Game Predictions & Player Projections - BUF vs DEN

Game Predictions & Player Projections - BUF vs DEN


Game Predictions & Player Projections - BUF vs DEN

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Prediction: BUF 17, DEN 30 (Line: DEN by 10)

UPDATE: Julius Thomas is questionable to play and was limited in all practices. He’s a risky one to rely on since they may end up holding him out this week to rest him up for the road trips to San Diego and Cincinnati that are next.

The 7-5 Bills are on a two game winning streak and are 3-2 in road games. The 9-3 Broncos are 6-0 at home and looking at that shiny #1 seed as something they want under their tree.

Buffalo Bills

1 @CHI 23-20 10 KC 13-17
2 MIA 29-10 11 @MIA 9-22
3 SD 10-22 12 NYJ 38-3
4 @HOU 17-23 13 CLE 26-10
5 @DET 17-14 14 @DEN —–
6 NE 22-37 15 GB —–
7 MIN 17-16 16 @OAK —–
8 @NYJ 43-23 17 @NE —–
9 BYE —–  
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB LeSean McCoy 80,1 2-10
WR Sammy Watkins 2-30
WR Robert Woods 5-60
TE Jim Dray 3-40
PK Dan Carpenter 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Bills are in contention for a wild card but the schedule maker did them no favors throwing the Broncos, Packers and Patriots at them over the final four weeks. That sounds a lot like a 8-8 record and a disappointing way to end a season.

QUARTERBACK : Kyle Orton’s effectiveness has declined after starting out with nine touchdowns in his first four starts. He’s only managed four over the last four games and his yardage has declined significantly as well. He’s been better than E.J. Manuel but he is no long-term answer or even a lock to be the backup next year.

RUNNING BACK : Somehow Fred Jackson schedules his injuries so that all he plays in are home games. He has not been in a road game since week five but even with all the home field advantage, he’s been marginal at best and scored three times this season. Even with receiving yardage, he’s struggled to gain more than 50 total yards. Bryce Brown just gets less use and Anthony Dixon remains as a runner despite the marginal results. All combined, this unit has only produced six touchdowns this season.

WIDE RECEIVER : Sammy Watkins’ hip is an issue and his availability this week will be determined later in the week. After a nice career start through week eight, the rookie already had five scores and three 100+ yards efforts. Since then he’s spent the last four games with under 40 yards every week. Robert Woods has stepped up in recent only games against the Jets and Browns but on the road has been far less effective.

Chris Hogan scored in two of the last four games but has really declined in yardage. His season high of 74 yards did happen in the most recent road game.

TIGHT END : Minimal fantasy value with Scott Chandler who scored twice in the last five weeks but only had one catch over the last two road games combined.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: Almost all teams score one or two passing touchdowns in Denver if only during trash time late in games. But the yardage is actually moderate at best and the rushing efforts of opponents are rarely productive. Fred Jackson makes for a low-end flex play because he catches and runs. Orton, Woods and Hogan are considerations only in the hope that they get cheap yardage if not a score. Watkins has been so ineffective recently that he’s better left on the bench until you are sure he is healthy and able to make a difference.

Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 24 17 26 23 6 2
Preventing Fantasy Points DEN 25 7 14 28 15 2

Denver Broncos

1 IND 31-24 10 @OAK 41-17
2 KC 24-17 11 @STL 7-22
3 @SEA 20-26 12 MIA 39-36
4 BYE —– 13 @KC 29-16
5 ARI 41-20 14 BUF —–
6 @NYJ 31-17 15 @SD —–
7 SF 42-17 16 @CIN —–
8 SD 35-21 17 OAK —–
9 @NE 21-43  
News | Statistics | Roster
DEN vs BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Sanchez 250,2
RB C.J. Anderson 80 5-50,1
WR Emmanuel Sanders 5-70,1
WR Demaryius Thomas 8-90,1

Pregame Notes: The Broncos should take both remaining home games and it will be the two road ventures that could end up denying them the #1 seed. That and losing to the Patriots in week nine if they tie. Hopefully the team is getting back Julius Thomas and the myth that is Montee Ball could return as well. That would let the Broncos enter the post-season with a healthier crew than what got them there.

QUARTERBACK : Peyton Manning still has not throw for fewer than three touchdowns in any home game and always ends with high yardage. The weather is the only thing that is going to stop Manning from here on out.

RUNNING BACK : Hard to argue the advantage of playing running back for the Broncos. C.J. Anderson comes off two straight games of 160+ rushing yards and a score in each. His only home game so far has been when he turned in 195 total yards and one score on the Dolphins.

WIDE RECEIVER : No changes to the #1 unit in the NFL. Demaryius Thomas has ended his scoring drought with four touchdowns over the last two games. Emmanuel Sanders‘ day starts at 70 yards and builds from there. Even Wes Welker scored in the last home game.

TIGHT END : Julius Thomas was a game time decision last week before being inactive. He is tentatively expected back for this game and I will pencil him in the projections for now and update as needed.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Bills have been very good against the pass but in reality, that is somewhat built on facing so few decent offenses. Tom Brady laid down 361 yards and four scores in Buffalo. On the road they gave 349 yards and two scores to the Bears. Manning remains a safe start for his standard 300+3 though he’ll want to use tight ends and backs a little more since the Bills are the best at limiting wide receivers. Then again – who have they faced that are remotely like the Broncos? Where this will be an impact is C.J. Anderson who faces a very stout defensive front that has only allowed four touchdowns all year to running backs.

Gaining Fantasy Points DEN 2 16 1 7 17 19
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 8 2 18 9 14 16

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