Game Predictions & Player Projections - KC vs PIT

Game Predictions & Player Projections - KC vs PIT


Game Predictions & Player Projections - KC vs PIT

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Prediction: KC 20, PIT 27 (Line: PIT by 3)

UPDATE: Dwayne Bowe us questionable after sickness kept him out of all practices but he is still expected to play.

Here is a critical game for both teams. The 8-6 Chiefs will almost certainly get knocked from the playoffs with a loss but are only 3-4 on the road. The 9-5 Steelers will likely lose a chance for the AFC North with a loss but are 4-2 at home. The biggest determining factor is here is that the Steelers weakness against the pass doesn’t much matter against Alex Smith.

Kansas City Chiefs

1 TEN 10-26 10 @BUF 17-13
2 @DEN 17-24 11 SEA 24-20
3 @MIA 34-15 12 @OAK 20-24
4 NE 41-14 13 DEN 16-29
5 @SF 17-22 14 @ARI 14-17
6 BYE —– 15 OAK 31-13
7 @SD 23-20 16 @PIT —–
8 STL 34-7 17 SD —–
9 NYJ 24-10  
News | Statistics | Roster
KC @ PIT Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith 240,2
RB Jamaal Charles 90 4-40,1
WR Jeremy Maclin 8-120,1
WR Albert Wilson 4-50
TE Travis Kelce 5-60,1
PK Cairo Santos 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Chiefs final weeks of the schedule have been brutal and are not getting much better here. The defense has done well enough in most games but the offense continues to be all about Jamaal Charles and the run. The Chiefs are still the only NFL team that has yet to throw a score to a wide receiver. That’s a problem when you fall behind which is likely this week.

QUARTERBACK : Despite his problems connecting with a wide receiver, Alex Smith has been mostly average all year and has 19 touchdowns against only six interceptions. He’s more of a game manager in this offense and failed to break 200 yards in six different games. When he faces a softer secondary he can score twice but it has been ten games since he had more than two touchdowns.

RUNNING BACK : Jamaal Charles has been under-used in recent weeks since he had no more than 12 carries in each of the last three games. He is nursing a sore ankle and knee but has been plenty productive when he does carry the ball. Last week it was Knile Davis taking the short rushing touchdown and even though Charles ran for 52 yards on 12 carries, Davis was allowed nine runs to gain just 11 yards. Charles openly questioned his workload after last week so the Chiefs will be a bit more committed to using him here. There is certainly no use in saving him for a later than may never happen.

WIDE RECEIVER : It is not that Dwayne Bowe never has any yardage – he topped 60 yards in five different weeks and had a 93 yard effort in Buffalo as a season high. But not one of the wideouts have scored a touchdown or broken 100 yards this year. Aside from Bowe, it is rare lately that anyone else has more than one catch.

TIGHT END : Travis Kelce has better stats than any of the wide receivers and just scored his fifth touchdown of the season. He also accounted for 110 yards in Arizona for the biggest game by any Chiefs receiver this year. Kelce and Bowe make up the majority of pass targets each week and while Kelce certainly can have a bad game, he’s turned in better numbers than the wideouts.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: Charles should have a decent showing here since the Steelers have allowed three runners to top 100 yards as visitors and it would be unthinkable that the Chiefs would not lean heavily on him in this crucial game. The Steelers are worse against the pass and have allowed multiple touchdowns in all but one home game including the five score Brees had there in week 13. That won’t happen with Smith but one is a lock and two could happen. But as always, Charles and Kelce are the only obvious starts with Bowe showing up as a play for some yardage.

Gaining Fantasy Points KC 25 1 32 5 27 25
Preventing Fantasy Points PIT 28 12 24 25 24 12

Pittsburgh Steelers

1 CLE 30-27 10 @NYJ 13-20
2 @BAL 6-26 11 @TEN 27-24
3 @CAR 37-19 12 BYE —–
4 TB 24-27 13 NO 32-35
5 @JAC 17-9 14 @CIN 42-21
6 @CLE 10-31 15 @ATL 27-20
7 HOU 30-23 16 KC —–
8 IND 51-34 17 CIN —–
9 BAL 43-23  
News | Statistics | Roster
PIT vs KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Ben Roethlisberger 260,2
RB Le’Veon Bell 100,1 6-70,1
RB DeAngelo Williams 20
WR Antonio Brown 7-90,1
WR Martavis Bryant 3-40
TE Heath Miller 4-60
PK Shaun Suisham 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Steelers need to win out to hope to get the AFC North title and the final game against the Bengals will be for all the marbles since they already beat the Bengals two weeks ago and Cincy carries around that tie with them from earlier in the season. The rushing game with Le’Veon Bell has been devastating in recent weeks while the Steelers have been rolling up nice scores. Relative here – the last four home stands all scored over 30 points each.

QUARTERBACK : Ben Roethlisberger has been hot in the second half of the season and scored at least twice in each of the last five home games if not up to six times (twice no less). Six of his last seven games produced over 300 passing yards and he currently totals 29 touchdowns on the season.

RUNNING BACK : Since LeGarrette Blount left four weeks ago, Le’Veon Bell has been on fire every week. He scored at least once in each and totaled seven touchdowns in that time. He rolled up over 100 yards in each and twice broke 185 rush yards. Better yet – three were in road games. Bell has become a 20+ carry beast for the last month.

WIDE RECEIVER : Antonio Brown continues to pump out the stats every week. He’s gained over 100 yards in seven games and over 90 yards in all but two matchups. His 11 touchdowns saw eight of them scored in home games. Martavis Bryant went cold for the last month aside from the Cincy game when he caught four targets for 109 yards and one score – otherwise he’s been quiet in the other three recent games.

TIGHT END : Marginal value from Health Miller but he score three times this year and three times showed up with monster games at home. Otherwise, he may just catch one pass.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Chiefs have a very good secondary that has kept opponents to only two passing scores or less and usually below 200 rush yards. That will slow Big Ben down but won’t stop him. Bell goes against a defense that has only allowed one runner to score on them all year but six different runners gained over 100 yards. Expect lower stats from Roethlisberger but Brown and Bell are must starts every week.

Gaining Fantasy Points PIT 6 5 4 16 9 16
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 4 11 10 11 25 11

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