Game Predictions & Player Projections - JAC vs HOU

Game Predictions & Player Projections - JAC vs HOU


Game Predictions & Player Projections - JAC vs HOU

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Prediction: JAC 3, HOU 31 (Line: HOU by 9.5)

UPDATE: Graham Garrett is out this week because of his ankle.

This is a replay of week 14 when the Texans won 27-13 in Jacksonville. This is a chance for the Texans to reach .500 and look good doing it.

Jacksonville Jaguars

1 @PHI 17-34 10 DAL 17-31
2 @WAS 10-41 11 BYE —–
3 IND 17-44 12 @IND 3-23
4 @SD 14-33 13 NYG 25-24
5 PIT 9-17 14 HOU 13-27
6 @TEN 14-16 15 @BAL 12-20
7 CLE 24-6 16 TEN 21-13
8 MIA 13-27 17 @HOU —–
9 @CIN 23-33  
News | Statistics | Roster
JAC @ HOU Rush Catch Pass
QB Blake Bortles 30 190
RB Jonas Gray 30,1
RB Chris Ivory 50 1-10
WR Allen Hurns 5-40
WR Marqise Lee 4-50
TE Marcedes Lewis 3-40
TE Julius Thomas 4-50

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars win over the Titans jeopardizes the chance for the #1 pick but the needs are so many on this team they’d be better off trading down for more picks. There has been progress on the offense that was remade almost entirely from 2013 but it remains one of the youngest units in the NFL and still cannot claim to be average. The last thing this offense needs is more young players in 2015 but Cecil Shorts is likely gone and be could end up being replaced by a rookie or hopefully a veteran who doesn’t get injured every four weeks.

QUARTERBACK : Blake Bortles starts his 13th game and coming in he’s only totaled 2791 yards and 11 touchdowns against 17 interceptions. He topped 300 yards once but spent most weeks around 200 passing yards and one score if that. Bortles passed for 205 yards and one touchdown in the previous meeting with the Texans. To his credit he has only two interceptions over the four most recent games but only scored three times in those weeks.

RUNNING BACK : Toby Gerhart merely became the next Troy Hambrick. Yet another back who seemed to have good stats playing behind a superstar (Hambrick played behind Emmitt Smith and then flopped in Arizona). But when they try to become a primary back suddenly has far less ability to produce when defenses study to stop you, not be thankful that the stud like Adrian Peterson is out of the game. Gerhard is ending with only 318 yards on 98 carries for a 3.2 YPC and just two touchdowns. He’s just a pricey third down back now though he comes off his best game of the year with 53 yards and one score on 12 runs versus the lowly Jaguars. Back in week 14, Gerhart only managed five runs for 19 yards and two catches for 16 yards versus the Texans.

Jordan Toddman not only ran for a 62-yard touchdown last week, but it was for one yard more than his entire 2014 season rushing total. He’s a third down back and never a factor.

Denard Robinson is out and even he only had 30 yards on ten runs in week 14. Robinson suddenly seemed like a secret weapon back in week seven when he became a starter and ran for 127 yards and a score on the Browns. He then gained 108 yards on 18 runs versus the Dolphins. But his production decreased every week and he spent his final three games with no scores, two fumbles lost and an average of 33 rush yards per game. He’s not the answer he once seemed to be.

WIDE RECEIVER : Young crew that could produce a decent game but never consistently or reliably. Allen Robinson stepped up the best but was lost after week ten. Cecil Shorts is notable about one in every five games. Allen Hurns has potential but mixes impressive long catches with multi-game stretches of nearly nothing. Marqise Lee came into use more in the later part of the season and turned in 50+ yards n four of the last five games which is remarkable for this crew. In the previous Texans matchup, Lee led the group with five catches for 67 yards and Allen Hurns scored once on his five receptions for 36 yards. Shorts settled for only three yards on two catches.

TIGHT END : Never any reliable fantasy value. Marcedes Lewis and Clay Harbor had the occasional touchdown but all totaled only produced four games with more than 35 yards. Lewis had one of those games in week 14 when he caught three passes for 69 yards.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: No real changes here since just three weeks ago. Played in Houston, this should be no better than the last meeting and Denard Robinson is out. There is no obvious fantasy play here.

Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 29 28 22 26 31 21
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 19 14 31 6 4 6

Houston Texans

1 WAS 17-6 10 BYE —–
2 @OAK 30-14 11 @CLE 23-7
3 @NYG 17-30 12 CIN 13-22
4 BUF 23-17 13 TEN 45-21
5 @DAL 17-20 14 @JAC 27-13
6 IND 28-33 15 @IND 10-17
7 @PIT 23-30 16 BAL 25-13
8 @TEN 30-16 17 JAC —–
9 PHI 21-31  
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Alfred Blue 30,1
RB Lamar Miller 50 4-30
WR DeAndre Hopkins 4-70
WR Cecil Shorts 2-30
PK Nick Novak 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Big win over the Ravens last week should mean the Texans end by winning four of their last five games and prevent a losing season. The offense under new HC Ken Whisenhunt did not make a lot of progress other than just relying on Arian Foster like every other Texans coach has. Ryan Fitzpatrick was a decent interim pick but is not the future and Tom Savage never had enough playing time to measure his chances for 2015. One Foster leaves or breaks down for good, this team will need to be far different. Alfred Blue has sparked some optimism that running back is not an area the team needs to shore up.

QUARTERBACK : The Texans had no problem beating the Jaguars in week 14 and that was with Ryan Fitzpatrick only passing for 135 yards and running in one score. That might happen again here at home with Case Keenum still at the helm. He never scored on the Ravens last week and threw for just 185 yards.

RUNNING BACK : Arian Foster ran for 127 yards and a score on 24 carries in Jacksonville and added 21 yards on two catches. The win was so decisive that Alfred Blue ran in a score as well on his nine carries for 15 yards at the end of the game. For a running back who had questions about a bad back coming into the season, Foster has laid down another remarkable season with 12 touchdowns and nine games with over 90 rushing yards.

WIDE RECEIVER : Andre Johnson began the year unhappy and reportedly asked to be traded in the preseason. His season has been one of decline – only two scores and not one game over 100 yards. He only had four receptions for 17 yards in Jacksonville but has topped 1000 career catches to join an elite crew in the NFL record book. DeAndre Hopkins had a breakout year with six scores and four games over 100 yards including 238 yards versus the Titans. Hopkins only caught four passes for 49 yards in the last win over the Jaguars.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: With Keenum throwing the ball, there is a high probability that the yardage or even scores are not there for the receivers as they were not just three weeks ago. Figure on a monster game by Arian Foster and hope that Alfred Blue doesn’t take the scores.

Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 26 14 21 31 6 2
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 13 28 10 23 30 32

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