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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

Prediction: BUF 17, MIA 24 (Line: MIA by 4)

Players to Watch: C.J. Spiller, Reggie Bush

This is a replay of week 11 when the Bills won 19-14 in Buffalo. The 5-9 Bills are only 2-5 away from home and the 6-8 Dolphins are 4-3 at home. Chances that this game ends up boring and low scoring is exceptionally high.

Buffalo Bills
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NYJ 28-48 10 @NE 31-37
2 KC 35-17 11 MIA 19-14
3 @CLE 24-14 12 @IND 13-20
4 NE 28-52 13 JAC 34-18
5 @SF 3-45 14 STL 12-15
6 @ARI 19-16 15 SEA 17-50
7 TEN 34-35 16 @MIA -----
8 BYE ----- 17 NYJ -----
9 @HOU 9-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB LeSean McCoy 50 2-10
RB Mike Tolbert 30,1 2-10
PK Stephen Hauschka 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Bills are ending another disappointing season that started out 2-1 and just went south from there. Like 2011, Ryan Fitzpatrick began the year red hot posting three and four touchdown games. By now, he's only thrown five touchdowns over the last five games and had four different matchups produce no touchdowns. His yardage remains low in all but New England games. Fitzpatrick only passed for 168 yards and no scores in the first meeting with the Dolphins.

With Fred Jackson gone yet again, C.J. Spiller is left to shoulder almost the entire load and has been a solid fantasy play nearly every week including 103 yards and a score against the Seahawks just last Sunday. Spiller ran for 91 yards on 22 carries in the last meeting with the Fins while Fred Jackson missed that game as well. Tashard Choice is the #2 but gets almost no work and was limited to a single carry just last week. Whatever is there to get, Spiller now takes it all.

Donald Jones has been placed on the season-ending non-football/illness list because of his calf and that only serves to weaken the receiving corps which already is limited to mostly Stevie Johnson who comes off his best game of the year when he turned in eight catches for 115 yards and one score on the Seahawks last week. He only only scored three times over the last ten games and ended with six receptions for 79 yards in the last meeting with the Fins for an average sort of game.

The Bills have already struggled to score more than 20 points in games and only managed 19 in the win over the Fins. They won that game thanks to a punt return for a touchdown and four field goals and never scored in the second half.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 22 8 27 16 23 22
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 16 6 13 6 22 18

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Tyrod Taylor, BUF TB 10000023010 ***
The matchup is wonderful, although the sheer lack of weaponry is what Taylor needs to overcome. It looks like Jordan Matthews will not play, and Charles Clay is a few weeks away from a possible return. Tampa has given up the third-most fantasy points per game, giving up yardage at the second-highest clip (308.8/game).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeSean McCoy, BUF TB 8016500000 ***
Shady comes off the bye week for a meeting with the No. 15-ranked Buccaneers defense of PPR backs. This is a midrange matchup for just about every stat but receptions per game, where it ranks 12th.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordan Matthews, BUF TB 005600000 *
Matthews appears unlikely to play. He isn't catching passes with both hands yet and may be a few more weeks out.

Update: Matthews returned to practice in full Friday after two limited showings. He is likely to play but may not be 100 percent after recently having surgery on his thumb.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Zay Jones, BUF TB 002300000 ***
The matchup is awesome -- the best, in fact -- in fantasy, but Jones has done nothing to instill confidence that he can be a worthwhile play. Even after a bye. On a team without WRs. Kinda sad.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brandon Tate, BUF TB 002200000 ***
No writeup available
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Nick O'Leary, BUF TB 004501000 **
O'Leary should be one of the top options with Charles Clay out and Jordan Matthews unlikely to go. Tampa Bay has given up virtually nothing to the position, so he'll have his work cut out, but but the silver lining is this defense has granted two TDs on just 19 catches.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Stephen Hauschka, BUF TB 1122 ***
All 13 extra points have been good, with the lone missed kick coming from one of the nine field goals faced. This is a routine matchup.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 10-30 10 TEN 3-37
2 OAK 35-13 11 @BUF 14-19
3 NYJ 20-23 12 SEA 24-21
4 @ARI 21-24 13 NE 16-23
5 @CIN 17-13 14 @SF 13-27
6 STL 17-14 15 JAC 24-3
7 BYE ----- 16 BUF -----
8 @NYJ 30-9 17 @NE -----
9 @IND 20-23 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA vs BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Jay Cutler 10 220,1
QB Ryan Tannehill 10 220,2
TE Anthony Fasano 4-40,1

Pregame Notes: A win this week makes it two in a row and the Fins are happy enough with the progress made in HC Joe Philbin's first season that everything will remain on track as is. That means Ryan Tannehill remains the starter who just had a very costly and painful learning curve. The rookie only passed for ten touchdowns this year but had five over these last five weeks. He remains more of a game manager anyway and has been mostly below 200 yards. He only completed 14 of 28 for 141 yards and one score in the Buffalo meeting during week 11.

Daniel Thomas injured his knee last week but has fallen from favor anyway and was recently passed on the depth chart by Lamar Miller. There is no fantasy value in the #2 back and Miller only gained 18 yards on six carries as a high game since week three.

Reggie Bush comes off a 104 yard effort over the Jaguars and after spending much of the mid-season with very marginal stats, he's really stepped up lately. Bush has been good for 80+ total yards in three of the last four games and looks better. With 15 - 20 carries in recent games, the Fins are starting to rely on his again just in time for the season to conclude and Bush potentially end up as a free agent in March. Bush only accounted for 20 yards on ten carries in the previous game with the Bills who have become far worse against the running backs on the road this year.

Davone Bess scored on the Bills last time with his six receptions for 50 yards and it was his lone touchdown of the year. Brian Hartline was limited to only 49 yards on four receptions in that game and also has just one touchdown to his credit for the season. This game is going to be lower scoring and more about the run and defense. There's not much fantasy points to cull from this game other than Reggie Bush and his potential for moderate stats.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 28 5 30 31 25 25
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 28 28 21 17 14 25

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jay Cutler, MIA NYJ 0000019011 ***
Quarterbacks have tossed nine TDs in the last five games against this defense, getting picked off five times. The Jets have done well overall at limiting quarterbacks in fantasy, permitting only 225.6 yards.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jay Ajayi, MIA NYJ 9012100000 ***
Ajayi faces the Jets' 12th-worst defense of non-PPR backs. This group has given up 96 rushing yards, on average, and a every 39.7 carries, ranking 15th for both. Last year, he logged 22 fantasy points in the first meeting but a pathetic 5.1 in Week 15's game facing NYJ.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA NYJ 006601000 ***
DeVante Parker's status remains unsettled, which translates to more work for Landry. The Jets have given up 12 receptions per contest to receivers, which is the 15th most. In Week 3, he caught six balls for 48 yards against this defense.

Update: Parker is doubtful for Week 7.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kenny Stills, MIA NYJ 005500000 ***
Despite seeing 10 targets in Week 2 against the Jets, Stills caught just four of them for 51 yards. Stills is a risk-reward play and at least has a respectable matchup if for those willing to gamble. He is less appealing if DeVante Parker goes.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Julius Thomas, MIA NYJ 002200000 ***
New York has permitted 4.2 receptions per contest to tight ends, with one of every seven going for a TD. TEs have averaged 42.4 yards, on average.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cody Parkey, MIA NYJ 2222 ***
Kickers have missed four of eight field goals, keeping this matchup bumped down the list. On paper, it is the second worst. Thirteen of the 14 PATs were true.

WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

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