Game Predictions & Player Projections - NE vs SD

Game Predictions & Player Projections - NE vs SD


Game Predictions & Player Projections - NE vs SD

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Prediction: NE 27, SD 24 (Line: NE by 3.5)

The 9-3 Patriots come off their loss in Green Bay and bring their 3-3 road record to San Diego where the 8-4 Chargers are 5-1. There is no arguing that the Pats are great at home but this is on the road, after a tough loss and right before they face all three divisional opponents again. The Chargers have the Broncos waiting on the other side of this game as well. Hard to see the Pats losing two in a row but the Chargers can often surprise.

New England Patriots

1 @MIA 20-33 10 BYE —–
2 @MIN 30-7 11 @IND 42-20
3 OAK 16-9 12 DET 34-9
4 @KC 14-41 13 @GB 21-26
5 CIN 43-17 14 @SD —–
6 @BUF 37-22 15 MIA —–
7 NYJ 27-25 16 @NYJ —–
8 CHI 51-23 17 BUF —–
9 DEN 43-21  
News | Statistics | Roster
NE @ SD Rush Catch Pass
QB Tom Brady 300,3
RB LeGarrette Blount 60
WR Julian Edelman 6-60
WR Chris Hogan 3-20,1
WR Nate Washington 5-70
TE Martellus Bennett 4-30
TE Rob Gronkowski 5-80,1
TE Clay Harbor 2-20
PK Stephen Gostkowski 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: Just when the Patriots were on an impressive seven game winning streak they fell short in Green Bay but they already have a two game lead over the rest of the AFC East and a chance to bury that in the coming weeks. This game is not a must win for the Pats other than staying up with the Broncos for the #1 seed.

QUARTERBACK : Tom Brady continues his eight game streak of multiple touchdowns though in the last three games he’s stuck at just two scores. The yardage is always healthy if not big with four 300 yards efforts so far.

RUNNING BACK : The never ending changes to the backfield last week included allowing Brandon Bolden to score the touchdown though he had just three carries in the game. Jonas Gray was allowed just one carry before hitting the bench again and LeGarrette Blount ran for a team high 58 yards on ten carries as the primary back who just showed up at the door two weeks ago wanting to come back home. Shane Vereen was a complete nonfactor with only three carries for six yards and no receptions on the heels of eight catches the previous week. Right now, Blount gaining moderate yardage is as reliable as you can reasonably expect.

WIDE RECEIVER : Branden LaFell only caught five passes for 38 yards in Green Bay but two went for touchdowns and Julian Edelman ended with seven receptions for 48 yards. LaFell has been rock solid with at least 60 yards per week if not also a score and even Edelman has stepped up over the last three weeks. But no other wideouts matter here and all combined, the wideouts only have two LaFell games where someone was over 100 yards.

TIGHT END : Rob Gronkowski led the Pats with 98 yards on seven catches in Green Bay and he bounces between 70 and 150 yards every week with scores more often than not. Tim Wright finally had a game with a catch and yet no touchdown but it was only that one catch for 12 yards. He’s too inconsistent to consider.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Chargers have been outstanding versus the pass at home but they have simply never played a decent passing team there this year. Peyton Manning, Ryan Tannehill and even Derek Carr all passed for three or more touchdowns on the Chargers. But they do play better at home and they have been tops against tight ends who have only scored twice on them all year. Still, Brady, Gronk, LaFell and maybe Blount are all in play for this week. Blount is only yardage since the Chargers have been great versus running backs. Scoring should go through Brady.

Gaining Fantasy Points NE 6 9 21 1 2 8
Preventing Fantasy Points SD 10 18 13 3 7 7

San Diego Chargers

1 @ARI 17-18 10 BYE —–
2 SEA 30-21 11 OAK 13-6
3 @BUF 22-10 12 STL 27-24
4 JAC 33-14 13 @BAL 34-33
5 NYJ 31-0 14 NE —–
6 @OAK 31-28 15 DEN —–
7 KC 20-23 16 @SF —–
8 @DEN 12-35 17 @KC —–
9 @MIA 0-37  
News | Statistics | Roster
SD vs NE Rush Catch Pass
QB Philip Rivers 250,2
WR Keenan Allen 5-50
WR Malcom Floyd 4-50
WR Stevie Johnson 3-40,1
TE Antonio Gates 5-60,1

Pregame Notes: The Chargers last three wins have all been of the “just enough” variety though winning in Baltimore on a nice comeback may end up saving the season at least for a wildcard. But the four remaining games could hardly be much worse with home stands against the Pats and Broncos followed by road trips to San Francisco and Kansas City. Last week was unlike the last month of games and the Chargers have to replicate that if they are to have any postseason chance.

QUARTERBACK : Philip Rivers threw for 383 yards and three scores in Baltimore but only managed two touchdowns total over the three previous games. After starting the season on a strong note with multiple scores through week eight, the offense had gone cold and that included two home games.

RUNNING BACK : Ryan Mathews is taking about all the workload now but that has never been more than 16 carries and in Baltimore he was held to only 38 yards on 13 runs though he scored since. At home Mathews has been more productive but then again he played in only five games this year. Branden Oliver has declined to only one carry last week.

WIDE RECEIVER : Keenan Allen now has two straight big games with 104 yards and one score versus the Rams and now 11 catches for 121 yards and two touchdowns in Baltimore when the Ravens changed their secondary to slow down Antonio Gates. Eddie Royal also scored with nine receptions for 81 yards but as with the rest of the passing game – last week was not like the others. Royal had not scored or topped 50 yards in the previous five games. Even Malcom Floyd ended with 85 yards on three catches instead of his more normal 45 yards or so.

TIGHT END : Antonio Gates ended with 83 yards on seven receptions in Baltimore but that was his best game in a month of sub-40 yard efforts. Gates has not scored since week eight.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Patriots are weaker against the run and allowed seven touchdowns to running backs in the six road games that they have played. Six different backs have gained at or above 100 yards on them as well. On the road the passing defense has been less effective with road opponents regularly posting two scores on them. Rivers, Gates, Mathews and Allen are considerations this week though the Pats will dedicate the secondary to slowing down Allen first.

Gaining Fantasy Points SD 10 26 10 5 13 30
Preventing Fantasy Points NE 16 20 3 24 20 1

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