Game Predictions & Player Projections - DET vs DAL

Game Predictions & Player Projections - DET vs DAL


Game Predictions & Player Projections - DET vs DAL

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Prediction: DET 20, DAL 34 (Line: DAL by 7)

Hard to deny that the Cowboys have a look of destiny about them in that way that defies explanation in some ways. The 12-4 Cowboys are only 4-4 at home but the 11-5 Lions are 4-4 on the road and Matt Stafford has never beaten a winning record on the road. If the Cowboys lose this one, an entire season of goodwill and renewed promise ends up in the dumpster.

Detroit Lions

1 NYG 35-14 10 MIA 20-16
2 @CAR 7-24 11 @ARI 6-14
3 GB 19-7 12 @NE 9-34
4 @NYJ 24-17 13 CHI 34-17
5 BUF 14-17 14 TB 34-17
6 @MIN 17-3 15 MIN 16-14
7 NO 24-23 16 @CHI 20-14
8 @ATL 22-21 17 @GB 20-30
9 BYE —–  
News | Stats | Roster
DET @ DAL Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Stafford 270,2
RB Reggie Bush 30 5-40
RB Joique Bell 70 4-30,1
WR Calvin Johnson 5-80,1
WR Golden Tate 4-70
PK Matt Prater 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Lions caught a break when Ndamukong Suh won the appeal of his one-game suspension and will be allowed to step out with Tony Romo this week. The Lions defense has been the driving force to their making the playoffs but the only two times that they faced a playoff team in a road game they allowed over 30 points and lost the game. Between the bad mojo of the Cowboys traditional choking this time of year and the Lions even longer history of losing games that matter it seems almost anything could happen here.

QUARTERBACK : While Matthew Stafford posted three touchdowns in Green Bay last week, he had no scores over the three previous away games and his yardage has tended to be high only when facing the worst of secondaries. Stafford has not been nearly as productive this year and that casts a shadow on this being the time he finally breaks out against his poor trend in road games.

RUNNING BACK : Reggie Bush ran for 54 yards and a score on seven carries in Chicago to make it look like he had finally woken up this year but he was back to only 19 yards on five runs in Green Bay along with 22 yards on three catches. Joique Bell remains the primary back with around 60 or or yards each week and a few catches as well. All combined this duo only scored seven times this year and five of those were in home games.

WIDE RECEIVER : The problem with the passing game – aside from a down year from Calvin Johnson – is that whenever Megatron had a good game, it was at home or at least in Chicago. All five 100 yard efforts were in Detroit but at least he did score twice in Green Bay despite being limited to only four receptions for 39 yards on 11 targets. Golden Tate has gone a month now with minimal production and has also been mostly a home game phenomena.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: Nothing to this point suggests that Stafford can throw more than two scores here if that and the Cowboys defense should be primed anyway. The Cowboys will allow rushing scores even in Dallas and higher yardage to teams that use a runner more than 20 times. It all depends on how close the Lions can keep the game. If the Cowboys get an early lead, it would force the Lions to limit the run and mostly focus on finding Calvin Johnson downfield.

Gaining Fantasy Points DET 18 8 9 30 18 9
Preventing Fantasy Points DAL 14 17 4 32 3 16

Dallas Cowboys

1 SF 17-28 10 @JAC 31-17
2 @TEN 26-10 11 BYE —–
3 @STL 34-31 12 @NYG 31-28
4 NO 38-17 13 PHI 10-33
5 HOU 20-17 14 @CHI 41-28
6 @SEA 30-23 15 @PHI 38-27
7 NYG 31-21 16 IND 42-7
8 WAS 17-20 17 @WAS 44-17
9 ARI 17-29  
News | Statistics | Roster
DAL vs DET Rush Catch Pass
QB Tony Romo 250,2
RB DeMarco Murray 100,1 3-20
TE Jason Witten 4-50
WR Dez Bryant 7-90,2
WR Terrance Williams 3-40
WR Cole Beasley 3-30
PK Dan Bailey 2 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: The Cowboys avoided a December collapse which throws off the entire balance of the league. In a month that normally spawns internet memes poking fun at Tony Romo, the Cowboys spend the last four games averaging 41 points per week. DeMarco Murray has transformed from being an always-injured back to turning in the sixth most carries in NFL history while gaining more yardage than a guy named Emmitt Smith. This has been a magical year for the Cowboys and one that fans happily accept without daring to question it.

QUARTERBACK : Tony Romo threw 34 touchdowns in the regular season and had three or more in seven games including six of the most recent nine games. He’s only thrown six touchdowns since the season opener but his yardage is down notably thanks to all those handoffs to DeMarco Murray. Romo topped 300 yards only once all year.

RUNNING BACK : DeMarco Murray ended with 1845 rushing yards this year and ran the ball 392 times after his previous best was only 217. He even played with a broken hand and gained 100 yards and a score in Washington last week. After four seasons, Murray has finally arrived if only for this one season. The offense is now predicated on getting him the ball and his work is by no means over this year.

WIDE RECEIVER : Dez Bryant knows how to turn it up in a contract year with 16 touchdowns this year over 11 different games. His yardage had been solid enough with around 80 yards or so for the last month and a half but only only broke 100 yards in four games and only usually on the road. Terrance Williams scored six times in the first seven weeks but only once since and his yardage has seriously waned in the last two months. Cole Beasley doesn’t catch more than about four passes per game and usually for short yardage but racked up four touchdowns in the last six weeks.

TIGHT END : Jason Witten spent most of his time blocking this year but he comes off back-to-back games with seven catches in each and he scored on the visiting Colts last week. Witten totaled five touchdowns this year but his yardage has generally been more around the 30 to 50 yard mark each week.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Lions are much less formidable away from home and their defense allowed two passing scores to each of the last five road opponents along with higher yardage. They also are far less adept at stopping the run away from Detroit with seven touchdowns given up versus only three in Detroit. No reason to hold back – Romo, Murray, Bryant and Witten starts this week. I like the chance for a defensive score in this one as well.

Gaining Fantasy Points DAL 14 3 11 12 12 22
Preventing Fantasy Points DET 5 10 11 20 1 10

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