Game Predictions & Player Projections - JAC vs. IND

Game Predictions & Player Projections - JAC vs. IND


Game Predictions & Player Projections - JAC vs. IND

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Prediction: JAC 17, IND 27 Line: IND by 8.5)

UPDATE: Andrew Luck is questionable to play and had limited work all three practices. Dwayne Allen is a game time decision. Luck’s status is harder to ascertain since HC Chuck Pagano was less than forthcoming about his quarterback other than to say that he believed Luck would play. He said it in that way that sounded like coachspeak for “I’m not telling” and he did say “unless he was not able to play”. At this point, I am leaving his projections alone since he has been able to be limited in practices and is not in a sling for his shoulder. Check pregame inactives to make certain there are no surprises but he’s expected to play. Marquise Lee is out this week.

The Jaguars followed up their upset win over the Dolphins with a 31 point loss to the Patriots that wasn’t even as close as the score suggests. The Colts finally get their first win thanks to a missed two point try by the Titans and the offense finally started to move better. This is the easiest that it will get in Indianapolis. The Colts swept the Jaguars last year. They won 44-17 in Jacksonville and later 23-3 at home.

Jacksonville Jaguars

1 CAR 9-20 10 @BAL ——
2 MIA 23-20 11 TEN ——
3 @NE 17-51 12 SD ——
4 @IND —— 13 @TEN ——
5 @TB —— 14 IND ——
6 HOU —— 15 ATL ——
7 BUF —— 16 @NO ——
8 BYE —— 17 @HOU ——
9 @NYJ ——  
News | Statistics | Roster
JAC @ IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Blake Bortles 20 240,2
RB Chris Ivory 80,1 1-10
RB T.J. Yeldon 50 2-10
WR Allen Hurns 5-60,1
WR Allen Robinson 6-100,1
TE Julius Thomas
PK Jason Myers 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The first road game didn’t go well and now the Jaguars face a Colts team that is starting to at least resemble the 2014 offensive juggernaut. They still have yet to score a rushing touchdown and most of the passing stats have been accumulated during trash times in losses. The offensive line is still a problem along with Blake Bortles who still has yet to take the next step up in his development.

QUARTERBACK : While Blake Bortles has thrown five scores this year, his yardage remains only average and much of that came late in games. Aside from his two long scores to Allen Robinson in Week 2, there has been precious little positives about the passing offense. This is the same set of receivers from last year so it is no surprise that the results are similar to 2014. Until Bortles – who came in the league with much perceived talent – improves the Jaguars will remain in a struggle every week to compete.

RUNNING BACK : T.J. Yeldon had a predictably bad game in New England for his first road trip and only managed 11 carries for 33 yards. The Jaguars rarely use the running backs as receivers so it takes a god matchup that allows plenty of rushing for Yeldon to offer much fantasy value so far. He’s getting the lion’s share of the work but so far has just one game with more than 13 carries.

WIDE RECEIVER : Allen Robinson is the most talented wideout here and that is the problem – he gets double coverage usually and in New England only managed four catches for 68 yards even with the trash time. Allen Hurns scored there but cranks out around 60 to 70 yards each week with not much more upside. Robinson already has one big game this year but offers marginal stats otherwise. Hurns is consistent enough for a bye week cover but nothing else.

TIGHT END : Hard to believe he will be a savior but at least Julius Thomas will offer something new to the offense from last season. Thomas was able to get some limited practices in last week and could play here. I will hold him out for now and add him in if he can play. He is likely to take a week or two to get up to speed in this new offense that does not feature Peyton Manning. Clay Harbor caught a touchdown last week but that was the only game where a tight end had any catches. Thomas would be a good grab and stash in smaller leagues where he is on the waiver wire but only if you have roster room.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Colts have allowed four rushing scores so far but no runner has topped 57 yards. And those scores were mostly a function of receptions that ended near the goal line by their opponents. Yeldon has no better outlook here – moderate yardage and likely no touchdown. Bortles is never worth starting but he could post another couple of scores here if only later in the game. The Colts secondary has been victimized each week and Bortles should manage to reconnect with Robinson here. All five of the passing scores allowed by the Colts have gone to wide receivers.

Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 19 30 11 28 17 30
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 16 23 25 10 25 26

Indianapolis Colts

1 @BUF 14-27 10 BYE ——
2 NYJ 7-20 11 @ATL ——
3 @TEN 35-33 12 TB ——
4 JAC —— 13 @PIT ——
5 @HOU —— 14 @JAC ——
6 NE —— 15 HOU ——
7 NO —— 16 @MIA ——
8 @CAR —— 17 TEN ——
9 DEN ——  
News | Statistics | Roster
IND vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 20 300,2
RB Frank Gore 70,1 1-10
WR Phillip Dorsett 2-50,1
WR T.Y. Hilton 8-110
WR Donte Moncrief 6-80,1
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Colts finally notched their first win though it took facing a weak defense at home and even then it was just a two point win that very nearly went into overtime. But at least the Colts scored a lot of points and the rushing effort finally showed up. There is still a terrible problem with turnovers but at least the Colts are making progress on getting back to where everyone thought they would be in Week 1.

QUARTERBACK : Andrew Luck has thrown just as many touchdowns as Blake Bortles for roughly the same yardage and Luck dominates the NFL in one category – interceptions. He’s already thrown seven over three games and never fewer than two. The Bills and Jets both have good secondaries, but the Titans? Luck’s problem has been mostly a lack of time to throw plus when he does he too often has to hurry which caused problems downfield. Luck is the same talented quarterback as last year and he has no worse of receivers. But the offense is just slowly coming together.

RUNNING BACK : Frank Gore finally turned in a good effort for the Colts when he ran for 86 yards and two touchdowns on just 14 carries in the win over the Titans. Gore gets almost all the workload for the backfield but the Colts have hardly had the luxury of just running the ball in any game thus far. He is averaging 4.7 yards per carry – he just doesn’t get many runs and has nearly no role as a receiver.

WIDE RECEIVER : There are many surprises in this unit. Andre Johnson came in knowingly on the downside of his career but his production has been shockingly poor. He had no catches on his one target last week and totals just seven receptions for 51 yards on the year. Donte Moncrief looked like the #3 or even #4 wideout in the preseason but scored in each game so far and leads the Colts with 17 catches for 200 yards. No other Colts receiver scored more than once so far. T.Y. Hilton had a sore knee but is healthy now. He’s only caught four passes in each of the last two games though he ended with 94 yards versus the Titans thanks to a nice 48-yard reception.

Phillip Dorsett caught his first NFL touchdown last Sunday but remains well below fantasy significance with never more than 45 yards in a game. Moncrief has the lone 100 yard game here and Luck’s inability to top 260 passing yards is shorting the wideouts since he is spreading the ball around.

TIGHT END : There is still nearly no value here. Week 2 saw no passes thrown to a tight end and in the win over the Titans, they have their best game with Coby Fleener (4-51) and Jack Doyle (3-32) at least producing minor yardage. Dwayne Allen was inactive last week because of a sprained ankle. There’s no reason to give a start to any of these tight ends anyway.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: If Andrew Luck is going to break 300 passing yards, it will be in this game. The Jaguars have allowed over 350 passing yards and two scores to their last two opponents (MIA and NE). They also were shredded for four rushing scores in their first road game of the year last week. Luck, Hilton, Gore and Moncrief are must starts. Johnson may show up but so far the risk is to great to give him a start regardless of opponent.

Gaining Fantasy Points IND 13 25 9 23 32 19
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 22 26 20 23 31 17

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