Game Predictions & Player Projections - MIA vs DEN

Game Predictions & Player Projections - MIA vs DEN


Game Predictions & Player Projections - MIA vs DEN

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Prediction: MIA 20, DEN 24 (Line: DEN by 7)

UPDATE: Both Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman remain out and Julius Thomas is questionable to play with his sore ankle that has kept him out of practices all week. He will be a game time decision and I am lowering his projections because of the risk he presents. AT least Emmanuel Sanders is expected to play and is listed as probable after he was held out this week because of a concussion but then returned on Friday for a full practice. Charles Clay is doubtful and will be removed from the projections Lamar Miller is questionable because of his knee now and was limited in the last two practices. Miller says he will play but be aware there is a situation with him that could surprise on Sunday.

An interesting game between the 6-4 Dolphins and the 7-3 Broncos. The change in weather alone has to hurt the Dolphins who have used great defense to win games so far but will have trouble keeping up even with an injured Broncos crew.

Miami Dolphins

1 NE 33-20 10 @DET 16-20
2 @BUF 10-29 11 BUF 22-9
3 KC 15-34 12 @DEN —–
4 @OAK 38-14 13 @NYJ —–
5 BYE —– 14 BAL —–
6 GB 24-27 15 @NE —–
7 @CHI 27-14 16 MIN —–
8 @JAC 27-13 17 NYJ —–
9 SD 37-0  
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA @ DEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Tannehill 240,2
WR Greg Jennings 5-50
WR Jarvis Landry 4-60
WR Kenny Stills 4-70
TE Jordan Cameron

Pregame Notes: Solid win over the Bills helps the effort though it only underscores the difference between playing at home (22-9) and playing in their stadium in week two (10-29). At 6-4 the Fins remain in the thick of a wild card race but are unlikely to make up the two games between them and the Patriots. That is going to require the Fins to turn the corner on the road issues and two of those away games are this and also in New England. There are also rumors of dissension in the ranks between the OC Bill Lazor and some players and that could play into ending on a strong note or crumbling.

QUARTERBACK : Ryan Tannehill is no elite quarterback but he has made progress this season and currently totals 17 touchdowns against just seven interceptions after ten games. He’s never failed to throw at least one score but his yardage has been on the lighter side and still has not broken 300 pass yards in any game. He’s averaging just 235 yards per game which is only slightly higher than most.

RUNNING BACK : Though the Dolphins insist on involving Daniel Thomas and Damien Williams each week, at least Lamar Miller is getting around 15 carries in most games and has five of the six rushing touchdowns by the Dolphins this year. Both Williams and Thomas have not scored and rarely contribute more than around 20 yards each. Miller’s production is rarely more than whatever a given defense allows their average opponent.

WIDE RECEIVER : Mike Wallace has been unhappy this year and in fairness, he’s never had more than five catches since the season opener and he gets thrown shorter passes. Tannehill doesn’t throw a deep ball and that somewhat miscasts Wallace as a possession receiver instead of a long ball wideout. Wallace has scored six times this year but only once in the last month and he’s stuck at sub-60 yard efforts. Jarvis Landry has even less yardage but did score in the last two home games. There are touchdowns to distribute and they usually end up with a wideout but the lower passing yardage means none of these players have that much fantasy value.

TIGHT END : Charles Clay only scored twice this year and he rarely exceeds 50 yards in any game. He’s never been anything more than a low-end bye week replacement.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Broncos at home have been much better against the pass with just eight touchdowns allowed over five games. Two scores would be the max you could expect from Tannehill but he could end up with good yardage and those couple of touchdowns if only late in trash time. The Broncos are better than most against the run though and Lamar Miller’s record away from home is poor when facing good teams. He rarely catches many passes and never has much yardage so he’s a marginal start in this venue. Clay is always a risk but at least the Broncos biggest weakness is against tight ends. None of the Dolphins stand out as a good start this week but Clay at least has minor upside and Mike Wallace tends to score and gain more yards in road games though he’ll likely draw Aqib Talib.

Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 14 20 11 16 3 3
Preventing Fantasy Points DEN 25 9 17 28 20 2

Denver Broncos

1 IND 31-24 10 @OAK 41-17
2 KC 24-17 11 @STL 7-22
3 @SEA 20-26 12 MIA —–
4 BYE —– 13 @KC —–
5 ARI 41-20 14 BUF —–
6 @NYJ 31-17 15 @SD —–
7 SF 42-17 16 @CIN —–
8 SD 35-21 17 OAK —–
9 @NE 21-43  
News | Statistics | Roster
DEN vs MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Sanchez 290,2
RB C.J. Anderson 70 6-60
WR Emmanuel Sanders 4-60,1
WR Demaryius Thomas 8-110,1
TE Garrett Graham 2-20
PK Brandon McManus 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The loss to the Rams is the sort of surprise that the Broncos get once or twice each year and this time it was complicated by injuries. The Broncos are tied with the Chiefs for the AFC West and play in Kansas City next week so the last thing they need is to slow down the healing of any players. They could overlook this game and make it much closer than it should be especially with the Dolphins defense playing better. But at home should be enough to notch the win and after the Chiefs game the schedule gets at least a bit easier. This week could be tough to guess how much players may participate if they are not 100% healthy. They need the win but they need their players healthy to keep winning.

QUARTERBACK : Peyton Manning comes off his first single touchdown game of the year but he still rolled up 389 passing yards and he’s back at home where he has yet to score fewer than three touchdowns along with healthy yardage. So long #18 is healthy, this team will always compete.

RUNNING BACK : Ronnie Hillman is expected to miss this week and Montee Ball’s big return saw him crash before he ever made it out of the pit. His current prognosis is that you must wait two to three more weeks in order to see what else is going to ruin his season. At least in his place C.J. Anderson has stepped in nicely. He rolled up 90 rush yards on 13 carries along with 73 receiving yards and a touchdown two weeks ago in Oakland and while he only managed 29 yards on nine runs in St,. Louis, he added 86 yards on eight receptions. Anderson keeps the backfield up as well as Hillman did and certainly better than Ball so far. Juwan Thompson is the #2 this week but he was last Sunday when he had no carries.

WIDE RECEIVER : Emmanuel Sanders had his clock cleaned in the loss to the Rams and is going through the concussion protocol. I will assume he cannot play and update as needed. Sanders has been an integral part of the offense each week and was on a five game stretch of big scores and yards. Demaryius Thomas topped 100 yards in each of the last seven contests and hasn’t dropped below seven catches per game since week three. Both Wes Welker and Andre Caldwell could see more action if Sanders is held out but nothing they have done this year suggests that they’ll merit fantasy consideration.

The rookie Cody Latimer has been inactive in games this year but may see some time with the injuries to the wideouts.

TIGHT END : Julius Thomas twisted his ankle last week but the injury was not serious and he may be back for this tilt. I’ll assume a slightly limited Thomas suits up and update as needed.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Dolphins have been great against the pass but have faced few good quarterbacks. Aaron Rodgers threw for 264 yards and three scores in Miami. Manning is still plenty safe to use but may not have an astronomic game here. No reason to bench the usual – Manning, Anderson and both Demaryius and Julius.

Gaining Fantasy Points DEN 2 18 1 4 25 19
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 3 14 7 2 12 16

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