Fantasy Strength of Schedule: Running Backs with PPR

Fantasy Strength of Schedule: Running Backs with PPR

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Fantasy Strength of Schedule: Running Backs with PPR

2014 Rushing Fantasy Points
Allowed
Per Game
20 Best
Matchups
20 Worst
Matchups
TB 33.9 IND 22.9
JAC 33.0 @TB 22.8
ATL 32.0 KC 22.0
@CIN 31.4 @ARI 21.9
@IND 31.0 @WAS 21.8
OAK 30.8 HOU 21.8
@NO 30.1 SEA 21.6
@OAK 30.0 WAS 21.4
@ATL 29.5 @SD 21.1
@CHI 29.4 @GB 20.4
@TEN 29.0 @STL 20.0
@MIN 28.9 @KC 19.9
NO 28.8 @DET 19.9
TEN 28.6 ARI 19.8
CIN 28.4 BAL 19.7
PHI 28.4 PIT 18.9
@JAC 28.3 @SF 18.6
@PIT 28.3 @BAL 18.2
@CLE 28.2 @BUF 17.6
NYG 27.7 @NYJ 15.6

The Strength of Schedule takes the results from all defensive performances last season and then applies the stats allowed against quarterbacks, running backs and receivers to determine who will have the easier schedule. This is determined by taking the best and worst venues for offenses to face and comparing those statistics allowed against the current NFL schedule for each team. Unlike strength of schedules used during the regular season which only considers the 32 defenses, this look back at last year considers the 64 venues that can happen – facing each defense either home or away.

To remove the effects of the really bad or good odd game, defensive performances last year have their best and worst game removed before determining their average fantasy points allowed for each position.

Three different views are given below – Weeks 1 to 6 show what players will face as they start the season. Weeks 1 through 16 are shown for a full season view and weeks 14 to 16 show the most common weeks for fantasy playoffs. Below that is the NFL schedule marked for each team to show when they have good (green) or bad (red) match-ups. Bye weeks are considered a bad matchup since the player is unavailable for your fantasy team that week. This is important especially considering the Dorey Rule – “draft as if the season only lasted the first six weeks”.

Bye weeks are considered bad to help better portray what to expect in the first six weeks for those who will miss a game from a bye.

This analysis considers running backs awarded 0.1 points per rushed or received yard and six point touchdowns and one point per reception.

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Best Schedules:

Tampa Bay – Doug Martin should start again but Charles Simms gets a do-over on his injured rookie season and that will water down what any back does in Tampa Bay. But at least the schedule is the lightest in the NFL so Martin should at least remain fantasy relevant and maybe even make some inroads on a return to his outstanding rookie year.

Alfred Morris – The second season with Jon Gruden isn’t likely to see any uptick in rushing for Morris who had a career low 265 carries last year along with a 4.1 YPC. But at least the Redskins only face a top 20 venue twice all year while facing six of the easiest defenses to beat.

Arian Foster – As usual Foster missed time in 2014 but still managed a 4.8 YPC and was a fantasy gem in most games that he was able to play. The Texans go against bottom 20 defensive venues in half of their games next year and will continue to rely on Foster for so long as he can remain on the field.

Worst Schedules:

Matt Forte – He swings from one of the lightest schedules in 2014 to the toughest in 2015 while learning a new offense. But John Fox will no doubt use Forte plenty and his dual role as a receiver will likely come into play even more this year. Still it is a little troubling to see such a large variation in schedule from last year to this year.

Jeremy Hill – He had a tremendous rookie campaign and while it is cause for concern that his schedule looks so tough, realize that it isn’t all that much worse than last year. His slate of games remains challenging throughout his season so what you get in the first month should be the same throughout.

Le’Veon Bell – He ended the 2014 season on a torrid streak and overall his schedule is only slightly worse than it was last year. Missing his first three games is not going to help. Bell will be an interesting draft pick this year and his schedule dropping down a notch won’t make him any easier to accurately gauge.

Weeks 1 to 16 (Full Season) Weeks 1 to 6 (Dorey Rule) Weeks 14 to 16 (FF Playoffs)
  SOS Good Bad   SOS Good Bad   SOS Good Bad
TB 5 8 3 ARI 2 3 1 DEN 3 3 0
WAS 4 6 2 BAL 2 3 1 CAR 2 2 0
IND 4 7 3 BUF 2 3 1 HOU 2 2 0
HOU 4 8 4 DAL 2 3 1 ATL 1 1 0
NYJ 3 5 2 TB 2 3 1 NYG 1 1 0
NO 2 6 4 IND 1 2 1 NYJ 1 1 0
CAR 2 7 5 KC 1 2 1 STL 1 1 0
TEN 1 6 5 NO 1 2 1 WAS 1 1 0
DEN 1 7 6 WAS 1 2 1 JAC 1 2 1
ARI 0 5 5 HOU 1 3 2 SF 1 2 1
OAK 0 5 5 OAK 1 3 2 ARI 0 0 0
NE -1 4 5 PHI 1 3 2 OAK 0 0 0
ATL -1 5 6 ATL 0 2 2 DET 0 1 1
BAL -1 5 6 MIA 0 2 2 GB 0 1 1
JAC -1 5 6 NYJ 0 2 2 IND 0 1 1
SD -1 5 6 SD 0 2 2 MIN 0 1 1
KC -2 3 5 DET -1 1 2 NE 0 1 1
NYG -2 3 5 JAC -1 1 2 NO 0 1 1
BUF -2 4 6 NYG -1 1 2 PIT 0 1 1
DAL -2 4 6 SEA -1 1 2 SD 0 1 1
DET -2 4 6 SF -1 1 2 TB 0 1 1
MIN -2 4 6 CAR -1 2 3 BUF -1 0 1
PHI -2 4 6 CLE -1 2 3 CLE -1 0 1
SF -2 5 7 DEN -1 2 3 KC -1 0 1
GB -3 3 6 NE -1 2 3 SEA -1 0 1
CLE -3 5 8 CHI -2 1 3 CHI -1 1 2
SEA -5 2 7 GB -2 1 3 MIA -1 1 2
MIA -5 3 8 TEN -2 1 3 CIN -2 0 2
PIT -5 3 8 MIN -3 0 3 DAL -2 0 2
STL -5 3 8 CIN -3 1 4 PHI -2 0 2
CIN -6 3 9 PIT -4 0 4 TEN -2 0 2
CHI -7 2 9 STL -6 0 6 BAL -3 0 3

Week – By – Week

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
ARI NO @CHI SF STL @DET @PIT BAL @CLE BYE @SEA CIN @SF @STL MIN @PHI GB
ATL PHI @NYG @DAL HOU WAS @NO @TEN TB @SF BYE IND MIN @TB @CAR @JAC CAR
BAL @DEN @OAK CIN @PIT CLE @SF @ARI SD BYE JAC STL @CLE @MIA SEA KC PIT
BUF IND NE @MIA NYG @TEN CIN @JAC BYE MIA @NYJ @NE @KC HOU @PHI @WAS DAL
CAR @JAC HOU NO @TB BYE @SEA PHI IND GB @TEN WAS @DAL @NO ATL @NYG @ATL
CHI GB ARI @SEA OAK @KC @DET BYE MIN @SD @STL DEN @GB SF WAS @MIN @TB
CIN @OAK SD @BAL KC SEA @BUF BYE @PIT CLE HOU @ARI STL @CLE PIT @SF @DEN
CLE @NYJ TEN OAK @SD @BAL DEN @STL ARI @CIN @PIT BYE BAL CIN SF @SEA @KC
DAL NYG @PHI ATL @NO NE BYE @NYG SEA PHI @TB @MIA CAR @WAS @GB NYJ @BUF
DEN BAL @KC @DET MIN @OAK @CLE BYE GB @IND KC @CHI NE @SD OAK @PIT CIN
DET @SD @MIN DEN @SEA ARI CHI MIN @KC BYE @GB OAK PHI GB @STL @NO SF
GB @CHI SEA KC @SF STL SD BYE @DEN @CAR DET @MIN CHI @DET DAL @OAK @ARI
HOU KC @CAR TB @ATL IND @JAC @MIA TEN BYE @CIN NYJ NO @BUF NE @IND @TEN
IND @BUF NYJ @TEN JAC @HOU NE NO @CAR DEN BYE @ATL TB @PIT @JAC HOU @MIA
JAC CAR MIA @NE @IND @TB HOU BUF BYE @NYJ @BAL TEN SD @TEN IND ATL @NO
KC @HOU DEN @GB @CIN CHI @MIN PIT DET BYE @DEN @SD BUF @OAK SD @BAL CLE
MIA @WAS @JAC BUF NYJ BYE @TEN HOU @NE @BUF @PHI DAL @NYJ BAL NYG @SD IND
MIN @SF DET SD @DEN BYE KC @DET @CHI STL @OAK GB @ATL SEA @ARI CHI NYG
NE PIT @BUF JAC BYE @DAL @IND NYJ MIA WAS @NYG BUF @DEN PHI @HOU TEN @NYJ
NO @ARI TB @CAR DAL @PHI ATL @IND NYG TEN @WAS BYE @HOU CAR @TB DET JAC
NYG @DAL ATL WAS @BUF SF @PHI DAL @NO @TB NE BYE @WAS NYJ @MIA CAR @MIN
NYJ CLE @IND PHI @MIA BYE WAS @NE @OAK JAC BUF @HOU MIA @NYG TEN @DAL NE
OAK CIN BAL @CLE @CHI DEN BYE @SD NYJ @PIT MIN @DET @TEN KC @DEN GB SD
PHI @ATL DAL @NYJ @WAS NO NYG @CAR BYE @DAL MIA TB @DET @NE BUF ARI WAS
PIT @NE SF @STL BAL @SD ARI @KC CIN OAK CLE BYE @SEA IND @CIN DEN @BAL
SD DET @CIN @MIN CLE PIT @GB OAK @BAL CHI BYE KC @JAC DEN @KC MIA @OAK
SEA @STL @GB CHI DET @CIN CAR @SF @DAL BYE ARI SF PIT @MIN @BAL CLE STL
SF MIN @PIT @ARI GB @NYG BAL SEA @STL ATL BYE @SEA ARI @CHI @CLE CIN @DET
STL SEA @WAS PIT @ARI @GB BYE CLE SF @MIN CHI @BAL @CIN ARI DET TB @SEA
TB TEN @NO @HOU CAR JAC BYE @WAS @ATL NYG DAL @PHI @IND ATL NO @STL CHI
TEN @TB @CLE IND BYE BUF MIA ATL @HOU @NO CAR @JAC OAK JAC @NYJ @NE HOU
WAS MIA STL @NYG PHI @ATL @NYJ TB BYE @NE NO @CAR NYG DAL @CHI BUF @PHI

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