Game Predictions & Player Projections - MIA vs. WAS

Game Predictions & Player Projections - MIA vs. WAS


Game Predictions & Player Projections - MIA vs. WAS

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Prediction: MIA 31, WAS 20 (Line: MIA by 3)

The Dolphins finished 2014 at 8-8 and went 4-4 on the road. Joe Philbin enters his fourth season as the head coach while Bill Lazor enters his second year as the offensive coordinator. The receiving corps has been completely remade for 2015 and promises to be a definite step up for the offense.

The Redskins were only 4-12 during Jay Gruden’s first season as head coach and were just 3-5 at home. The personnel is largely the same aside from drafting running back Matt Jones in the third round but the team has been in constant upheaval all year with questions about quarterback. That issue has been decided finally but little on this team speaks to consistency or promise so far.

Have to like the Fins coming in with a more harmonious team though their receivers are all new.

Miami Dolphins

1 @WAS —— 10 @PHI ——
2 @JAC —— 11 DAL ——
3 BUF —— 12 @NYJ ——
4 NYJ —— 13 BAL ——
5 BYE —— 14 NYG ——
6 @TEN —— 15 @SD ——
7 HOU —— 16 IND ——
8 @NE —— 17 NE ——
9 @BUF ——  
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA @ WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Tannehill 20 270,2
WR Greg Jennings 2-20
WR Jarvis Landry 8-80,1
WR DeVante Parker 4-60
WR Kenny Stills 2-40
TE Jordan Cameron 5-50,1
PK Andrew Franks 1 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: The new offense last year has already shown improvement and Ryan Tannehill is flirting with becoming an elite quarterback. Settling on Lamar Miller also paid dividends but most impressive is what happened with the receivers. Other than Jarvis Landry there are all new receivers on the offense. Drafting DeVante Parker and acquiring Kenny Stills, Greg Jennings and Jordan Cameron made much more sense for the scheme. Mike Wallace did not fit in the offense as well despite scoring ten times last year. On paper it all looks much improved for the offense.

QUARTERBACK : Ryan Tannehill comes off a fine effort – 4045 passing yards and 27 touchdowns. He also reduced his interceptions to only 12 and coming into his fourth season has finally broken into the fantasy top ten. Jarvis Landry offers an established #1 receiver but all the new wideouts and Jordan Cameron could make Tannehill a fixture near the top for years to come.

RUNNING BACK : Lamar Miller’s third season finally saw him get the reins of the backfield and clearly outplay any need for a committee. He rushed for 1099 yards on 216 carries (5.1 YPC) and scored eight times. He also added 33 catches for 275 yards and another score. At only 24, the former fourth round pick has the look of a franchise back.

The Dolphins drafted Jay Ajayi in the fifth round after the Boise State back had plummeted in the draft on the news he had “bone on bone” in his knee. He’s been hampered with a hamstring strain and has otherwise been a disappointment in training camp. He’ll open the season no better than #3 or #4 among Miami running backs. Damien Williams is the back-up for Miller and LaMichael James could show up for a few plays per game as well. This is Miller’s team but the Fins only ranked 24th carries last year – up from dead last the previous season. The passing game take precedence here and that limits what Miller can do.

WIDE RECEIVER : The second round rookie Jarvis Landry was a big surprise last year when he ended with 84-758-5 as the preferred target for Tannehill. That’s where any similarity to 2014 ends. Mike Wallace is gone and the Fins drafted DeVante Parker with their 1.14 pick. The Louisville star has been little seen so far thanks to a foot issue that needed early summer surgery. The Fins are still hopeful he can play in Week 1 but that will soon become apparent with the injury report. At 6-3, he has all the size and speed that could make him a star in time.

Kenny Stills joined up to provide a deep threat to stretch the defense but has been quiet in camp and is not expected to be more than a #4 option when the season gets going. Greg Jennings is also on board to offer depth but the 32-year-old is on the downside of his career and hasn’t done much since leaving the Packers back in 2012.

TIGHT END : Jordan Cameron left the Browns after four seasons and topped out at 80-917-7 before missing six games last season because of a concussion. He signed for $15 million and two years so the Dolphins intend on using him on every down. Cameron’s outlook is cloudy only because there are now so many potential receivers in Miami.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: This is a nice place for Tannehill to open – against the worst defense versus quarterbacks last year. The Redskins were very strong against the run when at home and that limits Miller and even more so because the Fins are going to want to throw against this weak secondary. Tannehill, Landry and Cameron are all strong starts. This game will help determine the roles of Greg Jennings and Kenny Stills. Parker is still too risky to consider for a start but that may change soon.

Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 14 17 9 15 11 4
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 32 6 29 29 16 28

Washington Redskins

1 MIA —— 10 NO ——
2 STL —— 11 @CAR ——
3 @NYG —— 12 NYG ——
4 PHI —— 13 DAL ——
5 @ATL —— 14 @CHI ——
6 @NYJ —— 15 BUF ——
7 TB —— 16 @PHI ——
8 BYE —— 17 @DAL ——
9 @NE ——  
News | Statistics | Roster
WAS vs MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Kirk Cousins 250,2
RB Matt Jones 30 4-20
WR Pierre Garcon 5-70,1
WR DeSean Jackson 4-80,1
TE Vernon Davis 4-60
TE Jordan Reed 4-50

Pregame Notes: Jay Gruden’s first season was a disappointment and featured some surprises. There was the annual Chinese Fire Drill for quarterbacks that seemed to be a case of the front office trying to will Robert Griffin III into being a good quarterback while Gruden enjoyed the times he could use Kirk Cousins and eventually a few games thrown in with Colt McCoy just so no one got comfortable. Alfred Morris declined a little again and somehow Pierre Garcon went from a 113 catch stud to a 68 catch afterthought. The offseason has been mostly jokes about the dysfunction of the team. To prove the doubters wrong about the consistency of the team, they named Griffin the starter yet again and once he was concussed, they switched to Kirk Cousins not for the week but for the seasonjust in case Griffin though he had a chance to ever start again. There is even talk about dropping Griffin all together though he did survive the initial cutdown to 53.

QUARTERBACK : To the great benefit of the team, Kirk Cousins is the starter and Gruden is throwing his confidence behind him. The fourth round pick in the same year that Griffin was taken now looks like much less of a head scratcher of a selection. Cousins has never been more than a spot substitute so far though he started five games last year and threw at least two scores in all but one. After the turmoil of the summer, the Skins can finally get down to running the offense as it was designed and Cousins is the man for the job.

Despite such minimal play, Cousins already has four games over 300 yards and and he threw for 427 yards in Philly just last year.

RUNNING BACK : Alfred Morris is getting a little worse every year and only ran 265 times for 1074 yards last year with eight touchdowns. He is a holdover from the Shanahan days and has not had much competition for the starting job. That will change for 2015 with the drafting of Matt Jones. The 6-2, 231 lb. runner from Florida was impressive in camp and averaged 6.95 yards per carry in the preseason. Morris remains the primary back but that may not hold true by the end of the year. The Skins are already calling them a tandem in the backfield.

Just as important – Jones was signed under Gruden and can become his “guy”.

WIDE RECEIVER : DeSean Jackson’s first season in Washington went well – perhaps the only Redskin’s player that can claim that for 2014. He only caught 56 passes but gained 1169 yards and six scores while averaging an astounding 20.9 yards per catch. Pierre Garcon collapsed from a great 2013 season to just 68-752-3 in Gruden’s first year though his only 100 yard effort was when Cousins was the starter. The duo played better with Cousins and if he can remain healthy all season, the consistency should really benefit the wideouts. Andre Roberts fills out as the #3 but has not yet produced any fantasy relevant numbers.

TIGHT END : The Skins actually ranked 4th in tight end completions last season but those were split up between Niles Paul, Logan Paulsen and Jordan Reed. Paul was placed on IR already and Reed doesn’t spawn much confidence that he can remain healthy since he’s missed 14 games over his first two seasons. The Skins traded to get Derek Carrier from the 49ers. The third year player was a former college wideout but at 6-4, 241 is better suited as a tight end. He is the one to watch among the tight ends. I’ll assume Reed gets the work in week one but take note of Carrier if only for a dynasty consideration.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Miami defense is mostly average on the road but the Redskins offense has made most defenses look better than they are. The Dolphins allowed just one 300 yard game to a quarterback but that was in week 17 by Geno Smith and by no means a useful measurement. This is a great matchup for Cousins who should manage to throw at least one if not two scores. Morris faces a stingy defense and there will be some sharing with Jones making both a risk to rely on in week one. Morris will be the primary and the better play if only for this week. The Fins secondary is better than the ranking suggests – they gave up big games to stars like Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas to skew the stats but do not expect more than a moderate showing by any receiver.

Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 16 9 22 13 26 29
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 12 18 22 10 17 16

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