Game Predictions & Player Projections - HOU vs JAC

Game Predictions & Player Projections - HOU vs JAC


Game Predictions & Player Projections - HOU vs JAC

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Prediction: HOU 27, JAC 16 (Line: HOU by 5)

UPDATE: Garrett Graham is out this week and is removed from the rankings.

The 6-6 Texans are slipping from the playoff race quickly and are 3-3 on the road. But the 2-10 Jaguars probably cannot even afford to go watch a playoff game and are 2-4 at home. The Jaguars swept the Texans last year. That is less likely this year.

Houston Texans

1 WAS 17-6 10 BYE —–
2 @OAK 30-14 11 @CLE 23-7
3 @NYG 17-30 12 CIN 13-22
4 BUF 23-17 13 TEN 45-21
5 @DAL 17-20 14 @JAC —–
6 IND 28-33 15 @IND —–
7 @PIT 23-30 16 BAL —–
8 @TEN 30-16 17 JAC —–
9 PHI 21-31  
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Lamar Miller 60 2-10
WR DeAndre Hopkins 6-90,1
WR Cecil Shorts 5-60
PK Nick Novak 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The monster win over the Titans wasn’t too shocking given that they already beat them in Tennessee. And it illustrates the problem with the Texans who have beaten only one team with a winning record – the Bills back in week two. Two meetings with the Jags left to play means the Texans should be looking at a .500 season unless they can upset the Ravens or Colts. The season has been a disappointment and first round pick Jadeveon Clowney is still injured. But a .500 season is a stepping stone to better things and by next year the Texans defense might even have Clowney.

QUARTERBACK : Ryan Fitzpatrick will fondly remember last week when he threw for 358 yards and six touchdowns on the Titans and the remarkable part wasn’t so much that the Titans could give up those sort of points. It was that Fitzpatrick had just played them two weeks prior and only managed 227 yards and one touchdown like most all of his other games this year. Great surprise but not likely more than a happy aberration.

RUNNING BACK : Arian Foster missed two games with a sore groin but returned to run 19 times for 79 yards and add five catches for 26 yards on the Titans. Foster has caught a touchdown in four consecutive games while maintaining 100+ total yards each week. Alfred Blue was down to only seven carries last week as purely relief for Foster.

WIDE RECEIVER : DeAndre Hopkins doubled a personal best with nine catches, 238 yards, and two touchdowns in the win over the Titans. Fitzpatrick’s record day only gave Andre Johnson 53 yards on seven catches though he scored for only the second time all year. Hopkins topped 100 yards in four different games this year but had never gained more than 116 yards and totaled just four scores on the year prior to last Sunday. Hopkins scored just once in the seven previous weeks. He’s been solid with 80+ yards in most of the last six games.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value with just two tight ends touchdowns this year and Garrett Graham more likely to have no catches than to break 25 yards or more.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The reality with the Jaguars defense is that none if it is very good but different teams beat them in different ways. Relevant here is that the Jags have been one of the worst teams against running backs from week one and in their most recent four games allowed six scores to running backs. Even at home, they gave up two scores and 91 yards to gimpy Rashad Jennings just last week. They have allowed six teams to throw for multiple touchdowns but the other half only had one or no scores. Expect a big game from Arian Foster here and a more normal passing game from Fitzpatrick.

Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 22 11 18 32 11 4
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 19 30 17 23 30 32

Jacksonville Jaguars

1 @PHI 17-34 10 DAL 17-31
2 @WAS 10-41 11 BYE —–
3 IND 17-44 12 @IND 3-23
4 @SD 14-33 13 NYG 25-24
5 PIT 9-17 14 HOU —–
6 @TEN 14-16 15 @BAL —–
7 CLE 24-6 16 TEN —–
8 MIA 13-27 17 @HOU —–
9 @CIN 23-33  
News | Statistics | Roster
JAC vs HOU Rush Catch Pass
QB Blake Bortles 190,1
RB Chris Ivory 50
RB Denard Robinson 50 4-30
WR Marqise Lee 4-60,1
TE Julius Thomas 3-30

Pregame Notes: Taking down the Giants last week may be the final win of the year but at least it secures that second win. The offense has struggled all year and enough so that most teams are just playing down to their level. The final four games will be tough other than the Titans in week 16 but even a win there won’t save this from being just another bad season. The very young offense has made some strides but injuries have mixed up the receivers all year and offensive line problems have been central to most of the difficulties.

QUARTERBACK : Blake Bortles injured his shoulder and ankle last week but is expected to play after an MRI showed no damage. With the Texans and J.J. Watt coming, it is probably not a great time to be hobbled. Bortles showed his legs last week with 68 rushing yards but he was injured and still has just 12 touchdowns against 17 interceptions on the year. I’ll update if warranted but Bortles is expected to be okay.

RUNNING BACK : The Denard Robinson Experience has run out of gas in recent weeks with only 54 total yards against the Giants last week and 25 rush yards in Indianapolis the week before. But he adds receptions to help his totals and his four rushing touchdowns lead the team. Robinson started out with 127 rush yards in week seven and declined down to just another Jaguars back.

WIDE RECEIVER : For being a low scoring team with minimal fantasy value, there has been a lot of development of the young receivers here and several nice games along the way from all different wideouts. Now the most valuable receiver has become Marqise Lee who gained 52 yards in Indy and then 75 yards and a score last week. Cecil Shorts had only 41 yards total over those two weeks and Allen Hurns is back to hiding under a rock for three weeks. Actually Hurns also injured his shoulder but has been ineffective for several weeks.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Texans may be without CB Jonathan Joseph (Achilles) which might help Cecil Shorts. The Texans have allowed one or two passing scores to every road opponent and the rushing defense is average at best. But the Jags are not running well again and Bortles is already banged up before getting tagged by Watts. There is no safe play here but Robinson should end up with at least moderate yardage and there will be a touchdown or two but no one play is really favored.

Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 25 27 20 26 30 10
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 23 19 31 5 1 10

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