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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

Prediction: SF 20, SEA 17 (Line: SF by 1)

Players Updated: Sidney Rice

Players to Watch: Michael Crabtree. Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick

This is the late game on Sunday and should be a great one. This is probably for all the marbles in the NFC West or at the least to see if the Seahawks reach the playoffs. The 49ers already won 13-6 when they hosted this game in week seven. The 49ers also won 19-17 in Seattle last year in another year ending game. This one will be all about defense and likely low scoring unless the defenses can notch a score or two.

The forecast is for rain which will only slow this game down even more.

San Francisco 49ers
Homefield: Monster Park
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @GB 30-22 10 STL 24-24
2 DET 27-19 11 CHI 32-7
3 @MIN 13-24 12 @NO 31-21
4 @NYJ 34-0 13 @STL 13-16
5 BUF 45-3 14 MIA 27-13
6 NYG 3-26 15 @NE 41-34
7 SEA 13-6 16 @SEA -----
8 @ARI 24-3 17 ARI -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Pierre Garcon 6-80,1

Pregame Notes: The 49ers can clinch the division with this game and realistically, even if they lost they only need to beat the visiting Cardinals in week 17 to secure the title by probably a half game. But this game takes another importance - the 49ers are currently the #2 seed and while they won't catch the Falcons to reach the #1, a loss here may allow the Packers to sneak past and get the #2 seed. Provided both the Packers and 49ers win or lose this week, the season finale for each will still have meaning since it will be for second round home field and a bye.

The difference this time around from seven weeks ago is that Colin Kaepernick has taken over at quarterback. Alex Smith passed for 140 yards and one score on the visiting Seahawks in week seven. In five starts, Kaepernick has not thrown for fewer than 185 yards and has been above 200 in all others.

He comes off a season best four scores and 216 yards in New England. Defending against a running quarterback is not what the Seahawks often do. The passing game should be better too with the Seahawks already missing RCB Brandon Browner who is on suspension and LCB Richard Sherman has his hearing on Friday when he will discover if he can play or not.

Frank Gore rushed for 131 yards on 16 carries in the first meeting and caught a season best 51 yards on five receptions. He has not passed 100 rush yards since and won't likely again this week in Seattle. LaMichael James is getting eight carries per week for about 30 yards but has only one reception.

Vernon Davis just missed on a long scoring pass last week but still ended up with just one reception for 10 yards. He's lost all fantasy value in the last month and did not have any catches in the last meeting with the Seahawks. He did not even get any targets.

The rookie A.J. Jenkins is suiting up but hasn't caught a pass so far. Randy Moss scored on the Patriots as a tip of the hat to his old employer but remains outside of any fantasy value. Michael Crabtree only ended with four receptions for 31 yards in the last meeting with the Seahawks but has been golden in almost every game since and scored three times in just the last two games. He already has eight touchdowns and three 100 yard games in this breakout season.

This will be a defensive battle though missing the starting corners could be an issue if Sherman is out as well. Crabtree should already get Browner's replacement anyway and Seattle has to decide how to defend the same offense as before only with a running quarterback.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SF 11 11 23 11 8 13
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 2 7 4 1 1 5

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jimmy Garoppolo, SF JAC 0000024012 ***
Compared to how well they played most of the year, the Jags have been slightly shaky vs. QBs of late. Since Week 10, this unit still has more interceptions than TDs allowed, and the 198.7 yards allowed is the fourth-lowest figure. Quarterbacks have thrown a TD strike every 11 completions, which is the seventh-softest clip.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jerick McKinnon, SF JAC 4005300000 ***
McKinnon's best fantasy day of the season came against the Packers in Week 6; Latavius Murray wasn't a factor in that game. The Packers have provided the 12th-most rushing yards, most receptions, and second-most receiving yards per contest to RBs in the last five weeks. This is the No. 2 matchup in PPR and slides to 13th in standard.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marquise Goodwin, SF JAC 003400000 ***
Goodwin and Jimmy Garoppolo have been on the same page, and fantasy gamers have reaped the rewards. The Jaguars have given up six touchdowns in the last five games, which has been uncharacteristic of them in 2017. Three of those scores, however, came in the Week 14 game vs. Seattle. Every team is entitled to a bad game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Trent Taylor, SF JAC 003300000 ***
The rookie is a glorified position receiver and works well out of the slot. PPR gamers may catch a break of Jacksonville affords him short receptions. Counting on him is asking a bit much, though, and he's best left for the bench in championship games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kendrick Bourne, SF JAC 002300000 ***
Bourne should remain as far away from a roster as possible.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Garrett Celek, SF JAC 003300000 *
In three of his last five games, Celek has at least 63 yards and a touchdown. He also has two games that combine for 37 yards on four catches. Life has improved with Jimmy Garoppolo under center in this offense. This should be one of those down weeks as the Jaguars have been lethal vs. the position, giving up one TE score in the last five games.

Update: Celek is questionable and wasn't able to practice in full all week. He's a gameday call.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Robbie Gould, SF JAC 3311 ***
Gould is on a three-game tear and has 38 fantasy points in this span. He is enjoying his finest season of his career, but the 49ers face a Jacksonville team giving up just 1.4 field goals per outing since Week 10.

Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 16-20 10 NYJ 28-7
2 DAL 27-7 11 BYE -----
3 GB 14-12 12 @MIA 21-24
4 @STL 13-19 13 @CHI 23-17
5 @CAR 16-12 14 ARI 58-0
6 NE 24-23 15 @BUF 50-17
7 @SF 6-13 16 SF -----
8 @DET 24-28 17 STL -----
9 MIN 30-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA vs SF Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 30 210,1
WR Brandon Marshall 7-80,1
PK Sebastian Janikowski 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: Hard to argue with back-to-back games with 50 points or more. All of that doesn't so much matter this week other than the Seahawks have to be feeling plenty good about their offense lately despite racking up wins on bad teams. At 9-5, the Seahawks are currently in the lead for the #5 seed wildcard and even a loss this week doesn't necessarily mean they are out but will mean the final home game against the Rams has to be a win and then sort through the tie breakers with the other 10-6 teams.

Russell Wilson comes off his best game of the year by exponential factor when he had his standard 205 yard, one touchdown effort in Buffalo but added three rushing touchdowns and 92 yards on nine runs. He had never scored as a runner before and only once before topped 35 yards as a runner. Wilson only managed 122 passing yards and no scores in San Francisco back in week seven and ran for only 10 yards on three scampers.

Marshawn Lynch faces one of the top rushing defenses in the league but he already gained 103 yards on 19 runs back in week seven and his only efforts under 100 yards in the last eight weeks were all in road games, not at home. Lynch scored eight touchdowns in the seven games since the last 49ers matchup. His last three home games all produced over 120 rushing yards with at least one score.

The passing effort was so bad in the previous matchup that no tight end or wideout Golden Tate had a reception in the game and the best receiver ended up as Ben Obamanu with only three catches for 50 yards. This will be a defense battle to be sure and the 49ers were able to pin down even Tom Brady for three quarters last week.

The only fantasy play here is Marshawn Lynch just the same as really any other game this year. Wilson had a monster game as a runner last week but that's not likely to happen here.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 17 6 21 23 17 8
Preventing Fantasy Points SF 4 2 1 14 2 11

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Russell Wilson, SEA @DAL 30000030031 ***
Wilson was rendered impotent at home in Week 14 and failed to throw more than one TD for the first time in nine straight games. He travels to Dallas against a feisty young secondary. The Cowboys have allowed two TDs a game, or once every 11.9 completions (11th). The position has averaged 250.4 yards (15th) since Week 10.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Mike Davis, SEA @DAL 6002200000 ***
This matchup is far better suited for aerial threats out of the backfield. Davis faces a Dallas team that has allowed only a pair of ground scores over the last five games (116 carries).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB J.D. McKissic, SEA @DAL 2005300000 ***
McKissic has a hint of appeal in deep DFS contests. The Cowboys have allowed RBs to average seven catches for 59.4 yards a game, figures both falling inside of the top five for their respective categories.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Doug Baldwin, SEA @DAL 0071101000 ***
Dallas has given up touchdowns at the second-highest rate, once every 7.5 catches. The matchup ranks in the top six for both scoring formats, and Baldwin should be a fine play after last week's offensive letdown.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA @DAL 002301000 ***
Lockett has a decent enough matchup -- top six in both scoring formats -- but remains a role player. He is safer to bench than chance starting.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jaron Brown, SEA @DAL 002300000 ***
Brown has a good matchup but too minute of a role with five catches spread over his last four games.

WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

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