Game Predictions & Player Projections - SF vs DEN

Game Predictions & Player Projections - SF vs DEN


Game Predictions & Player Projections - SF vs DEN

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Prediction: SF 20, DEN 34 (Line: DEN by 7)

The 4-2 49ers are on a three game winning streak but have a short week to prepare. The 4-1 Broncos are 3-0 at home and won their last two games by 14 points. The 49ers are coming together offensively but not well enough to take down the Broncos in Denver.

San Francisco 49ers

1 @DAL 28-17 10 @NO —–
2 CHI 20-28 11 @NYG —–
3 @ARI 14-23 12 WAS —–
4 PHI 26-21 13 SEA —–
5 KC 22-17 14 @OAK —–
6 @STL 31-17 15 @SEA —–
7 @DEN —– 16 SD —–
8 BYE —– 17 ARI —–
9 STL —–  
News | Statistics | Roster
SF @ DEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Colin Kaepernick 50 270,2
RB Reggie Bush 40 4-30
RB Carlos Hyde 30
WR Anquan Boldin 4-50
WR Torrey Smith 3-40
PK Phil Dawson 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: the 49ers are playing much better football lately though the schedule has been much kinder as well. Their offense is more diversified in receivers and running backs and the scoring is up as proof. The problem this week is trying to prevent the Broncos from getting a big lead early and forcing Colin Kaepernick from throwing too often. The 49ers cannot have mistakes and turnovers in Denver if they have any hope of staying in the game.

QUARTERBACK : Colin Kaepernick comes off a career best game with 343 passing yards and three scores in St. Louis. That was his first three-score game of the year and his only effort over 250 yards. Kaepernick continues to add value as a runner and usually ends up around 50 rushing yards but has yet to score a touchdown on the ground. His passing has been far more average – 220 yards and one score – in most games.

RUNNING BACK : Frank Gore is still fantasy relevant but really only in home games where he’s rushed for over 100 yards or at least scores. But on the road, he is only averaging 38 rush yards in away games. Worse yet Carlos Hyde still takes ten carries every week as well to further decrease Gore’s stats. This is not a strong unit overall because they almost never catch any passes and rely purely on the rushing totals.

WIDE RECEIVER : This has grown into the strength of the offense and in credit to Kaepernick, all four wideouts are contributing. Anquan Boldin is easily the most consistent though at moderate yardage and he finally scored for the first time just last week. Brandon Lloyd is usually a nonfactor but caught an 80 yard touchdown pass that really turned the Rams game around last Monday. Michael Crabtree scored in that game as well giving him three on the season. But he is in consistent. He’s ended games twice with less than 30 yards and yet twice topped 80 yards. Steve Johnson is another wildcard with scores in two games when he only had one short catch in each. And yet as high as 103 yards in Arizona. The usage of these wideouts depends on the secondary and what they allow. This is still mostly an average set of wideouts and harder to predict since all four are getting usage.

TIGHT END : Vernon Davis was back after missing a game from his back injury but only managed three catches for 30 yards last week. He’s been brutal for fantasy owners since he scored in just one game and otherwise has been never better than a mere 40 yards in a game. It doesn’t help matters that the offense is using four wide receivers now.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Broncos are only average against the run and have allowed four rushing touchdowns but never more than 88 yards and the 49ers on the road are likely to be below average with Gore and Hyde splitting up the pie. No opponent has thrown for more than two scores on the Broncos and the yardage is surprisingly light considering how many 40+ and even 50+ pass attempts they have allowed. Gore is a low end starter in any week and even more so here. Kaepernick should produce at least mid-200’s yardage and a couple of scores but more would be hard to rely on. How those yards and scores are distributed are tough as well as the Broncos have only allowed three touchdowns to wide receivers and that is all the 49ers really use. Aqib Talib should match on Boldin and depress his stats.

Gaining Fantasy Points SF 14 26 15 21 9 14
Preventing Fantasy Points DEN 19 18 5 23 9 3

Denver Broncos

1 IND 31-24 10 @OAK —–
2 KC 24-17 11 @STL —–
3 @SEA 20-26 12 MIA —–
4 BYE —– 13 @KC —–
5 ARI 41-20 14 BUF —–
6 @NYJ 31-17 15 @SD —–
7 SF —– 16 @CIN —–
8 SD —– 17 OAK —–
9 @NE —–  
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Ronnie Hillman 60,1 3-20
WR Emmanuel Sanders 7-100
WR Demaryius Thomas 7-110,2
PK Brandon McManus 2 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: The Broncos have been even more of a juggernaut in recent weeks posting big points against the defenses of the Cardinals and Jets. It is likely that they’ll be favored in every game here on out and the next two weeks are tougher matchups but both come at home. The aim of the Broncos now is to maintain everyone’s health and just stay on course.

QUARTERBACK : Nothing new with Peyton Manning who has thrown 15 touchdowns already and has always posted at least three in a home game. His yardage has varied more this year with two games around 240 yards but in both he still had three scores.

RUNNING BACK : Montee Ball remains out for two to three more weeks with separation of his groin to the bone. In his place it was really all Ronnie Hillman who ran for 100 yards on 24 carries against a normally stout Jets defensive front. He added three catches for 16 yards as well while Juwan Thompson (8-38) was there for the scraps. C. J. Anderson was active and on the field for just one play but never touched the ball. Hillman is the new primary back and so far has been successful. He faces a tough stretch of defenses before Ball returns but he’s already torn up the Jets. Hillman could end up forcing a new rotation at running back once Ball returns.

WIDE RECEIVER : Wes Welker’s role in the offense was already smaller this year and last week saw him catch just one pass for eight yards and that was his only target in the game. He’s lost all fantasy value at least for now. Emmanuel Sanders turned in just 38 yards last week as well but has been rock solid and posted 100+ yards in the three precious games. Demaryius Thomas is the constant and comes off a two game stretch that totaled 18 catches for 350 yards and three touchdowns. The numbers here are still healthy, they just do not include Welker as much anymore.

TIGHT END : Julius Thomas is not much for yardage since he rarely tops 50 yards anymore but he’s money with touchdowns. He’s already caught nine scores in just five games which is a pace for a ridiculous 29 touchdowns on the year. Something has to cool or he gets his own section in the record book.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The 49ers may be without Patrick Willis and that could help in all facets of the Broncos offense. The 49ers have not yet faced any team as good as the Broncos let alone in their stadium. Figure if Drew Stanton, Jay Cutler and Alex Smith all throw for two or more touchdowns on them, Manning is plenty safe with his normal three. Playing at home there is never a reason to bench any of the normal starts for the Broncos. Hillman will have a tough time against a defense that has been solid against the run but again – he just tore up the Jets in New York and the 49ers have several injuries in the defense.

Gaining Fantasy Points DEN 2 29 3 2 20 13
Preventing Fantasy Points SF 6 1 19 8 3 22

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