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David Dorey
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WEEK 17
2012
ARI at SF CLE at PIT JAC at TEN OAK at SD
BAL at CIN DAL at WAS KC at DEN PHI at NYG
CAR at NO GB at MIN MIA at NE STL at SEA
  CHI at DET HOU at IND NYJ at BUF TB at ATL

Prediction: KC 10, DEN 24 (Line: DEN by 16)

Players to Watch: Jamaal Charles, Knowshon Moreno, Ronnie Hillman

The Broncos can clinch a first round bye with a win here and if the Texans were to lose as well, the Broncos become the #1 seed. The 2-13 Chiefs once again narrowly miss the playoffs and seek to improve their 1-6 road record this year. This game is hard to call because you cannot be sure when the Broncos feel comfortable enough to pull back the reins a bit but with a 16 point spread, common sense says this game should be a blowout of some measure. The Chiefs last two road games combined for a total of just seven points. The Broncos last two home games total 65 points.

This is a replay of week 12 when the Broncos won 17-9 in Kansas City.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT 13-16
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN 6-28
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN 9-17
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR 27-21
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE 7-30
6 @TB 10-38 15 @OAK 0-15
7 BYE ----- 16 IND 13-20
8 OAK 16-26 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD 13-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
KC @ DEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Henne 200,1

Pregame Notes: The season concludes in Denver and chances are excellent that a new coaching staff will be in place next season along with some unknown number of players. Most notable will be a new quarterback since the duo of Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn have run their course and end the year with a total of only eight passing touchdowns and only one effort that topped 300 yards - 301 in Buffalo in week two.

The eight passing scores have been accompanied by 20 interceptions thrown and seven lost fumbles. The switch to Brady Quinn in week 11 has resulted in only two touchdowns and both of those came in the same game. Quinn topped out at 201 yards so far and threw for only 126 yards and one interception in the previous meeting with the Broncos.

With Dwayne Bowe out, there is no one to throw it to anyway and even Tony Moeaki remains out with a concussion. Johnathan Baldwin has two catches total over the last three weeks.

The only success all year has been the running of Jamaal Charles who topped 100 yards seven times this year and went over 200 yards twice. As a prime example of the Chiefs sort of year, he ran for 165 yards and one score in Cleveland in week 15 and gained 226 yards just last week. And sandwiched between those was when he gained only ten yards on nine runs in Oakland. Charles has been a great comeback story after tearing up his knee last year and he even ran for 107 yards on 23 carries in the last meeting with the Broncos.

That's going to be hard to count on this week with the Broncos defense hitting a new level in the last month or so. But Charles is the only fantasy play on this team since Dwayne Bowe left. Even on the road, he is always worth a start and has been golden in nearly every game that does not involve the Raiders. With the passing game in shambles now, the Chiefs will rely on the run as much as they can and probably more than they should.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 32 4 32 29 25 32
Preventing Fantasy Points DEN 11 5 8 32 4 10

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Patrick Mahomes, KC SF 20000032040 ***
San Fran is one of four teams without an interception in this young season. The "bombs away" approach KC is taking on offense can always lead to mistakes, but Mahomes has been crisp with his decisions. The first-year starter has a date with the eighth-best matchup of the week using data from the first two games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Kareem Hunt, KC SF 8012100000 ***
Hunt will need to defy the current trend if he wants to score vs. the Niners. None of the 64 touches resulted in an end zone visit. The matchup is favorable otherwise -- second-best for catches and 11th-best for offensive yards generated.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyreek Hill, KC SF 0071202000 ***
One in every 9.3 catches against the Niners by wide receivers has found paydirt thus far. San Fran has given up 207.5 yards (5th most) on 14 catches (12th) to the position. Hill should be in for another huge fantasy day.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Sammy Watkins, KC SF 005801000 ***
Watkins showed up in a big way last week and should benefit from the single coverage based on the extra attention paid to Tyreek Hill. San Francisco has given up top-10 figures for non-PPR and reception-rewarding formats. Watkins is much better used in the former, particularly against an opponent that has allowed the fifth-most yards to WRs so far.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Chris Conley, KC SF 003400000 ***
Conley has no fantasy value at this time. The matchup is helpful, but he isn't involved consistently enough to matter.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Travis Kelce, KC SF 007701000 ***
The 49ers have surrendered only five catches for 54 yards to tight ends, but two of those catches went into the end zone to make this the 11th-best matchup in non-PPR.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Harrison Butker, KC SF 1155 ***
All nine kicks have hit their mark against the 49ers in 2018. Six of them were touchdown-capping attempts, and this is a neutral matchup by all metrics.

Denver Broncos
Homefield: Invesco Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 PIT 31-19 10 @CAR 36-14
2 @ATL 21-27 11 SD 30-23
3 HOU 25-31 12 @KC 17-9
4 OAK 37-6 13 TB 31-23
5 @NE 21-31 14 @OAK 26-13
6 @SD 35-24 15 @BAL 34-17
7 BYE ----- 16 CLE 34-12
8 NO 34-14 17 KC -----
9 @CIN 31-23 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Emmanuel Sanders 5-70,1
WR Demaryius Thomas 5-80,1

Pregame Notes: The Broncos official word is that they are not going to rest any players and that Peyton Manning will put in a full game. And the reality is that the only thing that matters here is a win which won't be hard to obtain. And the Texans will have already played so that Denver will know if they even have a chance to win more than a first round bye. They are playing the Chiefs at home. This game smacks of players sitting out late in the contest if only Knowshon Moreno and maybe Peyton.

Manning already threw for 285 yards and two scores in Kansas City and has scored in every game this year. Over half of his games contain three passing scores. How much will be needed to beat the Chiefs? The first touchdown alone may do the trick. Manning is always a gamer and wants to play. And if he was hurt in the fourth quarter of a 24-3 game, just how bad would that be?

Moreno had his first start of the year against the Chiefs and ran for 85 yards on 20 carries and caught four passes for 26 yards. He's been a true surprise and his success only illustrates how great it is to play running back for a team with Peyton Manning under center. he is averaging 94 rushing yards per start and 29 more yards as a receiver. Not bad for a guy we thought was so far down the depth chart that he had to share one helmet with two other players.

Ronnie Hillman will likely get at least a few more reps this week and may end up taking over at some point.

Jacob Tamme scored on his four catches for 48 yards in Kansas City and that was his only score all year since the season opener. Demaryius Thomas also scored and ended with 82 yards while Eric Decker caught four passes for 64 yards.

The Broncos want to win this game but that should not be a big problem. The real issue is how reliable can these guys be once they have that two score lead? Against a team that can only has seven points total over their last two road games? More risk here than it may seem.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DEN 9 13 2 8 8 3
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 17 20 16 8 29 30

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Case Keenum, DEN @BAL 0000023021 ***
Quarterbacks have completed only 46.7 percent of their passes, or the lowest in football, against the Ravens. The 181.5 yards per game ranks as the third fewest, although giving up a touchdown strike every 8.8 completions (thanks to Andy Dalton) sits as the sixth-easiest ratio.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN @BAL 5003200000 ***
Baltimore has permitted the 17th-most rushing yards a game 83.5, and this is where the fun ends. The rest of the data against through two weeks shows the Ravens to be one of football's most damning matchups for this position. RBs have averaged a laughable three receptions for 8.5 yards.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Royce Freeman, DEN @BAL 400000000 ***
Don't expect this to be the week in which Freeman gets on track. Baltimore has put the clamps down on running backs, giving up the second-fewest fantasy points in both of the primary scoring structures. Unless he gets lucky with a situational touchdown plunge, expect another poor showing.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Emmanuel Sanders, DEN @BAL 005601000 ***
After incorporating the stats from last Thursday night against the Bengals, Baltimore appears to be utilizing the ever-wise "break but don't bend" concept of defense. This group has limited receivers to the fifth-lowest reception total but has permitted touchdowns with the sixth-highest frequency. All four of the TDs came last week, with three at the hands of A.J. Green.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN @BAL 003401000 ***
Sutton has been involved with 11 targets through two games, but he has just three catches. Look for safer options if you are the risk-averse type. He's merely a gamble vs. Baltimore due to the frequency WRs scored against the Ravens last week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Demaryius Thomas, DEN @BAL 005500000 ***
Buffalo didn't test Baltimore's secondary in Week 1. A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd embarrassed it in Week 2. Thomas should be capable of finding some room to operate against a defense that has allowed touchdowns at the sixth-easiest clip this year, even if all of it came in one game. The Ravens, in fairness, have clamped down on catches and yardage.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jake Butt, DEN @BAL 004400000 ***
Slowly but surely, Butt figures to increase his role and become a fantasy-relevant weapon. The young tight end is generally no better than fourth in the pecking order, and he shouldn't be in fantasy owners' Week 3 plans.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Brandon McManus, DEN @BAL 2222 ***
Kicker have averaged 6.5 fantasy points against the Ravens, attempting an even four kicks apiece, with the lone miss being a field goal.

WEEK 17
2012
ARI at SF CLE at PIT JAC at TEN OAK at SD
BAL at CIN DAL at WAS KC at DEN PHI at NYG
CAR at NO GB at MIN MIA at NE STL at SEA
  CHI at DET HOU at IND NYJ at BUF TB at ATL

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