Game Predictions & Player Projections - GB vs NO

Game Predictions & Player Projections - GB vs NO


Game Predictions & Player Projections - GB vs NO

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Prediction: GB 31, NO 27 (Line: NO by 1)

Update: Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas will both sit this one out, so Travaris Cadet has been added to pick up some of their stats. We used the Sean Payton scientific method of figuring out the Saints’ backfield distribution: we put all the names in a hat and drew them out randomly. I believe the kids say “kidding, not kidding” after such a statement.

The 5-2 Packers are on a four game win streak and are tied with the Lions for the NFC North lead. They are only 2-2 on the road. The 2-4 Saints are 2-0 at home but have played only the Vikings and Buccaneers there. The Saints need to turn the boat around to be sure and they are at home but the Packers are hitting on all cylinders and their best strength – wide receivers – are the biggest weakness of the Saints.

This is the late game on Sunday.

Green Bay Packers

1 @SEA 16-36 10 CHI —–
2 NYJ 31-24 11 PHI —–
3 @DET 7-19 12 @MIN —–
4 @CHI 38-17 13 NE —–
5 MIN 42-10 14 ATL —–
6 @MIA 27-24 15 @BUF —–
7 CAR 38-17 16 @TB —–
8 @NO —– 17 DET —–
9 BYE —–  
News | Statistics | Roster
GB @ NO Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 290,3
RB Eddie Lacy 60,1 3-20
WR Davante Adams 3-40
WR Randall Cobb 6-90,2
WR James Jones 5-50,1
WR Jordy Nelson 8-120,1
TE Jared Cook 4-40
TE Andrew Quarless 2-20
PK Mason Crosby 1 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: The Packers are on a nice run this past month and the bye awaits them next week. An even more favorable situation unfolds when they return and only have three road venues in their final eight games and they’ll likely be favored in all of them. You can forget about the struggles in 2013. The Pack is definitely back.

QUARTERBACK : Aaron Rodgers posts ridiculous touchdown totals every week and currently has 18 scores to his credit and just one interception back in the season opener. The yardage tends to be more moderate than in years past but he’s gone four straight games with no fewer than three touchdowns in each.

RUNNING BACK : The Packers have opted for a more split backfield much to the dismay of every Eddie Lacy owner but James Starks twisted his ankle and his status is not yet known. I will update as needed but assume the injury will keep him out for one week. Lacy scored four times over the last four games but his yardage has been halved from last season. if he can operate without Starks or anyone else, his value increased significantly since Starks was consuming eight carries or more in most games and stole a touchdown just last week.

WIDE RECEIVER : Not only is this the #1 unit for fantasy wideouts, it is almost exclusively just Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson. they share 14 touchdowns between them and over the last month both players scored at least once in every game. Nelson has been deadly in road games with over 100 yards in the last two while Cobb topped the century mark in just one of them. Bottom line – these are two top five wideouts on the same team. Davante Adams scored in two of the last three but his yardage remains low.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value. Andrew Quarless scored twice this year but remains well under 20 yards each week.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Saints defense was horrible in 2012 but suddenly became a top unit in 2013. Were are back to 2012. Opponents are scoring multiple touchdowns and upper 200 passing yards each week lately and none of them are as good as the Packers. In just the last three games, the Saints have surrendered seven touchdowns to wide receivers. Lacy could get a shot at a short yardage touchdown and moderate yardage but the passing lanes should be open for Rodgers, Nelson and Cobb.

Gaining Fantasy Points GB 7 25 1 28 22 8
Preventing Fantasy Points NO 22 24 31 1 25 23

New Orleans Saints

1 @ATL 34-37 10 SF —–
2 @CLE 24-26 11 CIN —–
3 MIN 20-9 12 BAL —–
4 @DAL 17-38 13 @PIT —–
5 TB 37-31 14 CAR —–
6 BYE —– 15 @CHI —–
7 @DET 23-24 16 ATL —–
8 GB —– 17 @TB —–
9 @CAR —–  
News | Statistics | Roster
NO vs GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Drew Brees 310,2
RB Travaris Cadet 20 5-40
RB Mark Ingram 40,1 3-20
WR Brandin Cooks 8-70
TE Coby Fleener 2-20,1
PK Kai Forbath 3 FG 1 XP
PK Josh Scobee 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The toughest part of being 2-4 is losing three of the games by less than a field goal. The passing game is still cranking out the big stats, The running game remains a mish-mash of players who currently combine for one of the most productive units. But the defense consistently falls apart at the end of games and allowed 93 points over just the last three games. The schedule does not improve in the coming weeks but at least there will be more home games than away. This is only the third time the Saints have been in New Orleans this season.

QUARTERBACK : Nothing wrong with Drew Brees aside from throwing more interceptions this season – seven in just six games. But he’s already thrown four 300 yard games and only once failed to score twice in a game. Granted – he has yet to score three times but he is solid with the two scores.

RUNNING BACK : Pierre Thomas is back out for another two to three weeks with a bad shoulder which give Khiry Robinson a increase is carries and catches. Mark Ingram returned last week but was held to only 16 yards by the Lions defense. Robinson was an effective runner for a few weeks when he had the majority of carries.

WIDE RECEIVER : Brandin Cooks really declined from his earlier games but his two best yardage and reception totals did come from the two previous home games. Cooks has just the one score from the season opener. Marques Colston is the most productive one with two efforts over 100 yards and usually 60+ for the week but even he has just one touchdown. Kenny Stills popped up last week with 103 yards and a score on five catches but he’s more likely to flop every week than produce any fantasy relevant stats.

TIGHT END : Jimmy Graham injured his shoulder in week five and only managed two catches for 36 yards in the win over the Buccaneers. But against the Lions, he was active, dressed and played 30 snaps without ever catching the ball. He had two late throws that he missed, but he pulled a big goose egg. He will play this week and he did not suffer any apparent setbacks last week. But he is clearly not healthy yet so playing him will be a risk until he can make it through all full practices.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Packers are only average on defense but have not given up more than 256 passing yards or two touchdowns to any quarterback. They tend to allow a rushing score in away games. The status of Graham is crucial to know here because without him the offense takes a definite step down. Brees and Colston are good starts. Ingram or Robinson should score once and turn in good yardage but choosing one is risky. Ingram was ineffective last week but out carried Robinson 10 to 3. This should become a shootout So even Cooks and Stills could be upside flex plays.

Gaining Fantasy Points NO 6 1 24 1 16 30
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 18 17 11 9 8 9

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