Game Predictions & Player Projections - STL vs KC

Game Predictions & Player Projections - STL vs KC


Game Predictions & Player Projections - STL vs KC

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Prediction: STL 16, KC 24 (Line: KC by 6.5)

The 2-4 Rams are only 1-1 in road games but come off an upset victory over the Seahawks. The 3-3 Chiefs are only 1-1 at home but come off an upset victory over the Chargers. Everything fell into place for the Rams last week and that’s not likely twice in a row and on the road.

St. Louis Rams

1 MIN 6-34 10 @ARI —–
2 @TB 19-17 11 DEN —–
3 DAL 31-34 12 @SD —–
4 BYE —– 13 OAK —–
5 @PHI 28-34 14 @WAS —–
6 SF 17-31 15 ARI —–
7 SEA 28-26 16 NYG —–
8 @KC —– 17 @SEA —–
9 @SF —–  
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vs Rush Catch Pass

Pregame Notes: The victory over the Seahawks was huge, especially on the tails of being drubbed at home by the 49ers. But that was much more of a game where special teams and trick plays all worked. The reality was that the passing effort is still average at best and the defense has allowed at least 26 points in each of the last four games. The only real plus coming out of that game is that the Rams may once again be finding a starting tailback at mid-season for the second year in a row.

QUARTERBACK : Austin Davis was very efficient last week completing 18 of 21 passes for 152 yard and two scores but he generally needs a poor secondary before he can post significant stats. But he is scoring in every game for the last month and the opponents have all been tough matchups. Davis is not one for throwing a lot of deep passes and that is a problem when they fall behind.

RUNNING BACK : Out with the old, in with the new. The Zac Stacy experience seems to have run its full course now that he is healthy and yet standing on the sideline never touching the ball. He was a nice surprise at midseason of 2013 but has never quite gotten into gear for 2014 though in fairness he’s been limited to a dozen or less carries in all but one game. Tre Mason showed up in week six with 40 yards on five carries and then broke it open with 18 runs for 85 yards and a score on the visiting Seahawks.

Benny Cunningham remains the third down back and that will shortcut Mason since he has not yet been used as a receiver. Cunningham scored on a reception last week for the first time this year. He now has three scores – one each over the last three games.

WIDE RECEIVER : The Rams just released Austin Pettis. The wideout crew remains largely unreliable and inconsistent. Kenny Britt scored in week five but otherwise has been well below fantasy relevance and just ended the Seahawks win with only four yards on two catches. Brian Quick seemed to be coming into prominence with three scores over a two week span but since only produced games with one catch for ten yards and then two catches for 33 yards. There is no real fantasy value here.

TIGHT END : The Rams use their tight ends sparingly in most weeks though Jared Cook is usually good for around 45 yards weekly. But Lance Kendricks scored in three of his last four games. Almost no yardage and usually with just one catch. Not reliable but he is scoring. If Cook could just grab those scores then there would be a fantasy play here.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: Every opponent throws for a touchdown against the Chiefs but very few manage more than the one and the yardage has not exceeded 230 for the last four games. Davis is barely average and that will continue here. His best chance of scoring will be using a tight end since they have already accounted for six touchdowns against the Chiefs. And Mason goes against a defense that has not allowed any back to score so far this season. He may gain decent yardage but the score cannot be expected. Mason is the only obvious fantasy play here and that is just for moderate yardage.

Gaining Fantasy Points STL 20 19 21 8 24 26
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 7 6 12 19 28 10

Kansas City Chiefs

1 TEN 10-26 10 @BUF —–
2 @DEN 17-24 11 SEA —–
3 @MIA 34-15 12 @OAK —–
4 NE 41-14 13 DEN —–
5 @SF 17-22 14 @ARI —–
6 BYE —– 15 OAK —–
7 @SD 23-20 16 @PIT —–
8 STL —– 17 SD —–
9 NYJ —–  
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vs Rush Catch Pass

Pregame Notes: The Chiefs win over the Chargers keeps them at .500 and still in the race. Plus beating the Chargers in their own home evens up the divisional record that plays out only late in the season with four of the final six versus AFC West rivals. Aside from the opening loss to the Titans that looks more freakish with every week, the defense has been quietly very good at holding opponent scoring down.

QUARTERBACK : Alex Smith scores in every game now but fell back to single touchdowns last week in the win over the Chargers. Previously he was on a three game streak with multiple touchdowns though his season high for yardage is only 255 yards and that was the only non-scoring game he had back in week two against the Broncos.

RUNNING BACK : Jamaal Charles is solid every week with around 90 rushing yards but he still has not broken 100 yards as a runner and his role as a receiver has been in significant decline this year. Charles has a high game of only 16 receiving yards and only catches two or three passes at most. Knile Davis has chewed into Charles workload to account for the lack of 100 yard games but no back is doing much as a receiver in this offense.

WIDE RECEIVER : This is the worst set of fantasy wideouts in the league and mainly because after six games played, none of them have managed to catch so much as one touchdown. None of them. The yardage rarely tops 50 for any of them and Junior Hemingway just injured his hamstring and may not play. Donnie Avery is out injured as well but it doesn’t matter. None of these players have any fantasy relevancy aside from Dwayne Bowe who is consistent with 40 yards per week but never more than 80. And no scores. Ever.

TIGHT END : Travis Kelce fell off his three game streak with a touchdown and yet his four catches for 33 yards was right in line with what he usually does lately. Kelce can show up with very good yardage but he needs to catch a long pass to get there.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Rams weakness is against the run – great for Charles – and then against wide receivers who have already scored ten times on them. Charles is an obvious start and Kelce appears less likely to matter against a defense that limits even good tight ends to moderate games. Bowe is a risky start but one with more upside this week than normal thanks to playing the same position as Doug Baldwin who rolled up 123 yards and a score on the Rams just last week.

Gaining Fantasy Points KC 21 2 32 9 23 23
Preventing Fantasy Points STL 31 5 25 7 22 31

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