Game Predictions & Player Projections - CAR vs GB

Game Predictions & Player Projections - CAR vs GB


Game Predictions & Player Projections - CAR vs GB

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Prediction: CAR 27, GB 31 (Line: GB by 7)

UPDATE: Kelvin Benjamin is expected to clear all concussion tests and play this week but check on him pregame since it was not official as of late Friday. Darrin Reaves is also questionable to play but Jonathan Stewart will now start and make Reaves a non-factor anyway. I am adding Stewart and removing Reaves.

The 3-2-1 Panthers messed up the standings with their tie last week in Cincinnati and they are 1-1-1 on the road this year. Man. I hate ties. The 4-2 Packers are 2-0 at home and on a three game winning streak. The home field wins this game but the Panthers broke their 2014 mold last week and tied the Bengals in their stadium.

Carolina Panthers

1 @TB 20-14 10 @PHI —–
2 DET 24-7 11 ATL —–
3 PIT 19-37 12 BYE —–
4 @BAL 10-38 13 @MIN —–
5 CHI 31-24 14 @NO —–
6 @CIN 37-37 15 TB —–
7 @GB —– 16 CLE —–
8 SEA —– 17 @ATL —–
9 NO —–  
News | Statistics | Roster
CAR @ GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Cam Newton 50,1 240,2
RB Jonathan Stewart 50 10
WR Kelvin Benjamin 5-70,1
TE Greg Olsen 5-50,1
PK Graham Gano 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The rapid decline of the Panthers defense finally prompted the offense to get into the shootout and a victory against the Bears was nearly followed by an unthinkable win in Cincinnati. The problem with the offense is no different than the last few years – there are very few play makers. Outside of Cam Newton, Greg Olsen and Kelvin Benjamin this offense would do nothing. There’s no reason so far to expect any improvement which means the Panthers have to go throught Olsen and Benjamin or they will not win.

QUARTERBACK : Cam Newton’s stats say he is slowly getting healthy. After three weeks of single digit touchdowns and moderate yardage he threw two scores in the win over the Bears. Then last week he not only had a season best 284 yards and two scores in Cincinnati, he ran 17 times for 107 yards and one score. For the season, Newton had totaled only 14 runs for 42 yards over four games. The Bengals were clearly caught unprepared. Springing that was a stroke of genius and it worked. But now the cat is out of the bad and Newton can return to ruining all value from the running backs which is almost unavoidable anyway.

RUNNING BACK : DeAngelo Williams is still nursing his high ankle sprain and Fozzy Whitaker aggravated a quad injury during Sunday’s tie with the Bengals. Jonathan Stewart may be back this week but if not, then Darrin Reaves will continue to start. But this remains one of the worst backfields in the NFL as it has for the last few years. The return of Newton running and scoring only ensures that the fantasy value from this unit falls short of even a flex application. I will project for Reaves for now and add in or out what happens during the week. In the end, it doesn’t really matter.

WIDE RECEIVER : Aside from one score caught by Jason Avant back in week two, Kelvin Benjamin has all four of the other touchdown receptions by a wideout and the only 100 yard game. Benjamin typically gets around eight to ten targets and is the only receiver that offers a shred of productive consistency. His average game is five catches for 69 yards and that dwarfs any other wide receiver.

TIGHT END : Greg Olsen doesn’t quite get as many targets as Benjamin but he has a team high five touchdown catches and averages 65 yards per game. Olsen and Benjamin are the only two receivers for the Panthers that have more than one score or one decent game.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Packers defense is nothing special but will be at home for an advantage. No opponent has passed for more than 260 yards or two scores on the Packers though most have one or two with moderate yardage. Unfortunately, the Packers are great against tight ends and not allowed any to score. They have also not faced any decent tight ends other than Martellus Bennett who recorded nine receptions for 134 yards on them in week four. Don’t be concerned and start Cameron who is too integral to the Panthers to get shut down. The bigger problem is that the Packers have held opposing wideouts below 100 yards in every game and given up just six scores to the position to players far more advanced than Benjamin. A healthy Calvin Johnson only managed 82 yards and no scores. Benjamin is still start worthy but temper expectations.

Gaining Fantasy Points CAR 6 31 13 9 11 11
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 13 21 10 4 7 13

Green Bay Packers

1 @SEA 16-36 10 CHI —–
2 NYJ 31-24 11 PHI —–
3 @DET 7-19 12 @MIN —–
4 @CHI 38-17 13 NE —–
5 MIN 42-10 14 ATL —–
6 @MIA 27-24 15 @BUF —–
7 CAR —– 16 @TB —–
8 @NO —– 17 DET —–
9 BYE —–  
News | Statistics | Roster
GB vs CAR Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 310,3
RB Eddie Lacy 60,1 1-10
RB James Starks 40
WR Davante Adams 4-50
WR Randall Cobb 5-60,1
WR James Jones 6-70,1
WR Jordy Nelson 8-100,2
TE Jared Cook 6-60,1
TE Andrew Quarless 3-30
PK Mason Crosby 1 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: The shaky start to the season is forgotten after four straight wins and Aaron Rodgers owners are back to being insufferably smug. This has been quite a different season for the Packers offense since it no longer relies on a wide cast of receivers including tight ends. It mostly now sticks to just Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. And the power rushing game of 2013 now has Eddie Lacy and James Starks holding hands as they skip through the box score. Aaron Rodgers never runs anymore let alone scores on the ground. But it all works again and the Packers need to keep winning to stay up with the Lions who already have one win over them.

QUARTERBACK : While Aaron Rogers started slowly – he was going against the Seahawks and Lion on the road – he’s back to classic form with ten touchdowns over the last three weeks and no fewer than three per week. He’s thrown only one interception back in the season opener. His yardage has varied from 156 yards to 346 yards but he’s always thrown for three scores in Green Bay this year.

RUNNING BACK : There is no happiness for Eddie Lacy owners since he never gets more than 14 carries in any game and has scored just three times this year. Aside from the 105 yards he posted on the Vikings, Lacy remains below 50 yards in every other game and has only a minimal role as a receiver. Compare that to 2013 when Lacy ran over 20 times in 11 games. Starting in week five last season, Lacy only fell below 50 rush yards twice and topped 80 yards nine times. He also scored 11 times. The return of Rogers has much to do with the change in roles but Lacy was such an effective runner, it is surprising that they do not use him more and that the bother pairing him with James Starks who scored five times in his five year career. Their sharing is not 1:1 but Starks gets at least eight runs per game that could make a huge difference for Lacy.

WIDE RECEIVER : As noted, the majority of the offense goes through just the two wideouts and why not? So far no one is stopping them. Jordy Nelson scored five times already including three efforts over 100 yards. Randall Cobb logged seven touchdowns though with lesser yardage, Aside from those two and their 12 touchdowns, the only other scorers are Davante Adams with one and Andrew Quarless with two though both players have minimal yardage or consistency.

TIGHT END : Andrew Quarless scored in two of the last three games but both were in road venues and even then he is averaging around only 20 yards per week.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Panthers allowed multiple touchdowns to all but one opponent and very healthy yardage over the last three weeks for Flacco, Cutler and Dalton who all passed for 289+ yards. The Panthers are also weak against the running back touchdowns so there is a chance that Lacy at least scores with decent yardage as he did in the most recent home game. No reason to bench the standard starts – Rogers, Lacy, Cobb and Randall.

Gaining Fantasy Points GB 7 27 1 27 22 8
Preventing Fantasy Points CAR 26 31 25 10 15 11

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