Game Predictions & Player Projections - PHI vs. WAS

Game Predictions & Player Projections - PHI vs. WAS


Game Predictions & Player Projections - PHI vs. WAS

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Prediction: PHI 16, WAS 20 (Line: PHI by 3)

UPDATES: DeSean Jackson is out again this week and removed from the projections. DeMarco Murray was limited on Wednesday and then had full practices on Thursday and Friday. He is listed as questionable and is expected to be a game time decision as he was last week when he was yanked in pregame warmups. He is a risk to play and check pregame inactives to make sure that he is active.

Both the Redskins and Eagles are looking for their second win of the year. The Eagles come off their surprise upset in New York over the Jets. The Skins beat the visiting Rams but couldn’t hang with the Giants in New York. This will be a close game. These teams traded home wins in 2014. The Eagles won 37-34 in Philadelphia and the Redskins won 27-24 in Washington.

Philadelphia Eagles

1 @ATL 24-26 10 MIA ——
2 DAL 10-20 11 TB ——
3 @NYJ 24-17 12 @DET ——
4 @WAS —— 13 @NE ——
5 NO —— 14 BUF ——
6 NYG —— 15 ARI ——
7 @CAR —— 16 WAS ——
8 BYE —— 17 @NYG ——
9 @DAL ——  
News | Statistics | Roster
PHI @ WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Sam Bradford 200,1
RB Ryan Mathews 30 3-20
RB DeMarco Murray 20 2-10
RB Darren Sproles 10 5-20
WR Nelson Agholor 3-30
WR Jordan Matthews 6-70,1
WR Rueben Randle 6-80
TE Zach Ertz 4-40
PK Caleb Sturgis 3 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: In typical Eagles fashion, they lose at home and yet play much better on the road against a better team. Winning helps a lot and for once the rushing offense actually worked. All it took was losing DeMarco Murray for the week and going against the best defense they had yet faced. The passing offense has declined every week so far but it simply cannot get any worse. Cody Parker was placed on injured reserve because of a groin injury and Caleb Sturgis has replaced him.

QUARTERBACK : A win is a win but Sam Bradford had little to do with it. He only completed 14 of 28 passes for 118 yards and one touchdown. He has not scored more than once in any game and he’s brought all the wideout numbers down with him. Of his three passing touchdowns, only one went to a wideout. The other two ended up with running backs.

RUNNING BACK : DeMarco Murray missed last week with a hamstring strain though he was expected to play. Ryan Mathews went from no more than three carries to having 25 runs for 108 yards and catching two passes for 20 yards and a score. Exponentially more productive than what any other back had done considering Murray stands at 11 yards on 21 carries so far. Darren Sproles also had his first score of the year when he ran for 17 yards on 11 carries.

Now the messy backfield will be even worse since Mathews is due an increase in workload and yet the Eagles cannot dismiss where they put all their money and the guy who led the entire NFL in rushing for 2014. Even HC Chip Kelly was evasive when asked about the ongoing roles for the backs. This is a committee and it takes injuries to whittle it down to something reliable and individually productive. I’ll assume that Murray returns this week and update as needed. Murray’s magical season last year was made possible by his only healthy season. Now he cannot make it three games without missing time.

WIDE RECEIVER : For an offense that was very productive with wideouts, the state of the wideouts is dismal thanks to the reduced and less effective passing. Jordan Matthews holds all the fantasy value but was down to only 49 yards last week. No other wideout has gained more than 31 yards or scored in any game so far. Nelson Agholor brought in much potential but so far that has only been worth four catches for 36 yards. Last week against the Jets corners, the rookie had no catches on four targets.

TIGHT END : No fantasy value. Zach Ertz will have better days (assumedly) but so far never more than 46 yards in any game and no touchdowns. He’s averaging around three catches for 30 yards each week.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Redskins have been good on defense and only allowed single touchdowns to the two previous visiting quarterbacks. That matches up well with what Bradford has turned in every week. The Skins have been very good against the run though and given up just one rushing score and none while at home. No runner has gained more than 53 yards on them as well. The weakness of the defense is against wideouts since all four scores have been with that position. But only Matthews produces anything close to reliable stats. He is the only must start from this team this week. The backfield should return to the three-headed madness again and water down their efforts against a very good rushing defense that is allowing just 3.1 yards per carry.

Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 30 12 28 29 27 5
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 3 2 18 13 17 20

Washington Redskins

1 MIA 10-17 10 NO ——
2 STL 24-10 11 @CAR ——
3 @NYG 21-32 12 NYG ——
4 PHI —— 13 DAL ——
5 @ATL —— 14 @CHI ——
6 @NYJ —— 15 BUF ——
7 TB —— 16 @PHI ——
8 BYE —— 17 @DAL ——
9 @NE ——  
News | Statistics | Roster
WAS vs PHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Kirk Cousins 250,2
RB Matt Jones 40 1-10
WR Pierre Garcon 6-80,1
WR Andre Roberts 3-30
TE Jordan Reed 7-70,1
PK Dustin Hopkins 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Redskins schedule isn’t that bad but the defense fared worse once it left home and the offense has yet to do much more than use a different primary back each week with good success while the passing game struggles. The Skins make it look like a game in the fourth quarter last week because that’s the Giants trend this year but the passing game did little until later in the game. Already 0-1 in the division, dropping a home game to a weak Eagles team is setting the stage for yet another bad year that Jay Gruden might not survive.

QUARTERBACK : Kirk Cousins threw for 316 yards against the Giants but had just the one score – that’s all he’s done in all three games. And he threw two more interceptions. The return of DeSean Jackson will help, but the offense has just not looked sharp when they pass. Cousins remains well below fantasy relevancy.

RUNNING BACK : Maybe Darrel Young gets his chance this week? There are four Redskins running backs and three of them have taken turns producing big games. Alfred Morris is the “lead dog” according to HC Jay Gruden despite Morris only getting six carries last week. He broke out with 121 yards in the opener but then Week 2 witnessed Matt Jones score twice and gain 146 total yards. He was praised by the coaches and looked to be in line to become the next primary.

But… he fumbled.

Never mind that DeMarco Murray led the NFL last year with five fumbles lost. But anyone else fumbles and they are given a fantasy timeout as if they had not spent their lives playing the game and need the reminder to not fumble. Jones caught the bench like Jeremy Hill in Week 2 for the Bengals. In his place, special teamer Chris Thompson became the primary back since the team went to pass formations and he reeled off eight catches for 57 yards and one score that Matt Jones owners no doubt noted. Most of that did come on the final drive.

Morris is still the primary back at least in name. But Jones is the best talent here and the Redskins said as much just last week. Thompson got his 15 minutes of fame and it will go back to Morris and Jones this week.

WIDE RECEIVER : There is a chance that DeSean Jackson could return this week depending on practices and how he responds and that would put him one to two weeks earlier than initially expected. The Skins have been using a rotation to cover for Jackson and none of Ryan Grant, Jamison Crowder and Rashad Ross have stood out.

The lack luster passing has only resulted in one touchdown caught by any wideout and that was Pierre Garcon in Week 2. He’s good for five or six catches each week but he is only averaging 9.5 yards per catch. Cousins has been completely unable to connect on deep passes. Jackson’s return will test that. I’ll leave Jackson out of the projections and add him later if warranted.

TIGHT END : Jordan Reed has been a surprise so far. First – he is still healthy. Next, he has a team high 19 catches for 241 yards on the season with one score. He and Garcon get the most targets on the team and Reed does more with his.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Eagles are weakest in the secondary where all five touchdowns have gone to wide receivers. No running back has scored on them so far though the Eagles play softer on the road against the run. Cousins has his best chance for more than one passing score and the return of Jackson would help since he’d be facing his old team again. With the split in the backfield, Morris and Jones are only flex plays and risky ones at that. Garcon is a must start this week and so would Jackson if he was healthy and practicing in full.Reed is also worth a start since Witten had a decent game versus the Eagles and they’ve not otherwise faced a receiving tight end.

Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 29 11 26 8 24 23
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 19 6 28 4 27 10

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