Game Predictions & Player Projections - BAL vs TB

Game Predictions & Player Projections - BAL vs TB


Game Predictions & Player Projections - BAL vs TB

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Prediction: BAL 24, TB 20 (Line: BAL by 3)

UPDATE: Both Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans are questionable on the injury report. But Evans was able to do limited work this week and is expected to return after missing the last game because of his groin injury. Vincent Jackson was held out of practices on Wednesday and Thursday before returning on Friday for limited work but he was just resting his ribs and is expected to play.

The 3-2 Ravens bring their 1-1 road record to face the 1-4 Buccaneers who are 0-2 at home. The Ravens are playing good football now and losing to the Colts by one touchdown is hardly a knock anymore. The Buccaneers are scoring a lot of points with Glennon around and keeping games very close. This could go either way but in the end have to like the Ravens defense being the difference maker.

Baltimore Ravens

1 CIN 16-23 10 TEN —–
2 PIT 26-6 11 BYE —–
3 @CLE 23-21 12 @NO —–
4 CAR 38-10 13 SD —–
5 @IND 13-20 14 @MIA —–
6 @TB —– 15 JAC —–
7 ATL —– 16 @HOU —–
8 @CIN —– 17 CLE —–
9 @PIT —–  
News | Statistics | Roster
BAL @ TB Rush Catch Pass
QB Joe Flacco 280,2
RB Justin Forsett 40 5-30
RB Trent Richardson 50 3-20
RB Lorenzo Taliaferro 30,1
RB Terrance West 20,1
WR Steve Smith 7-100,2
WR Mike Wallace 5-60,1
PK Justin Tucker 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Ravens just have to get through these next two games because weeks eight and nine are likely to decide their fate this year when they play in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. The defense has yet to allow more than 23 points to any opponent and the offense is just good enough in most games to take the win.

QUARTERBACK : Joe Flacco finally had a game without a score when he passed for 235 yards in Indianapolis. He’s been consistently better at home where he’s thrown six touchdowns in three games. He also throws one interception when on the road but almost never when at home. He’s still nothing more than an average quarterback in fantasy terms with one good performance in Carolina when Steve Smith took his old team out behind the woodshed.

RUNNING BACK : The worst situation of all now. Justin Forsett remains the primary-ish back and Lorenzo Taliaferro comes second but Bernard Pierce was brought back into the rotation last week. Forsett (6-42, TD) added seven catches for 55 yards and Taliaferro (5-18) was unsuccessful running in a short touchdown. But Pierce was give four runs for 30 yards in a game that the Ravens were losing. How that plays out ongoing is hard to guage but Forsett seems to be the only safe fantasy play if only because he’s the only one getting receptions as well.

WIDE RECEIVER : Facing a better secondary, Steve Smith (5-34) finally had his first quiet game as a Raven. Torrey Smith (3-38) was just as unproductive as ever and has lost all fantasy value. Despite the winning record, the Ravens are not producing any passing stats of note beyond anything that Smith can do. He’s a must play and the rest are not worth owning. But now we know – Smith can have a bad game.

TIGHT END : Dennis Pitta has been gone for two weeks and Owen Daniels is at least mildly encouraging. He followed up his 4-43 game in Carolina with five catches for 70 yards in Indianapolis but was targeted less than Torrey Smith.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: There are plenty of yards and scores to take from the Buccaneers. The question is how motivated the Ravens will be against the Bucs but it is a road game and that tends to focus a team more plus coming off a loss means they need to get back on track. The Bucs do play better at home. There is a chance that Flacco has a big game here, especially since the Buccaneers are generally decent against the run and bad against the pass. But beyond Forsett and Smith, there are no really safe plays. Flacco is decent and certainly has upside if he will stretch to fill it. This would be a good spot to see Taliaferro bull in a score too but Pierce makes that a risk now.Both Julio Jones and Antonio Brown scored twice against the Buccaneers.

Gaining Fantasy Points BAL 21 6 24 12 9 29
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 25 27 29 29 28 30

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1 CAR 14-20 10 ATL —–
2 STL 17-19 11 @WAS —–
3 @ATL 14-56 12 @CHI —–
4 @PIT 27-24 13 CIN —–
5 @NO 31-37 14 @DET —–
6 BAL —– 15 @CAR —–
7 BYE —– 16 GB —–
8 MIN —– 17 NO —–
9 @CLE —–  
News | Statistics | Roster
TB vs BAL Rush Catch Pass
QB Mike Glennon 250,1
RB Storm Johnson 80,1 1-10
RB Doug Martin 50,1 3-20
WR Mike Evans 4-60
WR Vincent Jackson 6-80,1
WR Louis Murphy 3-40
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins 2-20

Pregame Notes: Hard to argue against having Mike Glennon as the starting quarterback though HC Lovie Smith has yet to anoint him anything more than just this week’s starter. These last two games have not only shown the Buccaneers offense to work far better, but it went in two road games against tough opponents. And Mike Evans was missing last week as well. The defense continues to be the weakest link but this return home after three straight road games will be interesting. The offense returns much better but will the defense? If had held opponents to 20 points or less before coughing up more in away games.

QUARTERBACK : Mike Glennon has been day versus night against Josh McCown who only passed for two scores in three games. Glennon has five scores over the last three weeks and topped 249 yards in each of the last two games. McCown never had more than 183 yards in any game. It may take another week or so but Glennon has to be named the permanent starter. He’s just much better than McCown.

RUNNING BACK : The Buccaneers have not had the luxury of just running the ball much and Doug Martin has topped out at 14 carries per game for no more than 45 yards. This will be his first full game at home which should help but he’s been lackluster when he plays. He’s gained only 2.5 yards per carry on average and is not getting the blocking that he needs. Worse yet, Bobby Rainey stole the only rushing score in week five. The passing offense has improved. The rushing attack has not.

WIDE RECEIVER : With McCown under center, Vincent Jackson’s production went into the trash. But now he’s scored twice in the last three weeks and even turned in eight receptions for 144 yards in the New Orleans loss. Mike Evans remains out at least another week or two with a groin injury but Louis Murphy is actually making inroads to a job after being acquired just a few weeks back. He caught three passes for 35 yards and one touchdown last week and six receptions for 99 yards in Pittsburgh. Murphy has already earned the #3 spot once Evans is back and is making some noise as the current #2.

TIGHT END : While there is still no reason to ever start a Buccaneers tight end, at least Austin Seferian-Jenkins is on the field nearly all the time with the offense and is getting looks and passes. He has yet to score or gain over 45 yards in a game, but the rookie will continue to grow into his role. The only question is how fast.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Ravens have never allowed more than one passing touchdown per opponent so this is going to be a challenge for Glennon. The Raiders have also held opposing rushers to no more than 69 yards in any game and so far Martin is not rushing well anyway. This is a home game which helps though and Glennon has re-energized Jackson who is a must start each week. Glennon and Martin remain risks to be below average on the week but there is upside with both. This game will help better define the Bucs offense under Glennon and at home for the first time.

Gaining Fantasy Points TB 19 25 22 24 29 5
Preventing Fantasy Points BAL 6 6 27 4 15 6

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