Fantasy Strength of Schedule: Running Backs

Fantasy Strength of Schedule: Running Backs

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Fantasy Strength of Schedule: Running Backs

2014 Rushing Fantasy Points
Allowed
Per Game
20 Best
Matchups
20 Worst
Matchups
OAK 26.9 KC 18.1
ATL 26.9 @ARI 17.6
@CIN 26.4 @WAS 17.3
TB 26.2 @DEN 17.2
JAC 26.0 WAS 17.0
@TEN 25.4 HOU 16.7
@NO 25.2 SEA 16.6
@IND 24.8 @KC 16.5
TEN 24.8 @SEA 16.2
NO 24.3 @SD 16.1
@OAK 24.1 @GB 16.0
@MIN 24.0 ARI 14.9
PHI 23.8 @STL 14.9
NYG 23.6 PIT 14.8
@CLE 23.5 @SF 14.6
@ATL 23.2 BAL 14.1
@DAL 22.7 @BUF 13.5
@CHI 22.6 @BAL 13.2
NYJ 22.2 @DET 13.0
@JAC 22.0 @NYJ 11.5

The Strength of Schedule takes the results from all defensive performances last season and then applies the stats allowed against quarterbacks, running backs and receivers to determine who will have the easier schedule. This is determined by taking the best and worst venues for offenses to face and comparing those statistics allowed against the current NFL schedule for each team. Unlike strength of schedules used during the regular season which only considers the 32 defenses, this look back at last year considers the 64 venues that can happen – facing each defense either home or away.

To remove the effects of the really bad or good odd game, defensive performances last year have their best and worst game removed before determining their average fantasy points allowed for each position.

Three different views are given below – Weeks 1 to 6 show what players will face as they start the season. Weeks 1 through 16 are shown for a full season view and weeks 14 to 16 show the most common weeks for fantasy playoffs. Below that is the NFL schedule marked for each team to show when they have good (green) or bad (red) match-ups. Bye weeks are considered a bad matchup since the player is unavailable for your fantasy team that week. This is important especially considering the Dorey Rule – “draft as if the season only lasted the first six weeks”.

This analysis considers running backs awarded 0.1 points per rushed or received yard and six point touchdowns.

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Best Schedules:

Arian Foster – When there are no reception points involved, Foster gets the top schedule and he already has seen improvement in the Bill O’Brien scheme when he went rose to a 4.8 YPC last year and enters his 29th year – maybe the final hurrah for this fantasy difference maker.

Chris Johnson/Chris Ivory – The Jets get a softer rushing schedule and are expected to run plenty in the new Chan Gailey scheme but the reality is that they had a great schedule last year and never did much with it. While Johnson may have one more season left in his 30 year old legs, the last two seasons says he probably already done.

Frank Gore – The 32-year old Gore takes his swan song in Indianapolis and he was never used much as a receiver in the last five years anyway. He’ll get to punch in touchdowns and help move the sticks in an Andrew Luck offense that should give him even more chances than the 49ers could last year. A lighter schedule only helps him even more.

Worst Schedules:

Jeremy Hill – He ended 2014 with sever very nice games and while his schedule is poor this year, the reality is that it wasn’t that great last year. And two of his biggest games went against the Steelers and Browns who he faces twice every year. It is troublesome that he ends up with three straight bad venues during the fantasy playoffs.

Matt Forte – While he gets added yardage from receiving, that may not be as much as his record 808 yards last season with the new coaching regime. He also enjoyed a far lighter schedule in 2014. Forte is still a top ten back without a doubt but a chance in offense, a tougher schedule and no reception points makes him a riskier pick for 2015.

Tre Mason – His rookie season really only had two good games and those were at home against non-divisional opponents. Now he’ll have to face five straight bad venues and a bye to start the season and then end in fantasy playoff championships playing in Seattle. Makes a sophomore breakout far more challenging.

Weeks 1 to 16 (Full Season) Weeks 1 to 6 (Dorey Rule) Weeks 14 to 16 (FF Playoffs)
  SOS Good Bad   SOS Good Bad   SOS Good Bad
HOU 6 9 3 BUF 2 2 0 CAR 2 2 0
TB 5 8 3 DAL 2 3 1 HOU 2 2 0
NYJ 4 6 2 HOU 2 3 1 JAC 2 2 0
WAS 4 6 2 IND 2 3 1 NYJ 2 2 0
IND 4 7 3 TB 2 3 1 ATL 1 1 0
CAR 4 8 4 ARI 1 2 1 DEN 1 1 0
NO 3 6 3 KC 1 2 1 NO 1 1 0
TEN 3 6 3 NO 1 2 1 NYG 1 1 0
ATL 2 6 4 WAS 1 2 1 WAS 1 1 0
JAC 1 5 4 ATL 1 3 2 ARI 0 0 0
NYG 1 5 4 MIA 1 3 2 CHI 0 1 1
DAL 0 5 5 PHI 1 3 2 DET 0 1 1
NE 0 6 6 JAC 0 1 1 GB 0 1 1
DEN -1 5 6 TEN 0 1 1 IND 0 1 1
PHI -1 5 6 NYG 0 2 2 MIA 0 1 1
BUF -2 3 5 NYJ 0 2 2 MIN 0 1 1
OAK -2 4 6 OAK 0 2 2 NE 0 1 1
SD -2 5 7 SD 0 2 2 PIT 0 1 1
ARI -3 3 6 NE 0 3 3 SF 0 1 1
KC -3 3 6 BAL -1 1 2 STL 0 1 1
DET -3 4 7 SEA -1 1 2 TB 0 1 1
MIA -3 4 7 CAR -1 2 3 BUF -1 0 1
MIN -3 4 7 CLE -1 2 3 KC -1 0 1
BAL -4 3 7 DEN -1 2 3 OAK -1 0 1
GB -4 3 7 SF -2 0 2 SEA -1 0 1
SEA -4 3 7 DET -2 1 3 DAL -1 1 2
SF -5 3 8 GB -2 1 3 SD -1 1 2
PIT -6 2 8 CHI -3 1 4 CLE -2 0 2
CLE -6 3 9 CIN -3 1 4 PHI -2 0 2
STL -6 3 9 MIN -4 0 4 TEN -2 0 2
CHI -7 2 9 PIT -4 0 4 BAL -3 0 3
CIN -8 2 10 STL -6 0 6 CIN -3 0 3

Week – By – Week

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
ARI NO @CHI SF STL @DET @PIT BAL @CLE BYE @SEA CIN @SF @STL MIN @PHI GB
ATL PHI @NYG @DAL HOU WAS @NO @TEN TB @SF BYE IND MIN @TB @CAR @JAC CAR
BAL @DEN @OAK CIN @PIT CLE @SF @ARI SD BYE JAC STL @CLE @MIA SEA KC PIT
BUF IND NE @MIA NYG @TEN CIN @JAC BYE MIA @NYJ @NE @KC HOU @PHI @WAS DAL
CAR @JAC HOU NO @TB BYE @SEA PHI IND GB @TEN WAS @DAL @NO ATL @NYG @ATL
CHI GB ARI @SEA OAK @KC @DET BYE MIN @SD @STL DEN @GB SF WAS @MIN @TB
CIN @OAK SD @BAL KC SEA @BUF BYE @PIT CLE HOU @ARI STL @CLE PIT @SF @DEN
CLE @NYJ TEN OAK @SD @BAL DEN @STL ARI @CIN @PIT BYE BAL CIN SF @SEA @KC
DAL NYG @PHI ATL @NO NE BYE @NYG SEA PHI @TB @MIA CAR @WAS @GB NYJ @BUF
DEN BAL @KC @DET MIN @OAK @CLE BYE GB @IND KC @CHI NE @SD OAK @PIT CIN
DET @SD @MIN DEN @SEA ARI CHI MIN @KC BYE @GB OAK PHI GB @STL @NO SF
GB @CHI SEA KC @SF STL SD BYE @DEN @CAR DET @MIN CHI @DET DAL @OAK @ARI
HOU KC @CAR TB @ATL IND @JAC @MIA TEN BYE @CIN NYJ NO @BUF NE @IND @TEN
IND @BUF NYJ @TEN JAC @HOU NE NO @CAR DEN BYE @ATL TB @PIT @JAC HOU @MIA
JAC CAR MIA @NE @IND @TB HOU BUF BYE @NYJ @BAL TEN SD @TEN IND ATL @NO
KC @HOU DEN @GB @CIN CHI @MIN PIT DET BYE @DEN @SD BUF @OAK SD @BAL CLE
MIA @WAS @JAC BUF NYJ BYE @TEN HOU @NE @BUF @PHI DAL @NYJ BAL NYG @SD IND
MIN @SF DET SD @DEN BYE KC @DET @CHI STL @OAK GB @ATL SEA @ARI CHI NYG
NE PIT @BUF JAC BYE @DAL @IND NYJ MIA WAS @NYG BUF @DEN PHI @HOU TEN @NYJ
NO @ARI TB @CAR DAL @PHI ATL @IND NYG TEN @WAS BYE @HOU CAR @TB DET JAC
NYG @DAL ATL WAS @BUF SF @PHI DAL @NO @TB NE BYE @WAS NYJ @MIA CAR @MIN
NYJ CLE @IND PHI @MIA BYE WAS @NE @OAK JAC BUF @HOU MIA @NYG TEN @DAL NE
OAK CIN BAL @CLE @CHI DEN BYE @SD NYJ @PIT MIN @DET @TEN KC @DEN GB SD
PHI @ATL DAL @NYJ @WAS NO NYG @CAR BYE @DAL MIA TB @DET @NE BUF ARI WAS
PIT @NE SF @STL BAL @SD ARI @KC CIN OAK CLE BYE @SEA IND @CIN DEN @BAL
SD DET @CIN @MIN CLE PIT @GB OAK @BAL CHI BYE KC @JAC DEN @KC MIA @OAK
SEA @STL @GB CHI DET @CIN CAR @SF @DAL BYE ARI SF PIT @MIN @BAL CLE STL
SF MIN @PIT @ARI GB @NYG BAL SEA @STL ATL BYE @SEA ARI @CHI @CLE CIN @DET
STL SEA @WAS PIT @ARI @GB BYE CLE SF @MIN CHI @BAL @CIN ARI DET TB @SEA
TB TEN @NO @HOU CAR JAC BYE @WAS @ATL NYG DAL @PHI @IND ATL NO @STL CHI
TEN @TB @CLE IND BYE BUF MIA ATL @HOU @NO CAR @JAC OAK JAC @NYJ @NE HOU
WAS MIA STL @NYG PHI @ATL @NYJ TB BYE @NE NO @CAR NYG DAL @CHI BUF @PHI

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