Better Than Average (BTA) was developed to show which players were truly better than their peers when the advantage of the schedule was removed. . This is a true 1:1 measurement because it only considers how well players did against all others who faced a particular defense. It counts up three occurrences:
“8” – When a QB produced one of the top 8 game performances for fantasy points allowed by a defense.
“4” – When a QB scored in the top 4 game performances for fantasy points allowed by a defense.
“1” – Who had the best fantasy game against a defense over the past year. There could only by 32 such events since each defense can only allow one “best game”.
BTA – Simply adding up the 1, 4 and 8 values for a numerical expression of how effective a quarterback truly was last year against all other players in his position. The strength of schedule doesn’t matter. Only what a player produced against all other players in that position against that defense. It is a measurement of player ability against the others in his position.
|Multiple “Best Games”|
Andrew Luck’s value is clearly shown with almost half of his games posting the most fantasy points allowed by that defense and three of his games were divisional. That means he had seven of 13 games posting the best game against a defense – more than half of his games.
Philip Rivers shows up better than expected while Matt Stafford, Tom Brady and Tony Romo were much less effective than they have been in previous seasons. Even more disappointing was that Carson Palmer never even had one game in the top eight allowed by that defense. That bodes poorly for 2015 with aging receivers.
Derek Carr was middle of the pack but for a rookie that’s impressive especially considering the level of talent around him. Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles and Zach Mettenberger were grouped much further back than Carr as would be expected. Also interesting was that Drew Brees was very good without once being great. He never had any games where he scored more fantasy points than all other quarterbacks to face that defense. That’s a first for Brees who normally has been one of the most consistently elite players.
|Andrew Luck||30||7||11||12||Tom Brady||14||1||4||9||Alex Smith||7||0||1||6|
|Aaron Rodgers||27||4||10||13||Joe Flacco||13||1||4||8||Kirk Cousins||7||1||2||4|
|Peyton Manning||26||4||9||13||Matthew Stafford||13||0||5||8||Geno Smith||6||1||1||4|
|Philip Rivers||20||2||8||10||Cam Newton||10||2||4||4||Austin Davis||5||0||2||3|
|Drew Brees||19||0||7||12||Andy Dalton||9||0||2||7||Brian Hoyer||5||0||1||4|
|Ben Roethlisberger||18||2||7||9||Colin Kaepernick||9||0||2||7||Teddy Bridgewater||5||0||0||5|
|Russell Wilson||17||2||5||10||Kyle Orton||9||0||3||6||Blake Bortles||4||0||1||3|
|Jay Cutler||16||2||5||9||Derek Carr||8||0||2||6||Drew Stanton||4||0||1||3|
|Matt Ryan||16||1||6||9||Josh McCown||8||0||1||7||Zach Mettenberger||4||0||1||3|
|Ryan Tannehill||16||2||5||9||Mark Sanchez||8||0||1||7||Carson Palmer||3||0||0||3|
|Eli Manning||15||0||4||11||Nick Foles||8||0||3||5||Mike Glennon||3||0||0||3|
|Tony Romo||15||0||5||10||Ryan Fitzpatrick||8||1||2||5|