Game Predictions & Player Projections - BUF vs NE

Game Predictions & Player Projections - BUF vs NE


Game Predictions & Player Projections - BUF vs NE

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Prediction: BUF 17, NE 24 (Line: NE by 10)

This is a replay of week six when the Patriots won 37-22 in Buffalo. The Broncos loss means that the Patriots have nothing to play for this week. So they will almost certainly rest players and the Bills defense is good enough to make them want to protect at least Tom Brady and probably Gronkowski at some point.

Buffalo Bills

1 @CHI 23-20 10 KC 13-17
2 MIA 29-10 11 @MIA 9-22
3 SD 10-22 12 NYJ 38-3
4 @HOU 17-23 13 CLE 26-10
5 @DET 17-14 14 @DEN 17-24
6 NE 22-37 15 GB 21-13
7 MIN 17-16 16 @OAK 24-26
8 @NYJ 43-23 17 @NE —–
9 BYE —–  
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB LeSean McCoy 80,1 1-10
WR Sammy Watkins 3-30
WR Robert Woods 7-70,1
TE Charles Clay 6-50,1
PK Dan Carpenter 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Bills fell out of playoff contention in Oakland last week. The season winds down with more questions than answers since E.J. Manuel proved to be a flop and the running back situation cannot forever depend upon the aged Fred Jackson. This offense could look very different next year and they have to get a young franchise quarterback to pair with Sammy Watkins.

QUARTERBACK : Kyle Orton finishes up his term as the midseason replacement guy but losses in Denver and Oakland recently are plenty to ensure they Bills will look elsewhere for 2015. Orton managed to throw for 329 yards and three scores in Oakland but he only had four touchdowns over the previous five games combined. Against the Patriots he had 299 yards and two scores but that was when he was new to the team. He’s been much less productive since.

RUNNING BACK : C.J. Spiller returned from his ten week absence with a broken collar bone but has never been a factor this year. He scored once in the season opener on a pass and never again. His first game back was only a net of a four yard loss on four carries and four catches for 14 yards. Spiller only gained 19 yards on six runs in the previous meeting with the Patriots while Fred Jackson gained 26 yards on ten runs with one score and four catches for 17 yards. Jackson scored only once more this year and aside from a high volume of catches in recent road games has very little fantasy value.

WIDE RECEIVER : Sammy Watkins started the season on a much higher note. AFter scoring five touchdowns in the first eight weeks, he’s only managed one more and that was just last week in Oakland. He spend the second half of the year with five games of no scores and fewer than 40 yards in each. Watkins was held to two catches for 27 yards in the first meeting with the Pats. Robert Woods gained 78 yards on seven catches in that game and scored once. Woods is becoming a capable #2 in this offense but Watkins needs to claim the #1 spot better in 2015. Chris Hogan would also score on the Pats with 72 yards on five catches but he’s very hot and cold. Hogan scored four times this year but but turned in five games with under 30 yards.

TIGHT END : Scott Chandler has been a marginal tight end this year with only three scores but his best game – by far – was when he caught six passes for 105 yards against these Patriots. He’s been far more consistent with sub 30-yard games.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: This game is played in New England so you would expect much worse results but the Pats have nothing to win here and are likely to rest players. But the Pats are also historically going to play this long enough to ensure a win. The only Bill that seems to have a good shot at fantasy relevance is Fred Jackson catching passes out of the backfield. If they bench their secondary we could see Watkins and Woods. But it is a risk.

Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 20 16 20 18 5 3
Preventing Fantasy Points NE 12 16 3 25 19 3

New England Patriots

1 @MIA 20-33 10 BYE —–
2 @MIN 30-7 11 @IND 42-20
3 OAK 16-9 12 DET 34-9
4 @KC 14-41 13 @GB 21-26
5 CIN 43-17 14 @SD 23-14
6 @BUF 37-22 15 MIA 41-13
7 NYJ 27-25 16 @NYJ 17-16
8 CHI 51-23 17 BUF —–
9 DEN 43-21  
News | Statistics | Roster
NE vs BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Tom Brady 200,2
RB Donald Brown 20 3-20
WR Danny Amendola 4-50
WR Julian Edelman 1-10
WR Chris Hogan 4-50
WR Nate Washington 4-50
TE Martellus Bennett 6-60
TE Rob Gronkowski 4-50,1
PK Stephen Gostkowski 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Broncos gave the Patriots a gift when they lost in Cincinnati so now this week doesn’t matter and the Pats already own homefield throughout the playoffs. The Pats are ending on a three game winning streak and while they had their traditional hard fought win over the Jets, they are looking like the legitimate #1 team in the AFC and no one wants to play there. Like so many Belichick teams, it looked shaky at first but now is an unquestioned powerhouse.

QUARTERBACK : Tom Brady passed for 361 yards and four scores in Buffalo this year in one of his best games. He’s since relied more on the rushing game and thrown no more than two scores over the last six weeks but with solid yardage in each.

RUNNING BACK : The Patriots had little success rushing in Buffalo when Stevan Ridley was held to only 23 yards on ten carries and Shane Vereen only ran for four yards on five runs. Brandon Boldin pitched in six runs for ten yards as well. LeGarrette Blount was out last week with a shoulder injury but has served as the primary back recently. Jonas Gray scored once last week but only ran for five yards on six runs against the Jets. The Bills have a good rush defense and the Pats are going to use Gray, Boldin, Vereen and possibly Blount. The New England backfield remains a spectacular mess in the grandest of their tradition.

WIDE RECEIVER : Julian Edelman was held out last week with a concussion but he is likely available this week. But since there is nothing to win, one more week off might make much more sense. Edelman ended with nine catches for 91 yards in Buffalo this year while Brandon LaFell caught four passes for 97 yards for two touchdowns. LaFell cooled from the first half of the year and he’s scored in just one of the last six games. The return to health of Gronkowski along with an improved rushing game has decreased the scoring for the wide receivers. Danny Amendola did not play in the previous Bills matchup.

TIGHT END : Rob Gronkowski is on the field for every snap now and on a three game scoring streak. He gained 94 yards on seven catches in Buffalo while Timothy Wright scored on his only catch in the game. Wright has been a non-factor since week 12 though.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: This is all a huge risk because the Pats have nothing to play for other than to stay a bit fresh since they get a week off. They may still play to win the game since it is at home and can be done without a major effort but relying on any of the players could backfire. LaFell and Amendola seem likely to play the entire game. Check pregame because the inactives might be surprising.

Gaining Fantasy Points NE 9 13 18 1 1 10
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 3 7 14 1 18 17

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