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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 17
2012
ARI at SF CLE at PIT JAC at TEN OAK at SD
BAL at CIN DAL at WAS KC at DEN PHI at NYG
CAR at NO GB at MIN MIA at NE STL at SEA
  CHI at DET HOU at IND NYJ at BUF TB at ATL

Prediction: CAR 23, NO 30 (Line: NO by 5)

Players to Watch: Steve Smith, Mark Ingram, Darren Sproles

The 6-9 Panthers are on a three game winning streak and already beat the Saints 35-27 back in week two. The Panthers are just 3-4 on the road this year though. The 7-8 Saints have a chance to break even and avoid a losing season with a win here and are 4-3 at home with a two game winning streak going. This is a playing for pride" game for both sides but the Saints are much better now than they were back in week two and they play at home.

Carolina Panthers
Homefield: Bank of America Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @TB 10-16 10 DEN 14-36
2 NO 35-27 11 TB 21-27
3 NYG 7-36 12 @PHI 30-22
4 @ATL 28-30 13 @KC 21-27
5 SEA 12-16 14 ATL 30-20
6 BYE ----- 15 @SD 31-7
7 DAL 14-19 16 OAK 17-6
8 @CHI 22-23 17 @NO -----
9 @WAS 21-13 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CAR @ NO Rush Catch Pass
QB Cam Newton 50,1 260,1
WR Torrey Smith 5-70,1
WR Jarius Wright 3-40
TE Greg Olsen 6-70
PK Graham Gano 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Panthers had only that one Saints win to open the season and was 1-6 by week eight. At 5-3 the rest of the way, the Panthers have something to build upon for next year. The defense improved over the course of the season which was one main reason for the improved win-loss record and the offense that stumbled badly in the first half of the year finally turned around for the rest of the way but just returning to the same sort of equation as last year. Let Cam Newton throw to Steve Smith and failing that, just take off on a run. That pretty much explains the entirety of offensive success this year.

Newton has scored in each of the last eight games. He only managed to throw for six touchdowns over his first eight games and turned that up to 13 scores in just the last seven. He's also been more likely to run and scored eight times as a rusher this year. The was on a hot streak at the end of the year but cooled off a bit against the Raiders last week. He threw for 253 yards and one score in the first meeting with the Saints and ran for 71 yards with a touchdown on the ground as well.

The rushing effort here has been lackluster all year. The running backs combined for eight scores - the same as Newton - and never once had any runner top 100 yards in any game. Jonathan Stewart was finally given the starting job, did nothing with it and then has been out since week 12 with a high ankle sprain. Stewart only scored once all year and never ran for more than 51 yards in any game and never was allowed more than 17 runs. DeAngelo Williams is likely done in Carolina and had three touchdowns this year on the ground plus two as a receiver. Michael Tolbert existed only to steal the occasional touchdown himself.

Stewart almost played last week when he was only questionable and got some practice time on Friday. I'll assume he mixes in this week to ensure no runner matters here.

Greg Olsen enjoyed a career year with five scores and nine games over 50 yards but has mostly been marginal as a fantasy starter along with most every other tight end in the league. Olsen has been on a nice streak to end the year though with around 50 yards in each of the last eight games. He's clearly the best receiver behind Steve Smith though he only managed one catch for 13 yards in the last Saints game. Brandon Lafell had 90 yards on six catches in that game while Steve Smith accounted for 104 yards on just three catches.

No different ending here. Newton and Smith are must starts and the rest are risky bets that are even less likely to do well in a road game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CAR 4 25 23 10 32 18
Preventing Fantasy Points NO 32 29 32 25 22 13

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Cam Newton, CAR CIN 50100028011 ***
Cincinnati has yielded the third-most yards per game (347.5) and two scores, on average, to quarterbacks. The TDs have come once every 17.8 completions, which is in the lower half of the league for exploitation ease. The Bengals have not allowed a rushing touchdown to passers, though they haven't faced a beast like Cam yet.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR CIN 50091000000 ***
McCaffrey has 18 carries and 20 receptions through two games, touchdown-less. Cincinnati has allowed running backs to catch nine passes (9th) for 72.5 yards (5th). None of the passes have scored. This is the third-worst matchup for rushing yardage and 11th-hardest for finding the end zone on the ground.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB C.J. Anderson, CAR CIN 400000000 ***
Anderson has thus far proven useless for fantasy purposes. Christian McCaffrey and Cam Newton are overwhelmingly the preferred choices of this backfield's designs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Torrey Smith, CAR CIN 002301000 ***
Smith is merely a shot in the dark in any fantasy lineup. The veteran has a so-so matchup against a defense that sits 17th against WRs in standard scoring.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Devin Funchess, CAR CIN 005600000 ***
Cincinnati falls into the neutral category for matchups after two weeks of data. The defense has permitted the seventh-most receptions but the fifth-lowest touchdown efficiency. Yardage-wise, it ranks 15th. Funchess is a better PPR play and is a flex consideration.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarius Wright, CAR CIN 003300000 ***
Wright has carved out a nice role so far, but can gamers trust him in a lineup? It's a big question. Wright's 12 targets eclipse the 11 by Torrey Smith and D.J. Moore combined through two games. The matchup is just average this week, however. Wright is a coin flip.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DJ Moore, CAR CIN 003300000 **
Moore's lone NFL reception was a 51-yard touchdown, where he demonstrated his ability after the catch. The rookie has some upside due to his athletic skills, but counting on him is asking a bit much based on limited involvement. Cincy ranks in the middle of the pack vs. WRs.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Graham Gano, CAR CIN 3322 ***
All four of the extra point kicks and four of the five field goal tries against the Bengals have been true. The nine total kicks rank as the 10th-highest combination.

New Orleans Saints
Homefield: Superdome
Sportexe Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 WAS 32-40 10 ATL 31-27
2 @CAR 27-35 11 @OAK 38-17
3 KC 24-27 12 SF 21-31
4 @GB 27-28 13 @ATL 13-23
5 SD 31-24 14 @NYG 27-52
6 BYE ----- 15 TB 41-0
7 @TB 35-28 16 @DAL 34-31
8 @DEN 14-34 17 CAR -----
9 PHI 28-13 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NO vs CAR Rush Catch Pass
QB Drew Brees 320,2
RB Mark Ingram 70,1
TE Benjamin Watson 3-30

Pregame Notes: The Saints have a chance at a .500 season which is remarkable considering that they were 1-5. The problem all along has not been with the offense which is just as good as it has ever been and is actually more balanced now. The effects of BountyGate was devastating to a defense that wasn't that great to start with and it really showed with seven opponents scoring 28 points or more. That's been good business for fantasy teams owning Saints players and Drew Brees has been a gold mine again this year.

Brees already threw 39 touchdowns this year and crossed 300 yards nine times including the last four weeks and two efforts over 400 yards. His 446 yards and three scores last week came at the perfect time in fantasy championships. Brees was held to only one passing score by the Panthers last time but threw for 315 yards and ran in one touchdown as well.

What happens with the Panthers is that they have good cornerbacks and their one strength is against wide receivers. They are below average against running backs and tight ends. In week two, Darren Sproles had 13 catches for 128 yards in Carolina as a season best. Mark Ingram ran for 53 yards and one score and has scored in three of the last four games. Pierre Thomas rushed for 110 yards on just nine carries in Carolina but has been marginal as a runner in almost all other games.

Jimmy Graham reeled in seven passes for 71 yards and a touchdown in the last meeting but has been hampered by his wrist for most of the last two months. He has not scored for the last five weeks but still ends up around 60 yards in games. He has the current lead in the NFL with 13 drops this season thanks to the bad wrist.

The Panthers play the corners very well so that makes relying on Lance Moore or Marques Colston harder to do this week. But Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles should both benefit from facing the weakest part of the defense. Even Pierre Thomas could show up with something significant again as he did in the first meeting.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NO 1 3 8 2 23 21
Preventing Fantasy Points CAR 8 22 3 21 27 16

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Drew Brees, NO @ATL 0000031021 ***
Brees posted fairly similar lines in his Week 14 (271-2-1) and Week 16 (239-1-1) lines in the two contests with the Falcons last year. The matchup is not ideal, with the Atlanta defense having held quarterbacks to 226 yards and a 1.5 TDs a game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Alvin Kamara, NO @ATL 30010901000 ***
Kamara's worst game of 2017 came against the Falcons in Week 13 (5.7 PPR points). Two weeks later, eh was good for 16 points. He failed to score in either contest. The primary back this time out, Kamara should be a safer fantasy play. Atlanta has permitted the sixth-most receptions (9) and eighth-most yards (62) per contest in 2018.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Michael Thomas, NO @ATL 00101001000 ***
Thomas went for 10-117-1 (27.7 PPR) in last year's Week 14 game against the Falcons, following it up with a 4-66-0 day in Week 16. Wideouts have posted three receptions for scores against this defense in the last two games, averaging 12.5 catches (18th) for 133 yards (24th) along the way.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Ted Ginn Jr., NO @ATL 005600000 ***
The Falcons have been scored on three times by wideouts over the span of 25 receptions allowed. That is the only highlight of the matchup, on paper, as it soundly sits in the bottom half of the league based on data over the first two weeks. Ginn managed only 2.7 PPR points in Week 14 and returned to post 19 PPR in Week 16 last year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tre'quan Smith, NO @ATL 002300000 ***
Smith's role is too fringe at this time to utilize him with any confidence in fantasy lineups. Look for a better combination of ceiling-to-floor ratio.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Benjamin Watson, NO @ATL 004300000 ***
Atlanta has kept tight ends under wraps, giving up only eight catches for 62 yards and no scores over two weeks of play. Watson can be ignored.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Wil Lutz, NO @ATL 3322 ***
Lutz made five fantasy points worth of kicks in the 2017, Week 14 game, adding 11 more in the meeting two weeks later. Atlanta has given up six total kicks (2 FGAs) in its first two games, checking in as the fourth-lowest possible points against.

WEEK 17
2012
ARI at SF CLE at PIT JAC at TEN OAK at SD
BAL at CIN DAL at WAS KC at DEN PHI at NYG
CAR at NO GB at MIN MIA at NE STL at SEA
  CHI at DET HOU at IND NYJ at BUF TB at ATL

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