Game Predictions & Player Projections - CIN vs HOU

Game Predictions & Player Projections - CIN vs HOU


Game Predictions & Player Projections - CIN vs HOU

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Prediction: CIN 17, HOU 23 (Line: HOU by 1)

UPDATE: Arian Foster is questionable to play again this week and missed practices on Thursday and Friday and is a game time decision because of his groin. I am changing the projections to reflect the risk and be aware that he may not play at all. If he does play, he won’t be 100%.

Sure to be an interesting game but it could end up a low scoring defensive matchup. The 6-3-1 Bengals come off a surprise win over the Saints right after they were manhandled by the visiting Browns. The Bengals are still atop the AFC North by a half game. The 5-5 Texans just dominated the Browns in their stadium. How this plays out could be any number of ways since both teams are inconsistent.

Cincinnati Bengals

1 @BAL 23-16 10 CLE 3-24
2 ATL 24-10 11 @NO 27-10
3 TEN 33-7 12 @HOU —–
4 BYE —– 13 @TB —–
5 @NE 17-43 14 PIT —–
6 CAR 37-37 15 @CLE —–
7 @IND 0-27 16 DEN —–
8 BAL 27-24 17 @PIT —–
9 JAC 33-23  
News | Statistics | Roster
CIN @ HOU Rush Catch Pass
QB Jared Crick
QB Andy Dalton 230,2
RB Giovani Bernard 40 3-20
RB Jeremy Hill 50 2-20
WR A.J. Green 6-110,1
WR Brandon LaFell 5-80
PK Mike Nugent 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Just when it appeared that the Bengals were sinking this year, they come up with a solid win over the Saints and they still remain ahead in the hyper-competitive AFC North. That’s going to be hard to hold onto since the final six games contain only one matchup against a team with a losing record and four will be road games. These Bengals have varied from looking great last week to being shut out by the Colts and held to just three points by the Browns.

QUARTERBACK : After struggling for a month, Andy Dalton posted three touchdowns and 220 yards in New Orleans thanks in part to a dominating rushing attack with Jeremy Hill. Dalton only threw two scores over the previous four games combined and they both were at home against the Jaguars. Dalton had been worse in road games and this week answers just how aberrant the Saints win was.

RUNNING BACK : Giovani Bernard is expected to return this week after being gone for three games with a hip pointer. Jeremy Hill has been more than adequate in his stead and even served up two great fantasy games because he was allowed to take the total backfield load. He ran for 154 yards and two scores on the visiting Jaguars and just rushed for 152 yards in New Orleans. Bernard’s return mostly decreases a good thing for Hill since they will return to a near 50:50 share. The offense has worked much better with the two both playing and it has opened up the passing game more.

WIDE RECEIVER : A.J. Green came back to life in New Orleans with 127 yards and a score on seven catches but Mohamed Sanu now has two straight games with under 25 yards. Sanu was very productive filling in for Green and racked up for scores but has been much less productive now that Green returned. In the beat down in New Orleans, Sanu only caught three passes for 23 yards.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value other than Jermaine Gresham scoring twice last week. Those were the first scores by any tight end and he only ended just 13 yards on those two catches.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Texans have allowed multiple passing scores to most opponents this year but Dalton is inconsistent and has been just as likely to score none as he has any. The Houston secondary has been their weakest point. The rushing defense at home has been very solid and now that Jadeveon Clowney has been added to the mix they are even better. In Cleveland last week, they held the Browns to only 64 yards on 21 carries and no scores by running backs.The Bengals have scored ten times with running backs and the only time they have not scored has been in every single road game. Six home = ten touchdowns. Away = zero. That makes either of the backs only moderate plays at best this week. Dalton is too risky to start but at least Green deserves consideration and even Sanu might show up in this.

Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 26 12 26 23 15 27
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 23 19 32 9 9 10

Houston Texans

1 WAS 17-6 10 BYE —–
2 @OAK 30-14 11 @CLE 23-7
3 @NYG 17-30 12 CIN —–
4 BUF 23-17 13 TEN —–
5 @DAL 17-20 14 @JAC —–
6 IND 28-33 15 @IND —–
7 @PIT 23-30 16 BAL —–
8 @TEN 30-16 17 JAC —–
9 PHI 21-31  
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Alfred Blue 60,1 2-10
RB Lamar Miller 50 3-20
WR DeAndre Hopkins 5-80,1
WR Cecil Shorts 6-90,1
PK Nick Novak 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The win in Cleveland was big and came right at a time when the Texans looked like they were in decline after losing four of their previous five games. The change to Ryan Mallett did happen during a win but how much difference he made is still hard to determine. But the good news is that four of the final six games are at home and the only tough road venue is in Indianapolis. The Texans still control their fate but almost have to win out to reach even a wildcard. Taking down the Colts is still unlikely thought they are currently impacted by recent injuries.

QUARTERBACK : Ryan Mallett’s first NFL start went well enough with him completing 20 of 30 passes for 211 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. And he was never sacked but that was in part because the Texans ran the ball 49 times. WIth zero videotape on a quarterback, it is not unusual for them to come out and have a good first game. But invariably the defenses wise up quickly and that same success is hard to replicate for a while.

RUNNING BACK : Arian Foster was held out last week because of a groin injury but early word has him returning. That may change but for now the projections will expect a healthy Foster. In his place Alfred Blue has been outstanding and he comes off 36 rushes for 156 yards in Cleveland. One big difference in the two backs is that Blue almost never catches any passes while Foster not only averages around four receptions per week but he also scored via a reception in the last three games.

WIDE RECEIVER : Just one game so far but at least the results were encouraging with Mallett at the helm. Andre Johnson caught 7-of-9 targets for 68 yards in the Texans’ win over the Browns and that was while he was being covered by Joe Haden. DeAndre Hopkins ended with four catches for 80 yards though neither wideout scored. Still, 148 yards to the wideouts in Cleveland has to be viewed as a success.

TIGHT END : Garrett Graham went two straight weeks with no catches but then recorded the first touchdown caught by a tight end this year when Mallett hit him twice for 34 yards. Nothing reliable to be sure.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The biggest part of this matchup is how the Bengals will defend the run. While the Bengals were surprisingly good against the run in New Orleans, they were far less successful stopping anyone else from running. They already allowed 12 touchdowns to running backs and they’ve managed to go all year without facing any back as good as Foster (or even Blue). Foster – if healthy – is a must start. The Bengals have allowed one or two passing scores to opponents and more in road games but depending on Mallett after just one game is a risk. Hopkins and Johnson are worth a consideration at least for yardage.

Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 25 8 23 32 11 5
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 11 30 6 27 21 9

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