Welcome to 2015. My New Years’ resolution is to take down a high five-figure or six-figure tourney this coming year. I wouldn’t complain about winning a Million dollar tourney either, but I figure why get greedy.
This week is a good week to get started on loading your wallet for the coming year. Not to mention that you can set yourself up to help pay all those holiday bills when they start arriving in the next couple weeks. From this point on you are not looking to select a roster from over 250 possibilities. Your player pool is much lower. At most you are looking at 85 possible players (including defenses and kickers) to choose from. Factoring out those two positions, there are realistically only 45 players to choose from.
Since the pool of legit options to choose from is so thin, you have to be dead, solid perfect to win the huge bucks in the GPPs this week. That said if you can play it smart then you can at the very least double your investment without much effort.
Now obviously you can’t have all of the top seven stars, so you will need to land 4-5 of the top ten players (by salary and projection) and 2-3 of the cheaper options. Do not – I REPEAT DO NOT – fade all of the big buck players. You will not stand a chance without at least three of them. I also want to make it clear that even though I don’t rank defenses here, I highly recommend Carolina this week. Their price tag will be close enough to the rest that they will be worth the investment.
DraftKings is featuring two GPPs with a six-figure payout to first. Both of which were under 25% enrollment as of New Years Day. When we get to playoff time a healthy dose of casual DFS players fade into non-existence. The combination of the holiday week, the Saturday games, and the regular season-long fantasy season being over will vaporize the DFS player pool to only the truest of degenerates. This typically leaves excessive overlay. Check in early Saturday morning to verify which of these tourneys are still sitting at 70% or less – if you can get a rub like that – that is like they are paying you to play. At full-sell-out, this one would pay 2X to the top 20%. If it closes at 70%, than you will be looking at 29% of the field doubling their investment.
FanDuel is once again offering their Saturday Million. It currently pays six-digits to the top two slots. It is the only NFL tourney they are offering paying more than 100K to first. Unfortunately, it is also at more than twice the registration as the DK tourneys listed above. At this pace it will likely fill up by Saturday. I’m actually more interested in their $200/entry – $350K NFL Monster contest. This one is currently at just under 30% enrollment and at $200 per entry your casual players will bypass this one. The thing that makes this so juicy is that payout for this tourney is nearly 1-in-5. That’s right 19% of entrants will be guaranteed at least $500 (2.5X) coming back and that is assuming that all 1944 slots sell out. If this tourney closes at only 70% (which could likely happen) – than the $500 payout level would be greater than 1-in-4 (26%). Heck the $1000 (5X) payout level would even be at a “get-me-some” 3.6%.
Fantasy Score lacks the big dollar payouts of the two big ‘uns, but they also have much smaller fields to navigate and similar payout ratios. Since their player field is much smaller, it is quite likely that both of their GPPs sell out. So while their payout ratios are comparable to DK/FD, you don’t get the likelihood of overlay.