Game Predictions & Player Projections - CIN vs IND

Game Predictions & Player Projections - CIN vs IND


Game Predictions & Player Projections - CIN vs IND

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Prediction: CIN 17, IND 27 (Line: IND by 3.5)

UPDATE: A.J. Green is doubtful to play on Sunday because of his concussion so I am removing him from the projections. There is still a chance that he might clear the protocols but he is risky to rely on. He has not practiced other than a limited session. Jermaine Gresham looked iffy this week because of his back but has returned to practice and now is expected to play.

The 10-5-1 Bengals are 5-3 on the road but lost two of their last four games. The 11-5 Colts are 6-2 at home and won five of their last six games. This is a replay of week seven when the Bengals were shutout 27-0 in Indianapolis.

Cincinnati Bengals

1 @BAL 23-16 10 CLE 3-24
2 ATL 24-10 11 @NO 27-10
3 TEN 33-7 12 @HOU 22-13
4 BYE —– 13 @TB 14-13
5 @NE 17-43 14 PIT 21-42
6 CAR 37-37 15 @CLE 30-0
7 @IND 0-27 16 DEN 37-28
8 BAL 27-24 17 @PIT 17-27
9 JAC 33-23  
News | Statistics | Roster
CIN @ IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Andy Dalton 230,1
RB Jeremy Hill 100,1 3-20
RB Giovani Bernard 20 7-60
TE Jermaine Gresham 5-50,1  
WR A.J. Green 5-80,1
WR Mohamed Sanu 6-70
PK Mike Nugent 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: That last loss to the Colts came when A.J. Green was out and the Bengals just collapsed in a game they were never remotely competitive. Losing to the Steelers on the road last week lost the division and set up this road game but this is the same team that was able to beat the Broncos in week 16 – albeit in a home game. The rushing offense is better every week but once again it may come down to the presence or absence of A.J. Green.

QUARTERBACK : Andy Dalton only managed 126 passing yards in Indianapolis in week seven but he’s been better in recent weeks and while the yardage has never been that great this year, he’s thrown for two touchdowns in three of the last four weeks. He’s certainly never had a really big game without a healthy Green there.

RUNNING BACK : The backfield has been in transition for the better and Jeremy Hill has become the primary runner with over 100 yards in each of the last three weeks. Hill was held to only 15 yards on four runs in the last meeting with the Colts but in recent weeks was dramatically more productive. Giovani Bernard takes a back seat as a runner and only gets a handful of carries in recent weeks but he’s done more as a receiver including fielding 12 passes over the last two weeks and scoring once in each game.

WIDE RECEIVER : A.J. Green was already battling a bruised biceps last week when he knocked out of the game with a concussion that could still be an issue this week. I will assume that he is cleared in time but will update as warranted. If you are playing in a contest, Green plays on Sunday early so there would only be the Cowboys-Lions game left to plunder for a replacement should he end up inactive. Green scored six times this year and broke 100 yards on five occasions but has been mostly quiet in the last three weeks in part due to injury.

Mohamed Sanu only managed three catches for 54 yards in that last meeting with the Colts. He’s been a real non-factor for the last five weeks with fewer than 20 yards gained in each game.

TIGHT END : Jermaine Gresham chugged along with around 30 yards in most games but only scored in one all year until the last three weeks when he’s been used in the red zone every week. His yardage remains very low in almost every game but he had a season high of ten catches for 48 yards in the last meeting with the Colts. That could repeat if Green cannot play.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: Aside from a freakish game by Colt McCoy, the Colts have only allowed four passing touchdowns over the other seven home games. The yardage tends to remain low as well and Dalton was already spanked there once this year. Where the Bengals are certain to attack is with Jeremy Hill pounding the ball against the biggest weakness of the Colts offense. Hill is a must start this week but only Green stands out as a good risk if he practices and can play.

Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 24 6 27 20 13 27
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 17 23 5 27 5 27

Indianapolis Colts

1 @DEN 24-31 10 BYE —–
2 PHI 27-30 11 NE  20-42
3 @JAC 44-17 12 JAC 23-3
4 TEN 41-17 13 WAS 49-27
5 BAL 20-13 14 @CLE 25-24
6 @HOU 33-28 15 HOU 17-10
7 CIN 27-0 16 @DAL 7-42
8 @PIT 34-51 17 @TEN 27-10
9 @NYG 40-24  
News | Statistics | Roster
IND vs CIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 20,1 300,2
RB Trent Richardson 30 1-10
RB Dan Heron 30 3-30
TE Dwayne Allen 4-40,1
TE Coby Fleener 4-30
WR T.Y. Hilton 6-100,1
WR Reggie Wayne 3-40
WR Hakeem Nicks 2-40
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Colts won six of their last seven home games and hope to have more healthy bodies back for this game. T.Y. Hilton’s hamstring is better and Reggie Wayne’s groin is not supposed to get in the way. The Colts road record against good teams is going to be an immediate problem next week but they should manage to care of business at home with a healthy team and against an opponent that they already shut out once this year. A.J. Green could make this closer but the cornerbacks are a strength of the defense anyway.

QUARTERBACK : Andrew Luck threw for 344 yards and two scores on the Bengals in week seven which was one of his normal games and one of the worst for the Bengals defense. Luck slowed down terribly in the final two weeks when there was nothing left to win but was on a rule with high yardage and multiple scores in nearly every other game this year.

RUNNING BACK : Ahmad Bradshaw scored on a run and a pass against the Bengals but his replacement Dan Herron has been far less productive. Herron only scored once all year and turns in moderate yardage unless the opponent has a very weak defense. Trent Richardson ran for 77 yards on 14 runs in the last meeting with the Bengals but that reflects running out the clock in a shutout. Richardson scored just once in the last nine games. He been nearly phased out of the offense in recent weeks.

WIDE RECEIVER : Despite the massacre in the last meeting, the wideouts did not do much other than T.Y. Hilton who logged seven catches for 107 yards. The Colts should be back to a full set this week with Hilton, Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks good to go. Nicks has been a bit better in recent weeks when it was expected that Donte Moncrief would see an uptick. The rookie may just be having a traditional slump at the end of the year since he’s not played this many games in a season. This offense mostly moves through Hilton and the tight ends. Anything else is almost incidental since no other wideout has more than three scores against seven touchdowns for Hilton.

TIGHT END : Coby Fleener caught four passes for 64 yards versus the Bengals and Dwayne Allen accounted for three receptions for 52 yards and a score. Allen has been out with a knee problem but already scored eight times this year in just 12 games played. Fleener scored twice last week but Allen was not a factor. The Colts should be getting a healthier Allen back this week and he’s more reliable than Fleener.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Bengals already let Luck have one of his best games against them and allowed over 300 passing yards and multiple touchdowns to each of their last three opponents. The Bengals are very weak against the running backs but the Colts hardly have any studs. Luck, Hilton and both tight ends are the most attractive plays this week though there is a chance that Richardson might get a short touchdown.

Gaining Fantasy Points IND 1 18 7 3 3 16
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 4 30 2 15 12 13

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