FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 17
2012
ARI at SF CLE at PIT JAC at TEN OAK at SD
BAL at CIN DAL at WAS KC at DEN PHI at NYG
CAR at NO GB at MIN MIA at NE STL at SEA
  CHI at DET HOU at IND NYJ at BUF TB at ATL

Prediction: PHI 24, NYG 30 (Line: NYG by 7)

Players to Watch: Michael Vick

The Giants can still reach the playoffs, all they need to do is to win here and then have the Cowboys, Bears and Vikings all lose. So it looks like another time that a Super Bowl champion was unable to reach the playoffs the next year. The Eagles are preparing for their first coaching turnover since 1998. This is a replay of week four when the Eagles won 19-17. Both teams have imploded since then though the Eagles a bit worse.

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 17-16 10 DAL 23-38
2 BAL 24-23 11 @WAS 6-31
3 @ARI 6-27 12 CAR 22-30
4 NYG 19-17 13 @DAL 33-38
5 @PIT 14-16 14 @TB 23-21
6 DET 23-26 15 CIN 13-34
7 BYE ----- 16 WAS 20-27
8 ATL 17-30 17 @NYG -----
9 @NO 13-28 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Darren Sproles 10 7-70,1
WR Alshon Jeffery 4-50,1
WR Torrey Smith 5-70,1
TE Brent Celek 5-50

Pregame Notes: This game is the final for Andy Reid with the Eagles and possibly the last of Nick Foles as the starting quarterback next year if they intend on bringing in a new coach with a spread offense from Oregon. Foles was placed on injured reserve with a fracture to his hand and so Michael Vick gets his final chance to play for the Eagles. Other teams are already starting to queue up to obtain him though six months from now that could be all different.

Vick passed for 241 yards and one score in the week four meeting with the Giants and added 49 rushing yards as well. But most of that went to DeSean Jackson (6-99, TD) and he's been gone since week 12. Jeremy Maclin was limited to only one catch for seven yards in that game. Maclin tweaked his knee in practice on Wednesday and has been limited but said he fully intends on playing this week. Maclin was ineffective in week four due to a hip injury.

Throwing Vick back into the mix doesn't make this group any easier to forecast and likely no more productive anyway. Outside of Maclin, there has not been a reliably consistent receiver on the team after Jackson left and realistically - Jackson was struggling to be productive anyway.

The only notable event last week was that LeSean McCoy returned and was given 13 runs for 45 yards and he caught nine passes for 77 yards. That was his high mark on the year as a receiver and came from Foles, not Vick.

Vick could be a play this week if you were in a bind since the Giants are weak against the pass anyway and Vick will want to play well knowing he is about to start handing out resume's. McCoy already ran for 123 yards on the Giants in week four and there is no reason to save him for later now. But beyond those two is hard to recommend because Maclin is banged up and Vick will be back.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 15 21 14 21 21 30
Preventing Fantasy Points NYG 28 16 29 15 18 8

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Carson Wentz, PHI WAS 20000032030 ***
Wentz threw only one TD pass in two games last year vs. the 'Skins, tossing a matching interception. He went for 314 yards in Week 14 but only 179 in the earlier meeting. This year's Washington defense has given up a lowly 228.5 yards and a TD strike every 21 completions. One of the 13 rushing attempts found paydirt.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeGarrette Blount, PHI WAS 701000000 ***
No team has rolled over as easy as the Redskins when it comes to surrendering rushing scores. One in every 21.7 carries goes into the end zone against this defense. However, it is the fifth-hardest in which to gain rushing yards against.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Wendell Smallwood, PHI WAS 3003200000 *
Smallwood is working his way back from injury. Check back Friday for a clearer understanding of his expected status because of this being a Monday night contest.

Update: A full practice on Friday was a great sign that he'll play. Trusting him in fantasy is a risky proposition.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Nelson Agholor, PHI WAS 006901000 ***
Washington has given up hardly anything to receivers, ranking as fantasy's second-hardest opponent using per-game data over the past five weeks. All of that could be moot if corners Bashaud Breeland and Josh Norman cannot go.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Torrey Smith, PHI WAS 002201000 ***
Only one of the last 37 WR catches against this defense has scored.It firmly ranks in the bottom five in all major categories against the position. Consider anything productive from Smith to be a product of Josh Norman and Bashaud Breeland being injured.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Alshon Jeffery, PHI WAS 003300000 *
Starting cornerbacks Josh Norman and Bashaud Breeland may be out for Washington. This would severely sway things in Jeffery's favor against what is otherwise a dominant defense of his position. Only one of the last 37 catches by WRs has scored on the 'Skins.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Ertz, PHI WAS 008901000 ***
It was a tale of two games for Ertz versus the Redskins in 2016. The Week 6 game ended in a 1-22-0 line, whereas the Week 14 meeting was fully in Ertz's favor after 10-112-0 showing. In the past five weeks, the 'Skins have allowed tight ends to average the sixth-most fantasy points in both scoring systems.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jake Elliott, PHI WAS 1144 ***
Washington has given up 8-for-8 on touchdown-encore kicks, while seven of nine three-pointers split the pipes. This is a negative-leaning matchup.

New York Giants
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL 17-24 10 @CIN 13-31
2 TB 41-34 11 BYE -----
3 @CAR 36-7 12 GB 38-10
4 @PHI 17-19 13 @WAS 16-17
5 CLE 41-27 14 NO 52-27
6 @SF 26-3 15 @ATL 0-34
7 WAS 27-23 16 @BAL 14-33
8 @DAL 29-24 17 PHI -----
9 PIT 20-24 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYG vs PHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Eli Manning 250,2
WR Brandon Marshall 8-120,1

Pregame Notes: Going 2-4 in the final six games have all but sunk the Giants this season and they need to win this week to have at least a winning record of 9-7. The fortunate part is that this happens at home where the Giants have been far better and scored 90 points in just the last two games. But on the road - only about ten points per game since their bye week. This is a must-win sort of game but one that comes with a "plus all this unlikely stuff has to happen".

The main problem has been consistently Eli Manning and the passing offense that has really declined since week six. Take away two home games against the Packers and Saints (albeit good enough teams) and the Giants only threw for four touchdowns in eight games. Plus yardage was most often under 200 passing yards. It was speculated to be "tired arm" and he was much better after the week 11 bye in those two home games but even these last two weeks he has only passed for 161 yards at home and scored just once.

Hakeem Nicks is bothered by his knee really the entire season and comes off his first game with no catches. Nicks has been limited in practices this week and is not a lock to play. Rueben Randle will take his place if needed. Nicks did not play in the first meeting with the Eagles and Victor Cruz turned in nine catches for 109 yards and one score. Fortunately he has been much better in home games this year though overall his season has been disappointing after a fast start had him with seven scores over the first seven games. He has managed only two touchdowns since and just twice was better than 67 yards in a game.

Ahmad Bradshaw and the rest of the tailbacks did little in that first meeting but will face a different defense this time and one that knows it's all going to be rebuilt anyway. Bradshaw was able to play last week but only ran nine times for 39 yards. He is still being rested during the week but is expected to play the full game this Sunday.

Manning is still worth a start here but he's been a mediocre play in most games this year. At least this is at home where he and Bradshaw and Cruz should be worthy of a fantasy start in a game they need to win to have any hope of reaching the playoffs.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYG 22 9 11 22 2 11
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 25 9 25 12 25 31

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Eli Manning, NYG SEA 0000015012 ***
Weaponless, shielded by a feeble offensive line, Manning isn't worth starting in an good matchup and certainly not against a well-rested Seattle defense.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Wayne Gallman, NYG SEA 5004300000 ***
This defense is especially unkind to PPR backs. Gallman will do more than just catch the ball, but he's going to play second-fiddle to Orleans Darkwa and have a daunting matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Orleans Darkwa, NYG SEA 5001100000 ***
A week after he overcame a horrible matchup, Darkwa finds himself against a Seattle defense that is fresh off a bye. The 'Hawks have allowed 109 rushing yards, on average, which is the ninth most in football. Just two of the last 82 carries have found the end zone. Darkwa will have an uphill trek vs. fantasy's sixth-hardest opponent.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG SEA 004300000 ***
Update: Shepard, questionable after being limited all week, may give it a go, albeit with a terrible matchup ahead of him. The Giants' second-year receiver is a fringe play and could safely be benched in most situations.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Roger Lewis, NYG SEA 003200000 ***
Lewis may be one of the top remaining bodies left among the Giants receiving corps, yet he has no fantasy worth in Week 7. Seattle should have no problem shutting down the inexperienced wideout.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Evan Engram, NYG SEA 005300000 ***
Seattle allows quarterbacks to work over the middle with tight ends, giving up 60.5 yards on five receptions per meeting. One of the 20 catches in the past four games has scored.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Aldrick Rosas, NYG SEA 1111 ***
This is a top-10 opponent for Rosas. Seattle has granted only five extra points against twice as many field goal tries (nine made).

WEEK 17
2012
ARI at SF CLE at PIT JAC at TEN OAK at SD
BAL at CIN DAL at WAS KC at DEN PHI at NYG
CAR at NO GB at MIN MIA at NE STL at SEA
  CHI at DET HOU at IND NYJ at BUF TB at ATL

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