Fantasy Strength of Schedule: Receivers

Fantasy Strength of Schedule: Receivers

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Fantasy Strength of Schedule: Receivers

2014 Receiving Fantasy Points
Allowed
Per Game
20 Best
Matchups
20 Worst
Matchups
IND 41.3 @SF 29.7
CHI 40.9 @ATL 29.5
BAL 40.5 GB 29.3
@PHI 39.9 @CIN 29.3
WAS 39.5 @DET 29.2
@STL 38.5 @BUF 28.4
@WAS 37.3 @KC 28.4
TB 36.2 @BAL 28.2
CAR 35.7 OAK 27.8
@PIT 35.5 KC 27.7
@ARI 35.4 DEN 27.4
@GB 35.3 CIN 27.2
SF 35.1 @SD 26.5
NYJ 35.0 @CAR 26.5
MIN 34.9 STL 25.7
@NYJ 34.8 BUF 25.3
@CHI 34.5 @MIN 24.9
ATL 34.4 @SEA 24.9
ARI 34.2 @IND 23.9
PIT 34.2 SEA 22.6

The Strength of Schedule takes the results from all defensive performances last season and then applies the stats allowed against quarterbacks, running backs and receivers to determine who will have the easier schedule. This is determined by taking the best and worst venues for offenses to face and comparing those statistics allowed against the current NFL schedule for each team. Unlike strength of schedules used during the regular season which only considers the 32 defenses, this look back at last year considers the 64 venues that can happen – facing each defense either home or away.

To remove the effects of the really bad or good odd game, defensive performances last year have their best and worst game removed before determining their average fantasy points allowed for each position.

Three different views are given below – Weeks 1 to 6 show what players will face as they start the season. Weeks 1 through 16 are shown for a full season view and weeks 14 to 16 show the most common weeks for fantasy playoffs. Below that is the NFL schedule marked for each team to show when they have good (green) or bad (red) match-ups. Bye weeks are considered a bad matchup since the player is unavailable for your fantasy team that week. This is important especially considering the Dorey Rule – “draft as if the season only lasted the first six weeks”.

This analysis considers both tight ends and wide receivers awarded 0.1 points per received yard and six point touchdowns.

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Best Schedules:

Giants – The Giants need a rebound after a 6-10 season and gain the best schedule for receivers. Nice timing since Odell Beckham Jr. didn’t really start until mid-season in 2014 and yet laid down eye-popping stats. With a mish-mash of running backs, Eli Manning will again turn to the pass and gets Victor Cruz back as well. While some players suffer sophomore slumps, Beckham already looks better than that and gets a sweet schedule for his first full season.

Cowboys – DeMarco Murray returned the offense to a rush-heavy attack last year with great success. But now he’s an Eagle and the Cowboys start over with backfield assignments. The offensive line remains formidable and any back in the offense is going to do well. That will – at least by plan – depress the amount of throwing that Tony Romo does but at least he gets an easier schedule than last year and Dez Bryant remains one of the top wideouts in the NFL.

Saints – Losing Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills seems to strongly support the stated plan to move back towards a more balanced offense and more rushing. But the aging Marques Colston (32) will always figure in and the second-year wideout Brandin Cooks should be the major beneficiary of both an increased workload and a lighter schedule.

Worst Schedules:

Broncos – While it is always bothersome to have the worst schedule in the league, the reality is that at most it will impact secondary receivers much more than Demaryius Thomas who will always figure in prominently. The Broncos say they want to pass less this year anyway and a better rushing effort takes the pressure off the receivers. The schedule has to be at least a minor concern for all but Thomas.

Steelers – This is much like the Broncos in that the primary wideout – Antonio Brown – really has little to worry about and the Steelers have a tough schedule every season anyway thanks to playing in the AFC North. It is worth noting that the Steelers end their year with @CIN, DEN and @BAL. That is not going to help Martavis Bryant or Markus Wheaton.

Vikings – An unusually tough schedule looms for the Vikings and that should challenge Teddy Bridgewater to take a big step up this year. Mike Wallace comes over as the veteran presence and Charles Johnson surprised last year. But Cordarrelle Patterson has been a bust so far and the schedule isn’t going to help any of these wideouts.

Weeks 1 to 16 (Full Season) Weeks 1 to 6 (Dorey Rule) Weeks 14 to 16 (FF Playoffs)
  SOS Good Bad   SOS Good Bad   SOS Good Bad
NYG 4 7 3 NO 3 4 1 BUF 2 2 0
DAL 3 6 3 NYG 3 4 1 DET 2 2 0
NO 3 6 3 PIT 3 4 1 JAC 2 2 0
TB 3 6 3 SEA 3 4 1 MIN 2 2 0
ATL 2 5 3 SF 3 4 1 TB 2 2 0
MIA 2 6 4 STL 2 4 2 GB 1 1 0
SF 2 8 6 ATL 1 1 0 NE 1 1 0
STL 2 8 6 DAL 1 2 1 TEN 1 1 0
BUF 1 4 3 PHI 1 2 1 ARI 1 2 1
TEN 1 4 3 ARI 1 3 2 DAL 1 2 1
SEA 1 7 6 BUF 0 1 1 PHI 1 2 1
JAC 0 4 4 IND 0 1 1 WAS 1 2 1
NE 0 4 4 JAC 0 1 1 IND 0 0 0
PHI 0 5 5 TB 0 1 1 NO 0 0 0
ARI 0 7 7 DEN 0 2 2 NYJ 0 0 0
CAR -1 3 4 MIA 0 2 2 ATL 0 1 1
WAS -1 4 5 SD 0 2 2 CAR 0 1 1
NYJ -2 1 3 BAL -1 1 2 CHI 0 1 1
IND -2 3 5 NYJ -1 1 2 CIN 0 1 1
OAK -2 5 7 TEN -1 1 2 MIA 0 1 1
DET -2 6 8 WAS -1 1 2 NYG 0 1 1
BAL -3 3 6 HOU -1 2 3 STL 0 1 1
CHI -3 6 9 KC -1 2 3 HOU -1 0 1
CLE -3 6 9 OAK -1 2 3 KC -1 0 1
CIN -4 3 7 CAR -2 0 2 OAK -1 0 1
HOU -4 3 7 NE -2 1 3 SD -1 0 1
KC -4 3 7 DET -2 2 4 BAL -1 1 2
PIT -4 5 9 MIN -3 0 3 CLE -1 1 2
GB -5 3 8 CLE -3 1 4 DEN -1 1 2
MIN -5 3 8 GB -3 1 4 SEA -2 0 2
SD -5 3 8 CIN -4 0 4 SF -2 0 2
DEN -5 4 9 CHI -4 1 5 PIT -3 0 3

Week – By – Week

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
ARI NO @CHI SF STL @DET @PIT BAL @CLE BYE @SEA CIN @SF @STL MIN @PHI GB
ATL PHI @NYG @DAL HOU WAS @NO @TEN TB @SF BYE IND MIN @TB @CAR @JAC CAR
BAL @DEN @OAK CIN @PIT CLE @SF @ARI SD BYE JAC STL @CLE @MIA SEA KC PIT
BUF IND NE @MIA NYG @TEN CIN @JAC BYE MIA @NYJ @NE @KC HOU @PHI @WAS DAL
CAR @JAC HOU NO @TB BYE @SEA PHI IND GB @TEN WAS @DAL @NO ATL @NYG @ATL
CHI GB ARI @SEA OAK @KC @DET BYE MIN @SD @STL DEN @GB SF WAS @MIN @TB
CIN @OAK SD @BAL KC SEA @BUF BYE @PIT CLE HOU @ARI STL @CLE PIT @SF @DEN
CLE @NYJ TEN OAK @SD @BAL DEN @STL ARI @CIN @PIT BYE BAL CIN SF @SEA @KC
DAL NYG @PHI ATL @NO NE BYE @NYG SEA PHI @TB @MIA CAR @WAS @GB NYJ @BUF
DEN BAL @KC @DET MIN @OAK @CLE BYE GB @IND KC @CHI NE @SD OAK @PIT CIN
DET @SD @MIN DEN @SEA ARI CHI MIN @KC BYE @GB OAK PHI GB @STL @NO SF
GB @CHI SEA KC @SF STL SD BYE @DEN @CAR DET @MIN CHI @DET DAL @OAK @ARI
HOU KC @CAR TB @ATL IND @JAC @MIA TEN BYE @CIN NYJ NO @BUF NE @IND @TEN
IND @BUF NYJ @TEN JAC @HOU NE NO @CAR DEN BYE @ATL TB @PIT @JAC HOU @MIA
JAC CAR MIA @NE @IND @TB HOU BUF BYE @NYJ @BAL TEN SD @TEN IND ATL @NO
KC @HOU DEN @GB @CIN CHI @MIN PIT DET BYE @DEN @SD BUF @OAK SD @BAL CLE
MIA @WAS @JAC BUF NYJ BYE @TEN HOU @NE @BUF @PHI DAL @NYJ BAL NYG @SD IND
MIN @SF DET SD @DEN BYE KC @DET @CHI STL @OAK GB @ATL SEA @ARI CHI NYG
NE PIT @BUF JAC BYE @DAL @IND NYJ MIA WAS @NYG BUF @DEN PHI @HOU TEN @NYJ
NO @ARI TB @CAR DAL @PHI ATL @IND NYG TEN @WAS BYE @HOU CAR @TB DET JAC
NYG @DAL ATL WAS @BUF SF @PHI DAL @NO @TB NE BYE @WAS NYJ @MIA CAR @MIN
NYJ CLE @IND PHI @MIA BYE WAS @NE @OAK JAC BUF @HOU MIA @NYG TEN @DAL NE
OAK CIN BAL @CLE @CHI DEN BYE @SD NYJ @PIT MIN @DET @TEN KC @DEN GB SD
PHI @ATL DAL @NYJ @WAS NO NYG @CAR BYE @DAL MIA TB @DET @NE BUF ARI WAS
PIT @NE SF @STL BAL @SD ARI @KC CIN OAK CLE BYE @SEA IND @CIN DEN @BAL
SD DET @CIN @MIN CLE PIT @GB OAK @BAL CHI BYE KC @JAC DEN @KC MIA @OAK
SEA @STL @GB CHI DET @CIN CAR @SF @DAL BYE ARI SF PIT @MIN @BAL CLE STL
SF MIN @PIT @ARI GB @NYG BAL SEA @STL ATL BYE @SEA ARI @CHI @CLE CIN @DET
STL SEA @WAS PIT @ARI @GB BYE CLE SF @MIN CHI @BAL @CIN ARI DET TB @SEA
TB TEN @NO @HOU CAR JAC BYE @WAS @ATL NYG DAL @PHI @IND ATL NO @STL CHI
TEN @TB @CLE IND BYE BUF MIA ATL @HOU @NO CAR @JAC OAK JAC @NYJ @NE HOU
WAS MIA STL @NYG PHI @ATL @NYJ TB BYE @NE NO @CAR NYG DAL @CHI BUF @PHI

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