Game Predictions & Player Projections - IND vs. CAR

Game Predictions & Player Projections - IND vs. CAR


Game Predictions & Player Projections - IND vs. CAR

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Prediction: IND 20, CAR 24 (Line: CAR by 7)

The only thing worse about the Colts being 3-4 with a two game losing streak is that they still lead the AFC South. The Colts are actually 2-1 in road games as well. The 6-0 Panthers are ripe for a loss and nearly fell in Seattle but pulled out their biggest win of the season in Week 6. This is a good game to show how much the NFL changes in just one year. This is the Monday night game.

Indianapolis Colts

1 @BUF 14-27 10 BYE ——
2 NYJ 7-20 11 @ATL ——
3 @TEN 35-33 12 TB ——
4 JAC 16-13 13 @PIT ——
5 @HOU 27-20 14 @JAC ——
6 NE 27-34 15 HOU ——
7 NO 21-27 16 @MIA ——
8 @CAR —— 17 TEN ——
9 DEN ——  
News | Statistics | Roster
IND @ CAR Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 30 280,2
RB Frank Gore 40 1-10
WR T.Y. Hilton 7-80
WR Donte Moncrief 5-60,1
TE Dwayne Allen 3-20
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: There is speculation that Chuck Pagano could be the next coach to lose his job and certainly the Colts have fallen the furthest from expectations of any team. Playing the Panthers, Broncos and Falcons next won’t make it any better. If the Colts don’t vastly improve quickly, the net four games will ensure that the Colts won’t have a winning record this year. Fortunately that doesn’t really matter in the AFC South.

QUARTERBACK : In fantasy terms, Andrew Luck returned to form with three multiple touchdown games in a row and topped 300 yards and three scores in just these last two weeks – both losses. And the Colts tendency to start so slowly means Luck looks terrible by halftime and then spends the entire second half throwing as often as possible. Luck has thrown over 40 passes three times this season.

RUNNING BACK : Frank Gore isn’t bad, he’s just under-used almost every week. In the loss to the Saints, Gore was only given nine carries but gained 43 yards. He had five catches for 32 yards to salvage a little fantasy value but Gore’s only been in two games with more than 15 carries. Oddly enough, his three touchdowns this year all came in road games. Ahmad Bradshaw is the clear #2 now but that has never meant more than 16 yards in any game.

WIDE RECEIVER : Phillip Dorsett suffered a fractured ankle/fibula in the loss to the Saints and is out for at least four to six weeks and could be longer. He did not receive any ligament damage so his chances of an eventual return are good. But the rookie has been only a bit player all year and never had more than two catches in any game as the #4 wideout. T.Y. Hilton finally blew up for 2015 when he gained 150 yards on just four catches and scored twice against the Saints. Hilton also scored the previous week when he posted six catches for 74 yards on the Patriots.

Andre Johnson remains a distant #3 in this offense and hasn’t topped 45 yards in any game other than his revenge party in Houston. Donte Moncrief is the lead scorer with five touchdowns and two came in the most recent two games. But his yardage rarely counts for much and his last road game was in Houston when he had just one catch while Johnson went off.

TIGHT END : Minimal value this year. After notching 18 touchdowns in 2014, the tight ends have only accounted for two this year and just one each for Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. There is no consistency here other than 20 yards per game.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: This would be tough enough but playing in Carolina makes it even worse. The Panthers have only allowed five passing scores all year but they have not faced any top passers. Even when they went against the Saints it was Luke McCown starting. Luck is on a string of multiple touchdown games and he’s good enough for at least two scores here. The rushing defense is about average and a little better at home but the Colts have been unable to generate much there anyway. Gore is still worth a start for moderate yardage but anything more is not realistic give his poor games against defenses as good as the Panthers. T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief are worth starting this week but they’re facing one of the best secondaries so temper any expectations that they can do more than moderate yardage with a chance of a score.

Gaining Fantasy Points IND 11 31 5 19 32 27
Preventing Fantasy Points CAR 3 20 4 11 11 8

Carolina Panthers

1 @JAC 20-9 10 @TEN ——
2 HOU 24-17 11 WAS ——
3 NO 27-22 12 @DAL ——
4 @TB 37-23 13 @NO ——
5 BYE —— 14 ATL ——
6 @SEA 27-23 15 @NYG ——
7 PHI 27-16 16 @ATL ——
8 IND —— 17 TB ——
9 GB ——  
News | Statistics | Roster
CAR vs IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Cam Newton 50,1 230,1
RB Jonathan Stewart 90,1 1-10
WR Philly Brown 3-40
WR Ted Ginn 4-60
TE Greg Olsen 6-60,1
PK Graham Gano 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Panthers looked great taking down the Eagles and now are featured on the Monday night game against a struggling Colts team. The defense has been stellar and never allowed more than 23 points to any opponent while the offense has been just good enough to get the win. Four of the six wins came with a margin of victory of less than a touchdown. What could impact this game is that Week 9 is a short week and the Panthers host the Packers. But hard to expect them to overlook the Colts while playing on the national stage with a chance to show the world that they belong in the ranks of the unbeaten.

QUARTERBACK : Cam Newton is getting the most from his offense that is made up of average wideouts and one good tight end. He throws for one or two scores every game with moderate yardage and added a rushing touchdown in four of the last five games. Facing the Seahawks and Eagles these last two weeks led to five interceptions but he still “threw one, ran one” as he does almost every week. Against the weaker defenses like the Colts, he’s good for two scores.

RUNNING BACK : Jonathan Stewart waited until this toughest two games of the year but versus the Seahawks he ran for 78 yards and two scores and then posted 125 yards on 24 carries in the win over the Eagles. He has no role as a receiver – none of the running backs do. But Stewart also lost out on the touchdown that Newton ran in, the one that Mike Tolbert ran in and the one that Tolbert caught. Seeing Stewart with two straight games with 20+ carries is going to have to be enough.

WIDE RECEIVER : This is one of the worst units in the NFL and that combines for just five touchdowns and very minimal yardage. Ted Ginn offers the only real fantasy value and even that is usually about 50 yards per game and a score only when facing a weak secondary. Aside from Ginn, no other wideout gets more than four targets per game and none have gained more than 60 yards.

TIGHT END : Greg Olsen was held to just three receptions for 65 yards last week and he turned in two weeks of sub-30 yard production. But he’s the primary receiver in this offense and twice he turned in over 130 yards and a score. Stopping Olsen does not stop the Panthers but if any player is going to have a big game – it will be him.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: This is where things get favorable. The Colts have allowed at last one passing score to every opponent and four threw for around 300 yards or more. The Colts have also given up eight rushing touchdowns so look for a standard game from Newton with “one rush, one pass” scoring as a bottom line. Stewart is worth a start this week as well since he is at home and facing a defense that has been weak against running backs. There is a chance that Stewart could score but it could just as well end up with Newton or Tolbert again. Olsen is a must start and the Colts have been generally good against the position and even held Rob Gronkowski to 50 yards and one touchdown. No tight end has turned in more than the 68 yards by Delanie Walker back in Week 3.

Gaining Fantasy Points CAR 6 28 30 5 11 3
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 22 27 25 21 22 15

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