team all that means is throwing 20 times to Calvin Johnson and letting Leshoure score on a short run when Megatron gets tackled inside the 5-yard line.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DET 7 13 6 6 5 27
Preventing Fantasy Points ATL 11 23 3 20 9 4

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Matthew Stafford, DET @NYG 0000025011 ***
Week 2 brings another tough matchup for Stafford. He overcame it in the second half of Week 1, but now he travels to what could be the best secondary in all of football. Stafford failed to account for a TD in Week 15's meeting in 2016.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ameer Abdullah, DET @NYG 4003200000 ***
Detroit tried pretty hard against Arizona to make Abdullah productive, but he was having none of it. Perhaps it was nerves or facing a stout run D. This week doesn't look much better. NYG rated as the four best defender of RBs last year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Theo Riddick, DET @NYG 1005400000 ***
NYG was one of three teams to prevent RBs from scoring a receiving TD in 2016. The defense allowed a healthy 83 receptions, though, so Riddick has mild appeal. He did not play in the Week 15 meeting.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marvin Jones Jr., DET @NYG 003501000 ***
Jones has really come alive in the red zone and has developed quite the relationship with his quarterback. New York was the seventh toughest defense of receivers last year when Jones caught three balls for 41 yards in Week 15 after he fell into a slump.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Golden Tate, DET @NYG 005600000 ***
Tate should draw considerable defensive attention from New York and is playable with lowered expectations. The Giants rated well against WRs last year. Tate still found room, though, to post a line of 8-122-0 in Week 15.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kenny Golladay, DET @NYG 003400000 ***
Golladay will be frustrating to play, but there is some sizzle here. The upside is that he logged seven targets and only one was in the red zone, which is surprising based on how he was used in the preseason. He may struggle to find a groove against this elite pass defense.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Eric Ebron, DET @NYG 002200000 ***
Ebron's role wildly fluctuates and appears to have taken a back seat to rookie WR Kenny Golladay. For whatever it may be worth, probably just to DFSers, the Giants allowed 59 yards and a TD on seven catches by Dallas TEs last weekend.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Matt Prater, DET @NYG 3311 ***
New York gave up 13 fantasy points to kickers last week, and its defense matches well with slowing the Lions' vertical attack.

WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

a d v e r t i s e m e n t